-
Happy Birthday ICMag! Been 20 years since Gypsy Nirvana created the forum! We are celebrating with a 4/20 Giveaway and by launching a new Patreon tier called "420club". You can read more here.
-
Important notice: ICMag's T.O.U. has been updated. Please review it here. For your convenience, it is also available in the main forum menu, under 'Quick Links"!
What is your assessment of the current economy?
- Thread starter Tudo
- Start date
White Beard
Active member
I think our economy is precarious. Those making 75,000$ are doing alright, though many are overextended, and dependent on things staying predictable. Those making less than that are engaged in a never-ending game of triage: what can I / must I do without? Which plans/projects/tools/future possibilities can be kept, and which must be scrapped or salvaged; which dreams sacrificed, which practicalities preserved.
Rents, you may have heard, are too damn high. Rates are too damn high. The cost of *everything* is too damn high. Reagan made it “morning in America again”, and by the time he left the White House virtually everything in the US had been turned into profit centers. We’re in a situation now where rents are beyond people’s ability to pay...and one reason is the way real estate is handled under tax law, and commercial real estate specifically.
The tax handling of commercial properties got changed so that unrented properties could be claimed as losses; this meant that property owners can charge whatever they like - and if no one pays it, they take it as a tax credit...so they get their money either way.
I bring this up because this is emblematic. Beyond the damage this does to communities by making residential and retail space too expensive for startups and residents old & new, it encourages consolidation, and big players emerge. Big players suppress local income, burden local infrastructure, and take sales earnings out of the local tax base as expensive parasites.
Same thing happened to health care when employer insurance starts to become more widely available, and similar deck-stacking has been going for a similar period. On the flip side, the post-PATCO state of labor in the US has suppressed wages for earning Americans (distinct from salaried and financially-independent Americans) for the last 40 years.
These things lead to our current state of multiple overlapping crises, as I see it. The areas I just mentioned - rents, health care, suppressed wages - created a situation in which the need for more money rises uncontrollably due to demand not from the market, but from the rentiers and the wallet-keepers, and these form a far greater “tax” on personal wealth than overt acts of government. We are reaching the point where the irresistible force of needing a place to live and work and the means to stay alive meets the immovable object of an over-extracted population unable to bear further imposed expense.
Unlike those comfortably above this, these folks can’t survive a continuation of the status quo. Unfortunately, they also can’t survive the wrong kind of change. This gives us a substantial portion of the population endangered by the comfort of those better off, and that’s a dangerous place for a lot of people to be.
All this is going on while the political events unfold and take up the spotlight, we have our primary form of government under attack by those sent to save it, we have criminal admissions on TV, and accompanying dares that anyone try to do anything about it, we have Congress divided against itself, we have a justice system that has allowed itself to be captured and weaponized. And we have the trade posturing.
All this makes for a very unstable economy: anything could send things crashing down and lead to a loss of value that makes the ‘29 Crash & Great Depression look like a fine spring day. The main reason it hasn’t is we’ve gotten much better at stimulant-sedative treatment...and that ‘strategy’ could reach point of failure at any moment.
At least that’s how I see it.
Rents, you may have heard, are too damn high. Rates are too damn high. The cost of *everything* is too damn high. Reagan made it “morning in America again”, and by the time he left the White House virtually everything in the US had been turned into profit centers. We’re in a situation now where rents are beyond people’s ability to pay...and one reason is the way real estate is handled under tax law, and commercial real estate specifically.
The tax handling of commercial properties got changed so that unrented properties could be claimed as losses; this meant that property owners can charge whatever they like - and if no one pays it, they take it as a tax credit...so they get their money either way.
I bring this up because this is emblematic. Beyond the damage this does to communities by making residential and retail space too expensive for startups and residents old & new, it encourages consolidation, and big players emerge. Big players suppress local income, burden local infrastructure, and take sales earnings out of the local tax base as expensive parasites.
Same thing happened to health care when employer insurance starts to become more widely available, and similar deck-stacking has been going for a similar period. On the flip side, the post-PATCO state of labor in the US has suppressed wages for earning Americans (distinct from salaried and financially-independent Americans) for the last 40 years.
These things lead to our current state of multiple overlapping crises, as I see it. The areas I just mentioned - rents, health care, suppressed wages - created a situation in which the need for more money rises uncontrollably due to demand not from the market, but from the rentiers and the wallet-keepers, and these form a far greater “tax” on personal wealth than overt acts of government. We are reaching the point where the irresistible force of needing a place to live and work and the means to stay alive meets the immovable object of an over-extracted population unable to bear further imposed expense.
Unlike those comfortably above this, these folks can’t survive a continuation of the status quo. Unfortunately, they also can’t survive the wrong kind of change. This gives us a substantial portion of the population endangered by the comfort of those better off, and that’s a dangerous place for a lot of people to be.
All this is going on while the political events unfold and take up the spotlight, we have our primary form of government under attack by those sent to save it, we have criminal admissions on TV, and accompanying dares that anyone try to do anything about it, we have Congress divided against itself, we have a justice system that has allowed itself to be captured and weaponized. And we have the trade posturing.
All this makes for a very unstable economy: anything could send things crashing down and lead to a loss of value that makes the ‘29 Crash & Great Depression look like a fine spring day. The main reason it hasn’t is we’ve gotten much better at stimulant-sedative treatment...and that ‘strategy’ could reach point of failure at any moment.
At least that’s how I see it.
*Good Post White Beard -
When the very people the government is giving huge contracts to are dodging taxes - what sort of message does that send to the people? - and how badly does that effect the economy?
UK government pays millions to firms that use tax havens
Report from thinktank Demos finds that 24 out of 35 ‘strategic suppliers’ operate in offshore jurisdictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-government-pays-millions-strategic-suppliers
*probably a network of old boys school 'chums' divvying out the contracts to each other from the political elite to their peers in business -
When the very people the government is giving huge contracts to are dodging taxes - what sort of message does that send to the people? - and how badly does that effect the economy?
UK government pays millions to firms that use tax havens
Report from thinktank Demos finds that 24 out of 35 ‘strategic suppliers’ operate in offshore jurisdictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-government-pays-millions-strategic-suppliers
*probably a network of old boys school 'chums' divvying out the contracts to each other from the political elite to their peers in business -
Stagnated.
Its all a giant farce. The next crash will be a big one. First everyone needs to run up their credit on new cars and homes. Then the feds can do the flip again.
50% of workers make $32k or less
1/3 Americans cant afford a $400 out of pocket emergency
Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. Middle class wages are stagnant.
Billionaires paid a lower tax rate than the middle class in 2018
Income and wealth inequality are at record highs
Men are retreating from the workforce
Upward mobility is declining
In summary its shit. And it's a bubble that will eventually burst.
1/3 Americans cant afford a $400 out of pocket emergency
Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. Middle class wages are stagnant.
Billionaires paid a lower tax rate than the middle class in 2018
Income and wealth inequality are at record highs
Men are retreating from the workforce
Upward mobility is declining
In summary its shit. And it's a bubble that will eventually burst.
St. Phatty
Active member
The kind of Joke that's not funny.
I talk to young people working in stores -
* living in a garage
* if they make too much money they lose sh-t free health care for sh-t super-expensive "health" care.
* paycheck to paycheck, can't save money
* to get a degree, they have to go DEEP into debt.
* Guy's girlfriend has a chronic pain condition, and the doctors have cut off all her meds - to "protect her". So now they are a sitting duck for street drugs, which means trusting their lives to the ability of a stranger to titrate Fentanyl.
Worst of all -
American organizations, from Boeing, to the entire health care industry, have completely abandoned normal considerations of Quality & Quality Control.
It's OK if they deliver Sh-t to the customer, as long as they get paid.
Boeing 737 Max is one example. Boeing corporate decided in the late 90's to de-prioritize Safety. = Corporate Suicide.
American so called Missile Defense is another example. Shooting down TWA Flight 800 in 1998 was kind of a dead give away.
In the case of Death Care, they have your Social Security number - so if you don't pay, your credit rating is trashed.
Most recently, the Fed has started QE4 but is very slow to announce it.
It showed up in the first Fed report in September (the Wednesday Assets chart.)
They started QE1 because the economy was like a car engine that couldn't turn over, in 2009.
Now supposedly the eCONomy is going well - and they have to start a new QE ?
They have officially announced the $60 Billion a month policy - but if you look at the Wednesday Assets chart, there's much more to it.
Meanwhile, Israel is running the US government foreign policy, AND domestic policy (Holocaust Denial has been written into law in about 2/3 of US states.)
It's a sick-fvck economy - in a large nation with a huge military that is unable to admit the most basic facts of its existence.
Almost seems appropriate to have Trump in the White House.
Hillary bashing Tulsi Gabbard makes it very obvious how Trump got there.
The Fed did accidentally verify the stereotype of the US being run by Jewish bankers.
They shut down for a holiday on Yom Kippur, Wednesday August 9.
Have you ever worked in a corporation that took Yom Kippur as a holiday ?
Why not Eid Mubarak ?
I talk to young people working in stores -
* living in a garage
* if they make too much money they lose sh-t free health care for sh-t super-expensive "health" care.
* paycheck to paycheck, can't save money
* to get a degree, they have to go DEEP into debt.
* Guy's girlfriend has a chronic pain condition, and the doctors have cut off all her meds - to "protect her". So now they are a sitting duck for street drugs, which means trusting their lives to the ability of a stranger to titrate Fentanyl.
Worst of all -
American organizations, from Boeing, to the entire health care industry, have completely abandoned normal considerations of Quality & Quality Control.
It's OK if they deliver Sh-t to the customer, as long as they get paid.
Boeing 737 Max is one example. Boeing corporate decided in the late 90's to de-prioritize Safety. = Corporate Suicide.
American so called Missile Defense is another example. Shooting down TWA Flight 800 in 1998 was kind of a dead give away.
In the case of Death Care, they have your Social Security number - so if you don't pay, your credit rating is trashed.
Most recently, the Fed has started QE4 but is very slow to announce it.
It showed up in the first Fed report in September (the Wednesday Assets chart.)
They started QE1 because the economy was like a car engine that couldn't turn over, in 2009.
Now supposedly the eCONomy is going well - and they have to start a new QE ?
They have officially announced the $60 Billion a month policy - but if you look at the Wednesday Assets chart, there's much more to it.
Meanwhile, Israel is running the US government foreign policy, AND domestic policy (Holocaust Denial has been written into law in about 2/3 of US states.)
It's a sick-fvck economy - in a large nation with a huge military that is unable to admit the most basic facts of its existence.
Almost seems appropriate to have Trump in the White House.
Hillary bashing Tulsi Gabbard makes it very obvious how Trump got there.
The Fed did accidentally verify the stereotype of the US being run by Jewish bankers.
They shut down for a holiday on Yom Kippur, Wednesday August 9.
Have you ever worked in a corporation that took Yom Kippur as a holiday ?
Why not Eid Mubarak ?
it is a fucking house of cards being manipulated by the worst kinds of people. i'm afraid that the next collapse could make 1929 look like a weekend at the beach. it's gonna be ugly...
There are plenty of jobs if you're willing to work part time for minimum wage.
'Jobs' aren't the metric we should care about. If it isn't full time and doesn't pay a living wage it shouldn't be counted.
I'mback
Comfortably numb!
Yup! It's not if, it's when!
If we do not vote coorperate murica and the media out this time around its going to be a very slippery slope. We can already see the majority of our elected representatives will not stand up to uphold the law. The will not stand up for truth. We are coming into some disturbing times if we keep paying them to take our freedom and turn it to slavery.
Bernie 2020
St. Phatty
Active member
Meanwhile ...
https://fox5sandiego.com/2019/10/19/crews-knock-down-fire-started-by-fallen-power-line/
ANOTHER California fire started by a downed power line.
Can any Calif. members tell us what's going on with your home (fire) insurance ?
I don't have time to keep track of all the fire starts in California, but these are 2 of the main reasons -
* fallen power lines
* fires escaped from homeless encampments.
https://fox5sandiego.com/2019/10/19/crews-knock-down-fire-started-by-fallen-power-line/
ANOTHER California fire started by a downed power line.
Can any Calif. members tell us what's going on with your home (fire) insurance ?
I don't have time to keep track of all the fire starts in California, but these are 2 of the main reasons -
* fallen power lines
* fires escaped from homeless encampments.
I don’t have any insurance they are to good at finding reasons to not payoff on a claim. I have lost most of my income, luckily I got myself ready for these times and paid everything off. I see some of my other friends that didn’t get ready for this time in our lives, having health problems, paying ridiculous rents, and getting food from food shares. We have our government putting tariffs raising the cost of living. Low paying jobs, people who worked in the biz and have no real work history, not enough paid in to get social security, and yes that is on them but the economy is good for the rich and tough for everyone else...
MedFaced
Active member
I’m going to go nerd on this one. Power lines, arsonists, accidents are common causes, but fires are part of CA’s natural ecosystem as well. From central on down to southern CA much of the local flora are plants that release seeds during fires and shit like that. We don’t get winters like much of the world. We do get heavy rain periods followed by extremely dry periods. So lots of plants grow, dry out, then wait/die until the rains come again. Some asshole or poorly maintained power line comes along, shit happens. If it wasn’t humans, it would be lightening or some natural event.
As for fire insurance, it varies. Some places are considered higher risk than others so they pay higher premiums. Someone that owns a home in the bigger coastal cities or way out in the desert will pay less than folks living in the canyons.
If you’re curious, read about the Santa Ana winds. Imagine being in the middle of winter end of fall. It’s been raining and wet for weeks. Then seemingly out of nowhere, incredibly hot and dry winds blasts through the canyons drying everything out. It may have been 60f with high humidity on Monday, but on Tuesday it’s 90f with high winds and RH at 10%. That is central/SoCal.
Fires are an annual event here. The news likes to make it seem like the end of the world or unique. Incompetent companies and shitty people help that narrative.
St. Phatty
Active member
I lived in Calif. about 40 years and remember the winters as normal wet etc. including San Diego - but only starting when the rains start.
I was also there for the fire in 2003. I didn't want to go to work because I lived on the coast and the air inland was thick with smoke for about a week.
In one of the articles about the 2017 Nor Cal fires, there was a specific description about a small fire near Morgan Hill that was started by a power pole loaded with cell phone equipment.
Having worked with the installation guys for telecom equipment, and from knowing the PG&E engineers from drinking & because my brother was one, I know how obsessive they are about their Poles.
They have HANDBOOKS for that.
Anyway I'm pretty sure that they began deliberately exceeding olde standard limits & procedures because that was one of the only ways they could turn a profit in the face of rising health care costs.
That is obviously a theory. One place to follow up would be to subpoena ALL the power & telecom engineers who put up ALL the lines & poles that failed.
I have the feeling that their failure rate has gone up.
Also the concept, that we hear in the news, that they have to underground their lines is false.
It's real simple to engineer power lines that can take Tree Abuse.
I'm not talking about a Sequoia falling on it, just a normal 1000 pounds of normal small tree.
coconutcurry
High
This are the 'working poor'.
'Middle class' is an old fashioned term. Today we speak of 'working poor with benefits'
Same here in Germany and EU. And when this bubble bursts, you will hear the bang round the globe. Right now everything is expensive: Stocks, Real Estate, Gold... so there is not ONE bubble but many and I fear they will all burst at the same time.
