Europe's Largest Bank going Lehman/ Thelma & Louise - Over the Precipice

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DB?p=DB&.tsrc=fin-srch

A Trillion Dollar Bank with a stock market cap of $14 Billion.

A Trillion Dollar Bank whose stock market cap is lower now (Now, Today) than during the worst parts of 2007/8/9.

What'sa going on ?

Does it mean anything ?

It meant something in 2008. I had an account with Washington Mutual, and it was by studying the stock price that I got worried enough to drive 600 miles, to close the account.

I closed the account Saturday September 20, 2008. WaMu ceased to exist on Thursday, September 25, 2008. There was about $20K involved, and for me that's a lot of money.

I had zero assurance of anything.

As it turned out, the bankrupt corpse of WaMu was assigned to JP Morgan Chase. JPM paid about $1.5 Billion to somebody for the privilege of inheriting a whole bunch of bank branches and customers.

The US government (i.e. the tax-payer) took on all of the value-less and high-risk credit derivatives, from WaMu. It was the ownership of those credit derivatives that was part of the story of WaMu going down.

Ever since then I have been a believer in using stock market cap to provide information - on the downside.

The bubble companies like Uber, WeWork, SalesForce ... a separate subject. It is WIERD that they have higher stock market caps than Deutsch Bank.

A stock price of $60 would give Deutsch Bank a market cap of $124 Billion.

The market cap @ $14 Billion is an indication that the market thinks Deutsch Bank has a $110 Billion problem.

Anyway, I think the next 3 to 6 months will be very interesting for Deutsch Bank.

Interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing. I'm ready to buy when the big sale hits.

A Tale of 2 Banks.

JPMorgan.

Market Cap @ $355 Billion.

Total Assets on Paper, $2,622,532,000,000 - $2.6 Trill.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/balance-sheet?p=JPM

for Deutsch Bank -
Total Assets on Paper, $1,348,137,000,000 - $1.35 Trill.


I think the important thing to watch is the ratio of Bank Assets to Stock Market Cap.


For WaMu, I was real worried when the market cap fell to $10 Billion, with $300 Billion in assets. (1:30 ratio)

DB right now is $14 Billion vs. $1.35 ... 1:96 ratio.

At the end-end, WaMu, $5 Billion "price" for JPM, $300 Bill assets ... 1:60 ratio.

The market (shows signs of being)/ is more scared of DB right now than they were of WaMu in the days before it was de-listed. - based on the assets-market cap ratio.

If I wanted to be super geeky about it I would get similar info for Lehman, Bear-Stearns, Long Term Capital Management, etc.

How long before the whole house of Cards falls?

Im'One said:

How long before the whole house of Cards falls?

Click to expand...

That depends on the definitions of "falls" and "house of Cards".

I would say that the collapse implied by "falls" is very much happening-as-we-speak - in the US.

As far as DB - well that's just a pleasant diversion ! (Except for the people that are depending on them.)

To really answer the question about DB, we would need more info.

if DB has written $50+ Trillion in credit derivatives, that means that other, smaller organizations are depending on that very same financial insurance.

You would need a map of all the organizations involved.

The House of Cards would fall before the map was done. It would probably end up being a history lesson, not a prediction.

Everyone knows deutsch bank is garbage.. totally toxic books.. its just a ticking time bomb waiting for this massive market correction.

The last 10 years theyve done nothing to stop the bubble and its going to blow up.. i highly doubt the greenback is going to stay the global reserve currency, id be worried if i were in amurica with how the puppet trump is playing your hand. Get ready for a fall.

Brexit might kill the eu zone as we knew it. Cashless society here we come.

Lost in a SOG said:

Everyone knows deutsch bank is garbage.. totally toxic books.. its just a ticking time bomb waiting for this massive market correction.

Click to expand...

Most Americans have not heard of Deutsch Bank.

I think there's a good chance that some DB news event will wake people up enough to cause a "re-evaluation" of stock market prices. i.e. that the "Lehman moment" will involve DB.


{ Closer to home there's an un-related but scary news event. California's first major fire of 2019. Went from 0 to 1700 acres in 5 hours, between Sacramento & Clearlake. Sunday morning update might be a kick in the teeth. }


Found this about DB

"The euro “might start to unravel” if Deutsche Bank collapses according to respected financial journalist Matthew Lynn. “It all has a very 2008 feel to it …” he warns in the Telegraph where he outlines his growing concerns about Deutsche Bank, concerns we have written about in recent months. He writes:

Our image of German banks, and the German economy, as completely rock solid is so strong that it takes a lot to persuade us they might be in trouble."

https://news.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/euro-might-start-unravel-deutsche-bank-collapse/





"In fact, if Deutsche does go down, it is looking increasingly likely that it will take Merkel with it – and quite possibly the euro as well.

Merkel is playing a very dangerous game with Deutsche – and one that could easily go badly wrong. If her refusal to sanction a bail-out is responsible for a Deutsche collapse that could easily end her Chancellorship. But if she rescues it, the euro might start to unravel. It is hardly surprising that the markets are watching the relentless decline in its share price with mounting horror. "

https://news.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/euro-might-start-unravel-deutsche-bank-collapse/

eric holder help jp accountable for their actions in 2008 and fined em 13 billion that they only paid half of and it was a fucking tax write off…so we the people paid the fine….thanks eric!!!

So how do we make money from it ?

(The collapse of DB)

Some would say 'sell short', but short-sellers sometimes find themselves trading with people with 1 million times more resources.

Who benefits if DB collapses ? Other German banks - maybe.

Who is hurt if DB collapses - Who was depending on DB, via credit derivative contracts ? Other German banks - definitely.

I think some of the banks on that list will benefit from a DB BK or bail-out.



And some will be the German WaMu.

https://www.german-way.com/travel-and-tourism/banks-money/top-german-banks/