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Speculation about Legalization and What it May Bring

DuskrayTroubador

Well-known member
Veteran
IF it happens, that is. I think a lot of people take for granted the idea that it's guaranteed to happen... Also, if it does, it's certainly going to be set up so that its rigged for corporate cronies and other fat cats. That's what the Schedule II nonsense that all the fucking ignorant sheep are begging for entails... everyone goes to jail except big pharma because it becomes their property. It's just a ploy for more control marketed to morons as a loosening of the grip.

That said, a few common misconceptions to clear up and things to keep in mind:

1. Cannabis is NOT the same thing/market as alcohol, for a few reasons:

- Plenty of people are fine drinking PBR and Bud Light, in large part because a percentage of alcohol will get you the same drunk as the equivalent percentage from craft or quality booze. Not very many people, even PBR drinkers, are okay with shitty weed.

- Cannabis, like it or not, isn't the same sort of social catalyst that booze is. Yes people get stoned and have good conversations, but there simply isn't the hundreds of people spending a hundred dollars each buying rounds of shots at bars on weekends sort of market for cannabis. Yes there are cannabis clubs or whatever, but they don't have anything close to the lively, wild night out vibe and market that bars do. There also isn't a huge number of people who spend 6 or 8 consecutive hours with joints in their hands like people do with drinks. I think, with the exception of seasoned tokers, it's easier for people to get too high in the sense of not being comfortable (and takes less time) than for them to get too drunk.

- Organic booze isn't really a thing, except for a very small percentage of wines. People aren't nearly as concerned about organic or otherwise healthy booze as they are organically grown weed. Moreover, it isn't really possible to force a plot of land to produce the maximum yield at the minimum input/expense while growing organically; the close proximity of plants alone is likely if not certain to force the need for heavy-duty fungicides to prevent widespread disease.

2. There is no telling how big or small the market will be. Yes, some people (pussies) refuse to buy or smoke weed until it's legal. But there are also a lot of people -- more people than you think -- who simply don't like smoking weed. Lots of those people go to bars frequently to drink. On the other hand, there also exist a bunch of people who aren't big drinkers but are total stoners. The point is that nobody can really predict what the demand will be or "how many acres" it will take to meet the nation's demand. All that talk is nothing but talk.

3. (Really, really) good weed isn't as plentiful as people think. Nor is NorCal the only place that grows/can sell good pot. In fact, I think that most of the people who think so are the same yuppies who assured all the other kids in elementary school that the shoes they had on were far cooler than everyone else's shoes. Seriously, though. At least as far as med/rec dispensary weed is concerned, most of it was pretty goddamn average. Lots of hype about dogshit (I'd say dirt, but that's an insult to dirt as good dirt is something to be genuinely excited about).

Not every strain is equal in this regard, either. Generally speaking, the most potent of strains tend not to be the heaviest yielders. Sensi Star, for example, is very much a medium-yield plant.

Plus a lot of people growing don't have the skills to bring weed out at its best, which leads us to the final point I want to mention right now:

4. Not any fat-cat or clown with daddy's money can grow quality pot. Nor can they read an instruction manual that details a feeding schedule and soil mix down to the finest details. Growing is more of an art than a science. Reading and copy soil recipes and feeding regimens don't do anything to teach "growers" what it is in their particular grows and locations that they're responding to. People who just think they can read scientific and detailed instructions are in for a rude awakening when they can't figure out why their by-the-book cultivated bitch-made plants are blowing over in the wind, molding after one day of rain, or producing buds that don't stand out at all.




Truth be told, I don't think federal legalization is going to happen within the next decade at least, probably not even within the next 15 years. Maybe longer, maybe never. But if it does, I think that lots of big companies involved are going to be super disappointed in their actual revenue vs projected revenue because their products are likely to be dogshit and weed is one of the few things where people not only recognize but really appreciate and will spend significantly more for quality.

In a society where people have been sold on shitty quality food, booze, houses, cars, etc., I don't think people are going to be sold for long on shitty weed. Then again, lots of people are smoking average weed and thinking it's spectacular, but those are just idiots with flashy shoes -- but there are a lot of people who genuinely want the dankest dank because they actually care. The novelty of the "pre-rolled pack of joints from the gas station" will quickly fade, I think.

Also, if you don't roll your own joints as it is I judge you hard.
 

CaptainDankness

Well-known member
Quality will definitely go down with big business, of course most people won't care as most people drink cheap alcohol. Really it does get you to the same place, but I prefer a decent whiskey.

Of course if we do get schedule 2 marijuana forget about smoking weed, the best case scenario is big pharma will release a vaporizer and sell refill tubes.
 

igrowone

Well-known member
Veteran
interesting post, i think we've seen this info in other places, but this is a rather nice summary
which leads to the question how things stand in the current legal states
california and colorado stand out with the relatively open recreational markets
fortunes being made/lost in the corporate rec shops? or are the old hands keeping their game above the new wannabes?
 

Cvh

Well-known member
Supermod
Free ☕
In the end big corporate will take over the largest part of the market. Leaving only a very small niche market for special, high-end quality products.

Be honest you don't want to buy your beer, cigarettes, wine, etc... from some local 'farmer' sold through a dispensary. Checking it first for purity and quality...
You want it to be able to just place it in your cart in your local grocery store with the rest of your groceries.

I'm from Western-Europe and we are very closely watching the legalisation evolution in America both political and economical. This is the goldrush all over. The greenrush. In the end big corporate takes over the market leaving the rest scraping by for existence. Get out of that ratrace now and get into the nichemarket. Be the one that sells the shovels and pickaxes to the goldseekers.

In my personal belief it will take less then 15yrs before the entire market crashes.
I can already see the first cracks appearing while Cannabis is not even legal on a federal level in America.
In the end a kilo will be worth in the same line as a kilo tobacco, shit to nothing...
 

Easy7

Active member
Veteran
There is a huge market for shitty weed. Every cartel knows that. What it is about is belief. People must believe in their purchased product. So that is where advertisement comes into play.

Most people don't know much about growing because they get very wrapped up in all the beliefs and counter arguments. Which strain, how it's grown, all create a product. A product is useless. A belief can be sold. Media relies 100% on belief.

Yes there is a stereotype of drug culture of freeing onesself from a repressive belief system. Just to create beliefs to repress others. Forums have been free and repressive. I've seen a lot of ego over the years. It's easier for some to hold onto false beliefs than learn. Everyone wants soul crushing weed, bash in someone elses ego, but not theirs. Their ego rides high!

It will come down to the best bang for the buck. Ya maybe a higher priced product smells more rank, might even get higher. But is it really worth more money? Smell means nothing to cannabinoids. White buds don't mean more globular heads. Stalks laying on flowers without heads, don't get any effects.

It's going to be a market of who bullshits the best. Cause that is capitalism. That's what America does and it doesn't matter what's truth or really going on. It's who's poster girl gets the most boners. Who's the loudest most obnoxious bud waver.

I just want a simple grow so I can enjoy my own time alone. Enjoy something for myself. They aren't going to let me, a felon, get a chance in an industry they are uncertain about. Plus, people throw around smear campaigns and cannabis can really let some people blabber on and on about all their issues with whatever or whoever. It's going to be an ugly business..like puppy mills for plants.
 

DuskrayTroubador

Well-known member
Veteran
In the end big corporate will take over the largest part of the market. Leaving only a very small niche market for special, high-end quality products.

Be honest you don't want to buy your beer, cigarettes, wine, etc... from some local 'farmer' sold through a dispensary. Checking it first for purity and quality...
You want it to be able to just place it in your cart in your local grocery store with the rest of your groceries.

I'm from Western-Europe and we are very closely watching the legalisation evolution in America both political and economical. This is the goldrush all over. The greenrush. In the end big corporate takes over the market leaving the rest scraping by for existence. Get out of that ratrace now and get into the nichemarket. Be the one that sells the shovels and pickaxes to the goldseekers.

In my personal belief it will take less then 15yrs before the entire market crashes.
I can already see the first cracks appearing while Cannabis is not even legal on a federal level in America.
In the end a kilo will be worth in the same line as a kilo tobacco, shit to nothing...


Actually I do buy just about everything from local farmers, including wine.
 

DuskrayTroubador

Well-known member
Veteran
There is a huge market for shitty weed. Every cartel knows that. What it is about is belief. People must believe in their purchased product. So that is where advertisement comes into play.

Most people don't know much about growing because they get very wrapped up in all the beliefs and counter arguments. Which strain, how it's grown, all create a product. A product is useless. A belief can be sold. Media relies 100% on belief.

Yes there is a stereotype of drug culture of freeing onesself from a repressive belief system. Just to create beliefs to repress others. Forums have been free and repressive. I've seen a lot of ego over the years. It's easier for some to hold onto false beliefs than learn. Everyone wants soul crushing weed, bash in someone elses ego, but not theirs. Their ego rides high!

It will come down to the best bang for the buck. Ya maybe a higher priced product smells more rank, might even get higher. But is it really worth more money? Smell means nothing to cannabinoids. White buds don't mean more globular heads. Stalks laying on flowers without heads, don't get any effects.

It's going to be a market of who bullshits the best. Cause that is capitalism. That's what America does and it doesn't matter what's truth or really going on. It's who's poster girl gets the most boners. Who's the loudest most obnoxious bud waver.

I just want a simple grow so I can enjoy my own time alone. Enjoy something for myself. They aren't going to let me, a felon, get a chance in an industry they are uncertain about. Plus, people throw around smear campaigns and cannabis can really let some people blabber on and on about all their issues with whatever or whoever. It's going to be an ugly business..like puppy mills for plants.

I thought that brick weed wasn't really sold much anymore? I mean obviously it's still out there, but I thought it was a dying thing?

I also don't think advertising for products is as effective as it used to be. Political clickbait/headlines have certainly gotten more effective, but advertising for products I'm not so sure.

I know a lot of people who don't even watch TV anymore.
 

WelderDan

Well-known member
Veteran
If legalization means I can grow my own, I don't really care who markets what or how they do it. People will always buy weed. Most people don't have the time, the patience or the knowledge to grow, and they would rather just fork over the cash. Which is fine. The market already targets those types and they will be happy.

And if legalization means that my only choice is to buy it or continue to grow it illegally, well I've already been doing that anyway, so nothing really changes for me.

Time will tell.
 

brendon420

Member
wake me when the govt gets something right...without pretense and agenda. i love public schools. and public bathrooms. so thanks for that uSthey
 

Kaskadian

Active member
Veteran
I grew most of my life illegally, and I've also grown legally/medically. I'm not going to stop growing regardless of what the legal climate is where I'm at. I don't sell my bud, but I sure as hell enjoy it with my wife and a couple close friends so profit isn't what's on my mind.

I'm waiting for Phillip Morris or one of the big tobacco companies to sink their claws into it and attempt to start trademarking strains and pushing the smaller players out of the business. They'll be mass producing garbage legal brick weed and a lot of people will be willing to purchase it. I live in Oregon and most dispensaries here sell garbage; it's just as bad or worse in Washington state. Even though I'm not in the business I feel for those who are running into troubles making a living because of all the big money pushing people on the outside.
 
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