I've been in Oregon for the last year and a half. To try and keep it short prices have cratered from last year for the recreational market. There doesn't seem to be much demand for finished flowers in the market. At one point last year people were getting $1400-1600/lb. Right now indoor lbs are going for $800-$1200. Some people are getting higher tickets, but lots of them are sitting on hundreds of pounds. There are a lot of farms trying to sell their outdoor flowers at between $300-$500 simply to not go broke. I think prices will eventually stabilize, but it may take 2-3 years for that to happen. There are still lots of farms coming online in this next year, so I expect the market will continue to be flooded. I think that in a few years we'll see which of the small farms will survive, and which of the large ones as well.
I think there will be a lot of the 200-400 light indoors that will fold. When I see a company with 300 lights and 30+ full time employees, I struggle to see how those numbers add up. As far as the vertical integration it does take lots of capital. The cost of an extraction lab, edibles kitchen, retail storefront, and production facility can be daunting.
Someone who is a partner in one of the more outwardly successful operations said that it doesn't matter if it's light dep or greenhouse (without lighting). If it's not cookies, it's basically pre-run. Which means it will only be wanted for extraction.
A lot of people made bad business decisions and committed to models that will not work. Farming is about scale. There will always be some people who want small batch flowers, but that's a very small market and the first to disappear if the economy tanks. I met someone who sold their small farm and started a pre-roll company. He found he would make more money just buying low grade flower, turning it into pre-rolls, and slapping some branding on it.
I think we'll see lots more of that in the future.
I think there will be a lot of the 200-400 light indoors that will fold. When I see a company with 300 lights and 30+ full time employees, I struggle to see how those numbers add up. As far as the vertical integration it does take lots of capital. The cost of an extraction lab, edibles kitchen, retail storefront, and production facility can be daunting.
Someone who is a partner in one of the more outwardly successful operations said that it doesn't matter if it's light dep or greenhouse (without lighting). If it's not cookies, it's basically pre-run. Which means it will only be wanted for extraction.
A lot of people made bad business decisions and committed to models that will not work. Farming is about scale. There will always be some people who want small batch flowers, but that's a very small market and the first to disappear if the economy tanks. I met someone who sold their small farm and started a pre-roll company. He found he would make more money just buying low grade flower, turning it into pre-rolls, and slapping some branding on it.
I think we'll see lots more of that in the future.