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Will the cost of bud in California go up in 2018 when the new law goes into effect?

Crazy Chester

Crazy Chester

Well-known member
HeriMarry said:
As long as it is being taxed, there will be a black market. For instance, cigarettes an shine are still sold on the black market. An since the Marijuana Movement wants to get in bed with the government for legalization an when/if it gets legalized by the feds, that will be a new charge for the undocumented grower, Tax Evasions. Say hello to the ATFC. The war will never end for the free.I only support decriminalization.

The price WILL go up an the government will get richer off our backs. IMO.
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I agree, HeriMarry. The Feds were taking it on the chin for a while when California was the first medical state. Their black market had taken a hit because of it. Now, they can have the best of both worlds, control the legal market - and, due to increased costs causing increased prices in the legal market, bring back the black market so that the DEA can get back on its gravy train.

However, money can be made after the first five years of recreational legalization in California, when the corporate cartels will be allowed to buy up the moms and pops. So, I think the moms and pops can still make money as licensees, but it will be tighter margins than they're used to. The real money will come when it's time to sell their business to the cartels - playing one off the other to get the best price. The smart move at that point would be to sell out because the various taxes and fees will only go up moving forward in time, further cutting into profit margins.

At some point, it will no longer be economical to sell legal weed. Dispensaries will close left and right. The black market will then be firmly in control, like it was pre-1996, which is exactly what the government wants.
 
Drewsif

Drewsif

Member
Prices will soar, cheap bammer will be the option people adhere to once the hype is over. Then the ball is in the factory producers court. Quality is a thing of the past. The Black market will be the craft market. Nearly independent from any legal taxed market.

Back to the way things were. Except now they got new funding for mj tax police. The Black market is a bigger tax target than it was. And licencing will make it too expensive to sell your worst crops to dispensaries, since they wont pay more than 500/lb since they can just grown their own schwagg and sell it for whatever.
 
S

SilverHazer

Member
It's probably gonna start off with few vendors trying to sell 50-60 an eighth like the Glam dispensaries. Once the huge outdoor grows really get rolling and more shops open up, there will be people capping eights at 35-45 bucks trying to corner the market.

It depends where you're at in Cali though, without a doubt. SF and other nice neighborhhods in the bay, Santa Barbara, San Diego are expensive now and will probably stay that way. Santa Cruz, Sacramento, LA are pretty cheap now and will prob stay cheaper than ritzy areas.
 
A

AWDTERROR

Member
People are just freaking out due to 2018 changes coming. Prices will go up on the grey market tickets and if your smart you are already planning or in the build process of securing your future In the recreational markets. Too be honest I was completely against the change but recently I have embraced it. Even if indoor packs start to sell for 1000-1200 it wont be a big deal as long as you know how to produce them for 250-400$ which is not that hard
 
P

packerfan79

Active member
Veteran
I am thinking a percentage of the licensed producers will run into issues. Those issues Will put the unscrupulous/ unskilled producers on a road to failure.

I have been wondering about the seed to sale. Will you be tied to seeds exclusively. I can't see a large op not running clones. You need uniformity to produce a consistent product.

I am hoping that the recreational is outrageously priced (like Nevada).in my area their is a single small zone allowing commercial growing, they still have a medical ban. If the bans that are in place stay in place, prices are definitely going to hold steady. I only need 2.5 years to keep us afloat via weed. And I should have the cash to put down on an off grid property (outside of California)

I was told today that the grow zone is hiring people with no knowledge or experience, sounds like a recipe for failure.
 
M

meizzwang

Member
St. Phatty said:
2017 is going to a Bumper Crop year.

I would wait till December 2017 - Jan. 2018 to see how prices go, before making plans for 2018 grows.

Overall industry revenues are in the ballpark of $75 Billion.

Will industry revenues increase - will people spend more $$ on Cannabis as it becomes much more widely available ?

I don't think so.

That leaves us in a situation where Total Revenues (OG/off balance sheet, and 'official') are basically static/flat.

Yet production increases MASSIVELY.

Sounds like a recipe for significant price drops to me.
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Come 2018, millions of adults who formerly had limited access to cannabis (ie. they don't have a medical card, or don't want to drive very far to acquire some nugs) will be able to go down the block and have access like they never had before. Despite a glut in production, I wonder if a massive increase in availability will increase consumption and therefore, total industry revenues? The black market, relatively speaking, is limited in its distribution abilities compared to the legal market.
 
Crazy Chester

Crazy Chester

Well-known member
meizzwang said:
The black market, relatively speaking, is limited in its distribution abilities compared to the legal market.
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True. In a few years, I believe the black market will be tougher for a grower/seller to navigate than ever before. Legal states may beef up law enforcement and will almost certainly give the DEA free reign over anyone not complying with the state med or rec law.
 
MJPassion

MJPassion

Observer
ICMag Donor
Veteran
meizzwang said:
Come 2018, millions of adults who formerly had limited access to cannabis (ie. they don't have a medical card, or don't want to drive very far to acquire some nugs) will be able to go down the block and have access like they never had before. Despite a glut in production, I wonder if a massive increase in availability will increase consumption and therefore, total industry revenues?
Click to expand...

Using Colorado as a model...
The answer is clearly NO!
Most smokers were smoking previous to legalization. There was no significant increase in Colorados consuming population.
 
M

meizzwang

Member
MJPassion said:
Using Colorado as a model...
The answer is clearly NO!
Most smokers were smoking previous to legalization. There was no significant increase in Colorados consuming population.
Click to expand...

any links to studies in Colorado showing the numbers before the law went into affect and after?
 
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