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making money in a legal market

Abja Roots

ABF(Always Be Flowering) - Founder
Veteran
I've been in Oregon for the last year and a half. To try and keep it short prices have cratered from last year for the recreational market. There doesn't seem to be much demand for finished flowers in the market. At one point last year people were getting $1400-1600/lb. Right now indoor lbs are going for $800-$1200. Some people are getting higher tickets, but lots of them are sitting on hundreds of pounds. There are a lot of farms trying to sell their outdoor flowers at between $300-$500 simply to not go broke. I think prices will eventually stabilize, but it may take 2-3 years for that to happen. There are still lots of farms coming online in this next year, so I expect the market will continue to be flooded. I think that in a few years we'll see which of the small farms will survive, and which of the large ones as well.

I think there will be a lot of the 200-400 light indoors that will fold. When I see a company with 300 lights and 30+ full time employees, I struggle to see how those numbers add up. As far as the vertical integration it does take lots of capital. The cost of an extraction lab, edibles kitchen, retail storefront, and production facility can be daunting.

Someone who is a partner in one of the more outwardly successful operations said that it doesn't matter if it's light dep or greenhouse (without lighting). If it's not cookies, it's basically pre-run. Which means it will only be wanted for extraction.

A lot of people made bad business decisions and committed to models that will not work. Farming is about scale. There will always be some people who want small batch flowers, but that's a very small market and the first to disappear if the economy tanks. I met someone who sold their small farm and started a pre-roll company. He found he would make more money just buying low grade flower, turning it into pre-rolls, and slapping some branding on it.

I think we'll see lots more of that in the future.
 

soil margin

Active member
Veteran
To try and keep it short prices have cratered from last year for the recreational market. There doesn't seem to be much demand for finished flowers in the market.

It's so ridiculous that government regulators can't see this is how black markets are created. Oregon can grow way more pot than it can use, can't export it legally. Farmers are eventually forced to break the law and ship out of state so they can feed their families and pay bills.

The attempt at segregation of cannabis markets by individual states is completely absurd and needs to be fixed quickly. The only motivation for it is greed/laziness/incompetence and it's only going to cause problems by preventing the establishment of free markets.
 

Abja Roots

ABF(Always Be Flowering) - Founder
Veteran
Maybe this is exactly what they want. To bring all these people in, crater the market which will wipe most of them out, and then allow a few companies to monopolize large parts of the market. Easier to manage a few of these large companies than thousands of small ones.

They get their money either way, so I don't think it matters much to them. I think that the traditional black market/medical grower will be wiped out by this. I'd be surprised if 1/100 of them can make the transition to owning their own operation. Most will be lucky to find employment at $15-20/hr. Those will be the kind of positions where you can be easily replaced. Not a very bright future for most of those who can't see the writing on the wall.
 

hamstring

Well-known member
Veteran
Abja Roots

Loved this bit of knowledge. I am in IL and flowers still sell but the eruption of pens is crazy. Very inexpensive.

They suck if you really enjoy the taste of weed. The flavor is so one dimensional in those things.

Isn't there a market out there for guys who smoke good pot? What about all those guys who grew up smoking good weed for the last 15years?
Are they really going to buy those very koolaid tasting pens? I know I wont.


I've been in Oregon for the last year and a half. To try and keep it short prices have cratered from last year for the recreational market. There doesn't seem to be much demand for finished flowers in the market. At one point last year people were getting $1400-1600/lb. Right now indoor lbs are going for $800-$1200. Some people are getting higher tickets, but lots of them are sitting on hundreds of pounds. There are a lot of farms trying to sell their outdoor flowers at between $300-$500 simply to not go broke. I think prices will eventually stabilize, but it may take 2-3 years for that to happen. There are still lots of farms coming online in this next year, so I expect the market will continue to be flooded. I think that in a few years we'll see which of the small farms will survive, and which of the large ones as well.

I think there will be a lot of the 200-400 light indoors that will fold. When I see a company with 300 lights and 30+ full time employees, I struggle to see how those numbers add up. As far as the vertical integration it does take lots of capital. The cost of an extraction lab, edibles kitchen, retail storefront, and production facility can be daunting.

Someone who is a partner in one of the more outwardly successful operations said that it doesn't matter if it's light dep or greenhouse (without lighting). If it's not cookies, it's basically pre-run. Which means it will only be wanted for extraction.

A lot of people made bad business decisions and committed to models that will not work. Farming is about scale. There will always be some people who want small batch flowers, but that's a very small market and the first to disappear if the economy tanks. I met someone who sold their small farm and started a pre-roll company. He found he would make more money just buying low grade flower, turning it into pre-rolls, and slapping some branding on it.

I think we'll see lots more of that in the future.
 

CaptainDankness

Well-known member
Basically we are all fucked. If money is the goal that is. Cannabis is not much different than tobacco, it might even yield more per acre of land.

Best we can do is overgrow the corporations and literally free the weed. I'm talking giving weed for free of course it won't be legal to do but since when do we care about the law?

Right now you can stack some cash in illegal states then invest in a legal business. But the days of making a profit on indoor growing is coming to an end, unless Jeff Sessions is able to crush the movement.

I'd definitely prefer federal legalization, but I thought ahead and run a legitimate business. Just like the gold rush came to an end so will the green rush. We can stop the corporations if we actually free the weed that's about it but free weed won't turn a profit.
 

soil margin

Active member
Veteran
Best we can do is overgrow the corporations and literally free the weed. I'm talking giving weed for free of course it won't be legal to do but since when do we care about the law?

I'm 100% with you on this. If corporations want to try and kill the industry for average people, we can kill the industry for corporations. I'll happily grow hundreds of pounds and give it away to strangers on the street if it comes to that.
 

budchopper

Active member
I'm 100% with you on this. If corporations want to try and kill the industry for average people, we can kill the industry for corporations. I'll happily grow hundreds of pounds and give it away to strangers on the street if it comes to that.

can I have the 1st hundred pounds?:dance013::dance013:
 
G

Gr33nSanta

there will be a market for boutique weed, only we are gonna find out that not everybody has the best weed. Only the very best will survive the flower market since the majority of the population will endup smoking nothing but concentrates within a matter of a few years. Hard to think otherwise, concentrates are healthier, and not as <<stinky>> in public...
 

Gry

Well-known member
Once heard someone say that trying to make money off something one loves is not the wisest thing to do.
 

Abja Roots

ABF(Always Be Flowering) - Founder
Veteran
Abja Roots

Loved this bit of knowledge. I am in IL and flowers still sell but the eruption of pens is crazy. Very inexpensive.

They suck if you really enjoy the taste of weed. The flavor is so one dimensional in those things.

Isn't there a market out there for guys who smoke good pot? What about all those guys who grew up smoking good weed for the last 15years?
Are they really going to buy those very koolaid tasting pens? I know I wont.


Hey hamstring. Happy to share my experiences. I've got lots of love for IC and am glad to contribute what I can so we can all grow.

So over the years we've heard the familiar sentiment of " people will always want high grade flower and if you have something unique you'll be fine....." I've said it myself on here years ago.

What I had failed to consider is that the consumer market is much more complex. My current thought on it is that there are people who want high grade flower. However these same people are the ones who are likely to have made underground connections over the years or to be growing their own. So they won't be going into the shops to pay the prices these products would require. The vast majority of people going into shops will be young people who want concentrates or cheap flowers. There will also be older people who might buy some flower, but will lean more towards to the edibles. Especially if they're getting back into it after what might be decades. They'd be blown away by how expensive high grade flower is, and have probably never seen anything like that. They remember lids of imported herb from the 60's and 70's.

I knew the pens would explode years ago. They were a game changer when I first had them. Back then most people thought they were e-cigarettes when I used them in public. The fact that these tasteless co2 cartridges keep selling is all you need to look at. The average consumer just wants the buzz, and even that is one dimensional. I was filling my own cartridges with straight bho. So the flavor was very good.

So yes there's a market for good flower, but out here I'm hearing about some of these "high end" facilities that can't sell enough of their flower to cover their over head. It's not a market that I would personally be chasing after. I love flower, but my personal preference is not a good basis for building a business.

People want cheap flower, cheap flavored distillate, and cheap pre-rolls. Noticing a trend here?

I think in a few years after it all craters, some low overhead boutique farms will survive. There will also be lots of failed 400+ light operations who could not cover their overhead. What's the point of producing high grade if you have to sell it for less. I learned that years ago in the bay. It's why the quality has generally trended downward. It's a numbers game.
 

Kankakee

Member
pens in Illinois are the rage and every underground guy is looking at importing or producing because everyone is switching.

u can smell flower from miles away and non-smokers can really smell it long after you smoke.

the cost of dui's skyrocket in legal states as bust go up hundreds of percent. live p.d. money being short, having a family make one avoid flowers now and seek out pens. plus they are adding flavors that make them taste unreal for regular smokers today. .... " wow, that taste great " is now the norm.

look out below on prices because they are crashing in midwest so large export markets will really start hurting moving forward.
 

mackdx

Member
Stasis

One of reasons you are experiencing "price concious" shoppers, is you have placed yourself in the poorest county in the State of M.

If your average scraping to get by local wants to get loaded and has $15 in his pocket, are they going to grab a handle of Allen's Coffee Brandy, or are they going to grab one bottle of Allagash Curieux?

I'm sure you realize this, though.
 

CaptainDankness

Well-known member
there will be a market for boutique weed, only we are gonna find out that not everybody has the best weed. Only the very best will survive the flower market since the majority of the population will endup smoking nothing but concentrates within a matter of a few years. Hard to think otherwise, concentrates are healthier, and not as <<stinky>> in public...

I prefer dry sieve and hand rubbed hash over any concentrates or even bubble. It just has more flavor, of course it's not as potent. I do love smoking buds too the stink is the flavor.
 

CaptainDankness

Well-known member
Stasis

One of reasons you are experiencing "price concious" shoppers, is you have placed yourself in the poorest county in the State of M.

If your average scraping to get by local wants to get loaded and has $15 in his pocket, are they going to grab a handle of Allen's Coffee Brandy, or are they going to grab one bottle of Allagash Curieux?

I'm sure you realize this, though.
Neither, over priced and dirt cheap? I'll buy a bottle of Sailor Jerry's rum if I can't afford my Wild Turkey 101 don't get much better IMVHO.
 

mackdx

Member
Neither, over priced and dirt cheap? I'll buy a bottle of Sailor Jerry's rum if I can't afford my Wild Turkey 101 don't get much better IMVHO.

Agree whole heartedly on the WT101 (one of my faves) . Still, you can grab a fifth of Allen's and still have money left for taco bell with a $10.

Some folks have different priorities in M.
 

coldcanna

Active member
Veteran
We are all on this site because 1) we grow and sell for money or 2) we are cannabis fanatics. 80% of average people who smoke just wanna get high and dont care about this cross or that pheno's terpene profile. Normal businesses make 15-20% profit margins so if a lb of flower costs 4-500 to produce you can expect that eventually they will be selling for about 6-700 as the market matures. Dont be butt hurt because the old underground model isnt efficient in the real world.
 

Abja Roots

ABF(Always Be Flowering) - Founder
Veteran
^ That's pretty much the truth. One of the advantages I see to getting in early, while margins were higher, is that you could pay off your initial startup cost quicker. At the end of the day this will become a business like most others. Some people will do well by building actual business' that will either be bought by larger competitors or continue to be run like any other small business if they can find a place that works for them.

Times are changing, and we'll have to change with them.
 

CaptainDankness

Well-known member
Some say to turn your passion into a job. Conversely,

Meanwhile many people work at McDonald's and Walmart. Lol, I don't think anyone has passion in flipping burgers or tending cash registers for minimum wage.

This is what happens when corporations and politicians take over everything people love. Many loved growing corn, cotton and tobacco those are businesses you can't really have a job in as your own boss. You can do it, but you won't be making a living unless you have about a million dollars or so to go really big then you still need to worry about Monsanto pollen getting in your fields.

Same will happen with the genetically engineered cannabis being made. Of course organics do have a market but with a crop like tobacco you have too many regulations to get off the ground. I imagine cannabis won't be treated like produce by the politicians.

Probably why so many people commit suicide, they can't make a living doing something they are passionate about.
 
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