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Illinois revised timelines and guidelines

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Was it a bad sign that 90%+ of the people who showed up at the townhall meetings seemed to be business people interested in opening a dispensary or cultivation center, and less than 10% (more like 2-3% probably) were actual patients? This is based off the speaker questions. Out of 50+ people who asked questions, like 3 were actual patients.

Are there going to be a whole bunch of fisherman and not enough fish?

IL doesn't allow 'chronic or severe pain' by itself to be a qualifying condition.
AZ allows pain by itself to be a qualifying condition, and their market is supposedly strong, 50,000 patients and a market size of 135 million gross sales this year. This is according to az marijuana . com, so take those figures well salted.
That same article noted that 70% of patients are taking it for 'chronic pain' and the majority are male.
Also, naturopathic doctors (ND's), not just medical doctors and OD's, can prescribe it in AZ. IL as well as most states dont recognize naturopathic doctors.
Sounds like AZ has an almost Cali mmj situation going on, where you don't need hard proof of a significant disease to get a recommendation and you'll find plenty of doctors to recommend it for you for 100-150 dollars.

I don't think IL will be that lenient with recommendations. I think it will be more than NJ, because IL doctors dont have to register with the state (and have their name in a publicly accessible database) before they can recommend mmj. Also, IL rules state that veterans whose primary care physician is a VA doctor can just send in their medical records proving they have a qualifying condition, they don't need a physician to recommend it (because VA doctors, being federal employees, cannabis being illegal under federal law, blah blah).
So the VA patients will have less hassle to get recommendations, but how many of them have one of the qualifying conditions and want access to medical cannabis? One thousand throughout the state? Two thousand? Five thousand? Who knows?

It's interesting, that everyone's rushing into a medical market where no one really knows how many patients there will be. The consultants will say there will be tens of thousands, but they have every incentive to make this seem like a gold mine to justify their fees.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
And all of the above is merely scratching the surface....

I would agree for the most part about the consultants comment, but would hope my clients would disagree....as I have pointed out every one of the above, with several dozen other aspects which may or may not come into play.

I think at this point the true gauge will be the current registration and numbers to follow, which we will know shortly.

I also believe that people are overlooking how many things may change, and that the point of any state is to get the initial program through....and that many changes inevitably follow, and, I think this is what many informed (and wise) applicants see and understand....

I do think though many are in for quite a few surprises...

Personally, I can't even begin to count how many I have advised against Illinois...Financially, it's certainly not one of the more attractive opportunities in the industry......not even close...
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
The state may release app numbers next week, so we'll see what kind of pent up demand there is for mmj by patients.
The initial number (the first week) may end up being 5-10% of the overall patient base that will sign up the first year, is my guess, based on the il conceal carry applications, another brand new license this year. Remembering that M-Z still have to register beginning in Nov.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
I was somewhat surprised to see the recent CC estimates (mine included :smoke: ) but think they're actually very low compared to numerous other states with population a fraction of ours, and will still see quite an increase over the next several years, and could also be a reflection of how well informed and aware the public is, which applies in this case of course.

I think the initial numbers will be more of passing interest than a specific indication, as those initials (let's include the first rounds pre-Jan 1st) will be a dedicated group more on top of everything than the general population.

As also addressed somewhere above, everyone seems to be under the impression it is merely a patient action/decision, when in reality, I think where and how the program goes will rest more on the physicians acceptance and participation. I'm sure this will be addressed in many ways, shapes and forms, hence I dont think the initial numbers will necessarily be an accurate reflection on where the counts may be 12 months, 24 months from now, etc. (In addition to any added conditions over the same time period, any one of which could create a significant increase, such as "Chronic Pain", etc......)

It will be very interesting though to see the initial numbers.
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Supposedly over 2000 applied this first week. A-L. M-Z gets to sign up starting November.
So is IL looking to have about 20k patients statewide at the end of the first year?

origin-ap.png

Friday, September 05, 2014
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. --
More than 2,000 people have applied for ID cards allowing them to use medical marijuana since the application process began this week.

That's more than expected.

Bob Morgan is project coordinator for the state's Medical Cannabis Pilot Program. He said Friday that officials anticipated a few hundred patients and caregivers would begin registering in the first few days.

Authorities began accepting applications Tuesday from patients whose last names start with letters A through L. They have until Oct. 31 to apply. Patients whose last names start with the letters M - Z can apply starting Nov. 1. They have until Dec. 1 to apply.

Morgan calls the numbers "a promising sign that the program is on track to fulfill its key purpose - alleviating the pain and suffering for thousands of Illinoisans."

Lawmakers adopted the medical marijuana law in 2013. Patients must have a written certification from a doctor and get a background check.
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Although, to be sure, that 2000 figure includes patients and caregivers, not just patients.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
And of course who knows how many more are in the mail, the rest of the alphabet to get to, and, patients as they become more informed, as well as physicians.....

Scanning through the above, it's safe to say "a few hundred" was of course a ridiculously low estimate, even if it was dead of winter in Alaska :smoke:.....

Quite an interesting figure and curious what future figures will hold (curious as well and hope they have district/regional breakdowns and numbers...)
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
A district or regional breakdown would be much appreciated and useful for people applying for dispensaries and cc's.

According to the concealed carry app numbers for IL, about 23000 applied during the first week of applications (about half of those signed up early, even before January) and as of august, there were about 83000 total applications. So by that first week, you had about 28% of the first nine months of applications filed.

Applying that math to mmj numbers, you could expect 7100 A-L patient/caregiver apps in the first 9 months of applications being accepted. Double that for M-Z (not sure if M-Z is the same size group as the A-L folks, could be smaller or bigger) and you could expect 14000 patient/caregiver apps in the first 9 months.

This is assuming the pent up demand, the early appliers, is between 1/4 and 1/3 of the total market in the first 9 months. For mmj patients, it could be more, it might be less, you could make arguments for either but we have to wait to see what happens.

Since the patients are the only ones using the medicine (in theory), what's the ratio of patients to caregivers? 2-1 or 3-1 or 5-1?
That breakdown would be appreciated as well.
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
All applications are due Monday!
Hurry up, all you slowpokes.
Remember, organize as a non profit and you might have a greater chance to be approved.
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Two more days!
Start tearing your hair out.
Remember, there is no such thing as too much groveling when it comes to winning zoning approval.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
CHICAGO — More than 350 groups have applied to be the first to legally grow or sell medical marijuana in Illinois, state officials announced Wednesday.

A preliminary count of the applications that beat the Monday afternoon deadline showed 158 applications for cultivation centers and 211 applications for dispensaries.

Bob Morgan, coordinator of the state’s medical cannabis program, said the volume of applications “will allow us to pick the most qualified applicants.”

He added the applicants weren’t deterred by the stringent qualifications. It’s still unclear how the applications are distributed around the state. That will be announced next week.

Illinois expects to grant up to 21 permits for cultivation centers and up to 60 permits for dispensaries before the end of the year. That would mean the first legal marijuana would be available to registered patients in the spring of 2015.

“Obviously there is an economic interest to get into this marketplace,” said Dan Linn, executive director of Illinois NORML, a group advocating changes in marijuana laws. Linn said the state should consider increasing the number of licenses available in the medical marijuana program and, eventually, in legalizing recreational marijuana for adults.
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
So there were about 7 apps for each cc license and 3 apps for each disp license.
I thought there would be more dispensary applications, but makes sense i guess, i doubt there was much competition for most of the 60 counties in IL for dispensaries, maybe some counties there was only 1 disp application?

I guess by the end of the year they'll award the licenses. May the most appropriate candidates win.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
I'm still quite surprise by final figures (the coming week should find the district by district breakdown of numbers), as roughly 40 were metro Chicago, as well as dispo much less restrictive financially. I thought much more than that simply for the 40 metro.

Given the requirements for cultivation, and from what was seen even from applicants in line to submit, I suspect that a large portion of cultivation applications were not thoroughly prepared, and their applications falling short. (I highly doubt over a quarter billion in escrow/bonds were secured, and know firsthand their were/are significant issues with the IL required bond)

Nevada granted nationwide (worldwide) reciprocity this week (medical),as well as Arizona preparing to present recreational, so, quite a bit happening...
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
And some additional humor for the day.....(they wanted to show everyone "they knew what they were doing", but then in the same breath state 4-6,000 units within 6 months of approval to serve the 2,000 patients to date :biglaugh:.....(yes, they certainly showed they know exactly what they're doing.....)

On a different, much less amusing note :smoke:.......I have found it fascinating to see the groups......the owner of JOB rolling papers :biglaugh:, a Budweiser distributor, and so on rush around and very little mention of the program, the patients, compassionate use and operations, etc....and can only hope that a glimpse of this occurs to reviewers :smoke:....ie: Their only goal profits.....with little concern about anyone, or anything else, willing to do whatever required to ensure such......(no shortage of nasty behavior and politics in the process)...

Yes.......exactly the people and groups to participate in the compassionate use program :biglaugh:....

(and....btw........the assumptions used by many (wholesale) being $4k per......yes......the "intelligent and sophisticated" investor(s)....






Gazing across a vacant grass lot along Blackhawk Road in Rock Island, Matt Stern, co-owner of Milan-based Stern Beverage Inc., sympathizes with a Quad-City family who left the area so they could legally treat their epileptic child with medical marijuana.
Within the next year, local families and individuals may be able to make legal purchases of medical marijuana on the property adjacent to Rock Valley Plaza at 4200 46th Ave., if Stern wins a license from the state to build and operate a dispensary.
"It's just something that's long overdue, and it's a great thing that they're finally waking up to it," Stern said Thursday, days after the state accepted final applications for licenses to operate cultivation centers and dispensaries. “I’m not getting my hopes up, but by this time next year, there should be a building right here."
Stern and other investors vying to grow and sell marijuana in Rock Island County now stand one step closer to operating a piece of the state’s newest regulated market that aims to treat debilitating medical conditions.
The process
On Wednesday, the Illinois Department of Public Health announced the state received more than 350 applications from interested growers and sellers throughout Illinois.
Before the end of the year, the state anticipates granting licenses for 22 cultivation centers and 60 dispensaries, and each State Police district will get one cultivation center. Rock Island County falls in Illinois State Police District 7, which also includes Henry, Mercer and Knox counties.
Specifically, the Illinois Department of Agriculture received 158 applications from companies hoping to open a cultivation center, and the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation received 211 dispensary applications.
Growers had to include $25,000 in their application. If accepted, they must pay a $200,000 licensing fee and an annual renewal fee is set at $100,000. Contenders also must prove they have access to $2 million to ensure their financial stability. Interested sellers had to pay a $5,000 application fee.
Hopeful growers and sellers submitted their applications between Sept. 8 and Sept. 22, but “dozens” waited until the last day, officials said.
The state anticipates awarding licenses before the end of the year, and once a license is granted, the state requires growing facilities to be up and running within six months. Registered patients will have access to medical cannabis in spring 2015.
Chicago-based investors
This summer, Chicago-based Green Thumb Industries, or GTI, approached the city of Rock Island about buying a 10-acre city-owned parcel of land at 8153 51st St. W., in hopes of operating one of the state’s cultivation centers.
At the end of July, Rock Island aldermen approved the sale agreement for $135,000, and GTI said it plans to invest $10 million in the industrial park site off Andalusia Road in southwest Rock Island.
Ben Kovler, founding principal for GTI, said creation of a 44,000-square-foot cultivation center would quickly generate between 30 and 35 jobs and potentially could employ 100 people in a 100,000-square-foot facility. GTI plans to hire locally and pay staff between $13 and $20 per hour.
After state officials approved guidelines for the four-year Medical Cannabis Pilot Program, GTI and other investors began to build teams of experts to position themselves as possible growers and distributors.
The company has aligned itself with The Clinic Colorado, a Denver-based medical and recreational marijuana dispensary.
Chicago architect Doug Farr, who designed the Chicago Center for Green Technology, has plans to build an energy-efficient, LEED-certified grow house for GTI, complete with solar panels, LED lights and skylights.
“One of the things I’ve found over the years is if you’re only doing one thing, you’re not innovating,” Farr said. “Cannabis cultivation centers are currently large energy users, and we’re excited to transform the industry by chipping away at bringing energy use and energy costs down.”
GTI also hired former director of Illinois State Police Terry Gainer, who retired in May as one of the Senate's longest-serving sergeants at arms, as a security consultant.
“It’s hard not to put words like competition into this,” said Kovler, who plans to produce between 4,000 and 6,000 pounds of marijuana within the first six months of obtaining a license. “We wanted to assure the state and everybody else that we know what we're doing.”
GTI has also leased a 100,000-square-foot building in Normal near the Mitsubishi Motors North America for a potential medical marijuana cultivation center.
Earlier this month, Colona City Council members approved a pre-annexation agreement with Chicago-based Illinois Grown Medicine, or IGM, for properties at 20658 and 20606 E. 550th St. for a proposed cultivation center.
The $30 million, 96,000-square-foot facility could employ 30 part-time employees and 30 full-time employees, Desiree Tate, IGM spokeswoman, said.
IGM representatives said the facility, which would be about a mile south of Lavender Crest Winery on U.S. 6, could become “the greatest state-of-the-art facility in the Quad-City area.”
“We’re committed to the medicine,” Tate said. “Many of us have lost people to cancer and illnesses that we believe could have been helped by the legalization of medical marijuana.”
The 10-year contract, with two optional 10-year extensions, states the firm will pay the city 1.5 percent of its annual gross sales as a “municipal fee,” and an additional 1 percent as a city “infrastructure fee.”
The company estimates $25 million in annual revenue, so the two fees combined could bring Colona more than $400,000 per year.
Although IGM does not expect to earn $25 million in the first year, it hopes to level off to that amount before the four-year pilot program ends, said Tate, who added IGM will direct a minimum of $45,000 to local charities, community events and outreach programs.
IGM also would pay for water and sewer lines to the proposed site, estimated to cost $150,000 to $180,000.
Colona Mayor Rick Lack said he was impressed by IGM’s business plan and thinks it has a good shot at obtaining a license.
“Besides the financial incentives, this is a new field and something entirely new to the state of Illinois,” Lack said. “To me, it’s just the same as having a pharmaceutical firm sitting out there."
Local interest
Earlier this month, Rock Island aldermen approved an agreement to sell a 14-acre site at the northeast corner of Andalusia Road and Illinois 92 for $189,000 to A. Hana Growers Inc., led by Stern.
The beer distributor plans to invest $5 million in the 60,000-square-foot facility that will employ 40 people immediately.
“It all depends on the demand of people getting prescriptions, but I can see it ramping up quickly to 80 jobs and even higher,” said Stern, who also hopes to operate a Rock Island dispensary under the name, Nature’s Treatment of Illinois Inc.
Stern purchased the vacant property off Blackhawk Road for $150,000 and plans to build a $1 million, 3,500-square-foot dispensary. He predicts the dispensary could create 15 jobs from the get-go.
Currently, Stern operates Stern Beverage, a Milan-based Anheuser-Busch wholesaler that distributes 1.8 million cases of beer in northwest Illinois every year.
He thinks his first-hand business experience in the “stringent state-regulated” beer distributing business will help him successfully operate a cultivation center or dispensary.
“They’re not really related, but surprisingly, there are natural things about both businesses that are similar,” said Stern, noting security measures, transportation and inventory reporting to the state.
Stern said he hopes the state will consider local business owners before awarding licenses.
“They want diversity in ownerships,” said Stern, who also applied for licenses to operate a dispensary and a cultivation center in Rock Falls.
“If the idea was to have big outside guys from Chicago and Colorado to control the whole state, then it kind of defeats the purpose. We’re local, and hopefully, they look at that.”
Rock Island city leaders said they didn’t expect to receive inquires about medical marijuana facilities five years ago, but they’re excited for the potential economic impact in the community.
“It’s cool to be part of, but it wasn’t even on my horizon,” said Jeff Eder, community and economic development director for Rock Island. “We are just reacting to what the state has done. It’s providing a service, it’s providing a need, and it means more jobs.”
Rock Island Mayor Dennis Pauley said the city has not received any pushback from residents.
“We’ve been very public in supporting the process,” Pauley said. “It’s just a change in society, and hopefully, we’ll get one of the two.”
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Well, if you get a dispensary on the Vegas strip, and they will honor any mmj cardholder from any other state, that would be big. All those california visitors, but IL too.

Doesnt the bond need to be secured once the application is approved, not when just when submitted?

Where did it say JOB papers applied for a license?

a lot of big dollar commitments being made. millions. multi millions. millionaires looking to make more millions, so maybe they can swim in a big pool of money like scrooge mcduck.
some applicants submitted 5 file boxes of documents for every application, some just a single file folder.
i do hope some of the less sophisticated investors get a license, that it's not just very professional big money interests getting all the licenses. so long as the little guy is able to comply with the regulations, it would be nice if they get an opportunity to be involved.
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Well, if you get a dispensary on the Vegas strip, and they will honor any mmj cardholder from any other state, that would be big. All those california visitors, but IL too.
Correct, reciprocity to any and every medical patient in the country. (They stated "in the world"..)
Doesnt the bond need to be secured once the application is approved, not when just when submitted?
Yes and no. The specific requirements were to "provide evidence" of either escrow or bond in the application. (Schedule 6 I believe, financials).

This would be a problem as I only know of 1 source on the planet touching the IL MMJ bonds, ($3.5MM aggregate, not $2MM ) and they said they were only serving 8 applicants. (including mine/ours).

This is of course on top of license and registration, prep, build, security, operating costs, facility cost, etc...

No one touching the IL. bond.
Where did it say JOB papers applied for a license?
Owner/distributor of...
(one of his holdings I believe....)
a lot of big dollar commitments being made. millions. multi millions. millionaires looking to make more millions, so maybe they can swim in a big pool of money like scrooge mcduck.
some applicants submitted 5 file boxes of documents for every application, some just a single file folder.
The volume was in the financials.....not the operation per se.....(so, if there was a group of, let's say 10 investors....complete 3 year financials and accompanying docs, etc....)
i do hope some of the less sophisticated investors get a license, that it's not just very professional big money interests getting all the licenses. so long as the little guy is able to comply with the regulations, it would be nice if they get an opportunity to be involved.
Frankly:
1. The "sophisticated" investors are far from.......I have seen quotes as the above (Pulling 6k lbs 6 months following approval (Guess they forget their build out and set up of 3,000 lights :smoke:....Oh, thats right, that specific group is going LED's :biglaugh:....).....Ohhhhh...and they forgot another thing....for 2,000 patients :biglaugh:.....

I saw something today addressing a Wicker Park proposed dispo stating it would be near $500 a z..........

Another stating a $25MM annual gross (again, with 2,000 patients thus far and proposed wholesale of $4k a unit.......)

Yes.....compassionate operators........500 a z.......25MM annual.......

The "sophisticated investors" are the scariest and most clueless bunch I have ever seen.......it's quite scary actually......(and, of course, as such, they're convinced their gods "in on the ground floor" of the industry)......oh.....yeah, that's right.....industry 2 decades old.....half the nation......

If you ask me, it should be the reverse......ie: If your over 10MM, your not getting in...

We shall see.......the bigger they are, the funnier they are.....

I guess they all missed the part of shorter list of conditions.....start up of program and patient participation levels yet to be determined, and so on......truly the most ridiculous bunch I have ever seen.......truly....
 

Bababooey

Horse-toothed Jackass
Veteran
Yes and no. The specific requirements were to "provide evidence" of either escrow or bond in the application. (Schedule 6 I believe, financials).

This would be a problem as I only know of 1 source on the planet touching the IL MMJ bonds, ($3.5MM aggregate, not $2MM ) and they said they were only serving 8 applicants. (including mine/ours).

So maybe other applicants are showing 2 million in escrow? or maybe you were mistaken and there is 1 or more other companies writing surety bonds? who told you that they're the only company doing it, the surety company themselves? well then, maybe it was puffery: oh YEAH, we're the ONLY ones doing this, so you better accept our rates, because really, you have NO OTHER CHOICE. Literally. It's either pay our exorbitant rates or put up 2 mill in an account.

i didnt think medical prices were going to be much less than black market prices for good homegrown flowers; 60 an eighth seems to be the going rate for the quality stuff nowadays, if youre buying it an eighth at a time. heck even in cali dispensaries top shelf was that much, at least a few years ago before the green rush.
if youre buying an oz at a time there should be a discount, and also it would be nice if insurance would cover it. fat chance of that though. but at least it's still cheaper than marinol, which is also sometimes not covered by insurance.

2K initial applicants for A-L, but some patients dont want to register, as IL is the only state that requires a fingerprinting and background check for mmj. Even judy falco, the ms patient who was one of the prime advocates of this bill, seriously considered not getting licensed because the prints and background check did not seem compassionate.
im thinking 10k patients, maybe, at the end of the first year. and still less than 20k at the end of 3 years.
so yeah, some of these applicants may be overestimating demand. if they really plan on growing such large amounts, they better have a long term storage plan in place if they can only sell a portion of each harvest.

im not sure IL would ever allow serious pain by itself to be a qualifying condition; if anything, it would have to be attached to an actual specific condition or disease. but the more conditions they qualify will expand the patient base, but i think its unlikely it would expand the patient base dramatically.

CO, after 7 months of recreational sales, allowed recreational mj licenses to be available to every state resident who successfully applies; previously, such licenses were limited to those already holding a medical mj license.

so yeah, there is value in being an early adopter if the state ever legalizes recreational, but that amounted to a 7 month head start in CO. Is that an insurmountable head start? probably not, in most cases.

It is exciting to watch the developments unfold, and see what the market is actually like next year. I could be totally wrong, or mostly right, or anywhere in between. Only time will tell.
 
sadly all this dragging of feet by the state has caused many people lots of pain. I know of at least 3 friends and family members who are battling cancer as we speak and refuse to use "illegal canabis" although it would be provided to them for free. im trying hard to convence them otherwise. and I know this is the totally wrong thread for this question but im going to ask anyway.

what is the best way to to prepare cannabis for oral consumtion? is the rick simpson iso oil taste good? or would simple edibles be better? I was thinking of making the iso oil and putting it in gel caps with small dogages working up to full doses, to help a certain person build a tolerance. they are in their 50s and have never used cannabis at all.

this will be a cancer treatment not just for pain. so rick simpson recommends 2 one gram doses a day over the course of 2 to 3 months. and I think a smaller maintinece dose for at least 2 years would be a good idea
 

Julian

Canna Consultant
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Bababooey said:
So maybe other applicants are showing 2 million in escrow? or maybe you were mistaken and there is 1 or more other companies writing surety bonds? who told you that they're the only company doing it, the surety company themselves? well then, maybe it was puffery: oh YEAH, we're the ONLY ones doing this, so you better accept our rates, because really, you have NO OTHER CHOICE. Literally. It's either pay our exorbitant rates or put up 2 mill in an account.
I highly doubt 150 of the 158 applicants included in their application "provided evidence" of $2MM escrow to state. (remember, this is on top of every other cost and expense)

We went through probably 2 dozen companies over a couple months, and as of Friday close of business September 19th, there were none granting such aside from 1.
i didnt think medical prices were going to be much less than black market prices for good homegrown flowers; 60 an eighth seems to be the going rate for the quality stuff nowadays, if youre buying it an eighth at a time. heck even in cali dispensaries top shelf was that much, at least a few years ago before the green rush.
if youre buying an oz at a time there should be a discount, and also it would be nice if insurance would cover it. fat chance of that though. but at least it's still cheaper than marinol, which is also sometimes not covered by insurance.
On has to remember, Chicago metro, $250 z street is the norm for basically anything that exists. (Granted, some may very well lack the resources and be bound to up to $350.....but, 250-275 is the norm... (full term, flushed, hand manicured, and a suitable cure)..I know probably a dozen sources for the former, and maybe 3 for the latter....
2K initial applicants for A-L, but some patients dont want to register, as IL is the only state that requires a fingerprinting and background check for mmj. Even judy falco, the ms patient who was one of the prime advocates of this bill, seriously considered not getting licensed because the prints and background check did not seem compassionate.
im thinking 10k patients, maybe, at the end of the first year. and still less than 20k at the end of 3 years.
so yeah, some of these applicants may be overestimating demand. if they really plan on growing such large amounts, they better have a long term storage plan in place if they can only sell a portion of each harvest.
I'm fairly certain (from a large amount of interaction) that most aware of the most suitable long term packaging, so, yet another issue.....

I wouldn't say they are overestimating demand.....

I'd say they are completely ignoring any ad all factors related to it....:smoke:....ie: New program, very little data yet aside from the 2k initial.....patient participation levels, you stated merely speculation, so, to be aiming for 6k units 6 months after approval with absolutely no idea whatsoever how and where the program is going is to put it gently extremely foolish :smoke:..
im not sure IL would ever allow serious pain by itself to be a qualifying condition; if anything, it would have to be attached to an actual specific condition or disease. but the more conditions they qualify will expand the patient base, but i think its unlikely it would expand the patient base dramatically.

CO, after 7 months of recreational sales, allowed recreational mj licenses to be available to every state resident who successfully applies; previously, such licenses were limited to those already holding a medical mj license.

so yeah, there is value in being an early adopter if the state ever legalizes recreational, but that amounted to a 7 month head start in CO. Is that an insurmountable head start? probably not, in most cases.

It is exciting to watch the developments unfold, and see what the market is actually like next year. I could be totally wrong, or mostly right, or anywhere in between. Only time will tell.
 
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