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This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

oldchuck

Active member
Veteran
It has been relatively warm and dry on the east coast US too for the same reason. Watch the jet stream from day to day and you will know why.
 
R

Robrites

2015 is warmest year on record, NOAA and NASA say

2015 is warmest year on record, NOAA and NASA say

(CNN)Last year was the Earth's warmest since record-keeping began in 1880, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA said Wednesday.

It's been clear for quite some time that 2015 would steal the distinction of the hottest year from 2014, with 10 out of the 12 months last year being the warmest respective months on record -- and those records go back 136 years.

While it wasn't necessarily a surprise that 2015 finished in first place, its margin of victory was startling -- it lapped the field, with the average temperature across the entire planet 1.62˚F (0.90˚C) above the 20th century average, more than 20% higher than the previous highest departure from average.

This was aided by a December that looked and felt more like a March or April for much of the Northern Hemisphere, where traditional winter holidays had weather that was neither traditional nor winter-like.

In fact, December became the first month to ever reach 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the globe. In the United States, December was both the warmest and the wettest on record -- no other month has ever held both distinctions for the country.

It is somewhat ironic that this news comes out of Washington on a day the city prepares for what could be one of the biggest snowstorms in its history -- but big snows can occur even in the warmest years. Remember Boston last year? Despite the snowiest winter on record for Boston, the state of Massachusetts still ended the year with temperatures far above average.

Why was 2015 so warm? The biggest culprit was a major El Niño, which has joined 1997-1998 as the strongest El Niño ever observed. El Niños, which are characterized by significant warming over topical ocean waters in the Pacific, not only warm the ocean but also pump lots of excess heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures.

El Niño years tend to be warmer than non-El Niño years (neutral or La Niña years). El Niño was a major driver of the heat this year, but certainly not the only factor. The change also was "largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere," a NASA press release said. This is evident in that recent neutral or even La Niña years have been hotter than previous strong El Niños.

Much like sports writers who start their preseason predictions immediately following the final buzzer of the previous season's championship, many climate scientists and weather forecasters are already saying 2016 could push the chart-topping temperature climb even higher, with El Niño lingering into spring and the continued influence from man-made climate change.
 
R

Robrites

El Nino isn't helping California's water woes

El Nino isn't helping California's water woes

The recent onslaught of El Nino storms only slightly increased the levels of California reservoirs that now stand at half of historic depths for this time of year, federal officials said Friday while releasing an initial water outlook for 2016.

The federally operated reservoirs that supply farms and cities throughout the agriculture-rich Central Valley are now 49 percent full, compared with 47 percent on Oct. 1, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said.

Much of the heavy rainfall in recent weeks has soaked into the landscape left parched by four years of drought, and the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada has grown but hasn't started to melt off and replenish the critically low reservoirs, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation spokesman Shane Hunt said.

"It's been raining and snowing," he said. "It's going to take a lot more."
The bureau's outlook came as federal water managers prepare to announce how much water will be available for Central Valley farmers this summer.

Johnny Amaral, deputy general manager at Westlands Water District, said federal officials have told his district not to expect any surface water this year. Westlands distributes federal water to hundreds of farms in the San Joaquin Valley — the nation's most productive agricultural region.

"What they've told us is to plan for zero," said Amaral, who blames environmental regulations that protect endangered fish for allowing water to flow out to sea rather than being captured in reservoirs.

"That's not a good situation," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/22/el-nino-isnt-helping-californias-water-woes.html
 
Z

z-ro

Oroville may not be full but my spring is pumping like I've never seen it before. And I don't think the rain is gonna stop any time soon. Hope everyone has their indoors fired up cause March dep ain't happening this year.
 
R

Robrites

Is El Niño wimping out in Southern California? Not quite

Is El Niño wimping out in Southern California? Not quite

Los Angeles is facing sunshine and warmth this week even as El Niño remains strong 1,000 to 2,000 miles south of California. It’s the third week without big storms this month. But El Niño is not wimping out. Here's what’s going on:

Why hasn’t El Niño brought us rain already in Los Angeles?

Put simply, it’s too early for El Niño-influenced rains to arrive in Southern California.

During the last two strong El Niños on record, the heaviest rains came during February 1998 and March 1983, said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

Los Angeles has actually done well for rainfall in January. As of Monday, downtown recorded 109% of average rainfall this month, largely due to big El Niño-influenced storms the first week of January.

So why is L.A. so pleasant and sunny this week while even Northern California has been getting hit by rain and snow?

There are masses of high pressure sitting on top of Southern California and over Nevada right now.

“High pressure literally means there’s more air in the atmosphere above you. And it pushes down on the air. And when it does that, it compresses it, and it literally heats up through compression,” Patzert said.

“That’s why in a high pressure system, you get heat waves.”

That mass of high pressure “needs to flatten out and go away” for storms to return to Southern California, National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Bruno said.

What about the conveyor belt of storms we were promised?

That pattern did emerge in the first week of January, but hasn’t returned since then.

Why are some experts confident that the El Niño-style rains will come to Southern California?

The two biggest El Niños on record, which developed over 1982-83 and 1997-98, brought double the rain and double the snowpack for California, Patzert said. This El Niño is in the same league as those two.

El Niño is the warming of surface ocean temperatures about 1,000 to 2,000 miles south of California that fuels atmospheric disturbances worldwide. It’s 2.5 times the size of the continental United States.

What makes this El Niño very impressive is that it’s still so huge compared with the El Niño of January 1998, which was already contracting by then, Patzert said.

Periods of sunny and warm weather are typical even in strong El Niño winters, Bruno said. “No need to be alarmed that El Niño is a bust.”

Latimes.com
 
R

Robrites

Why El Niño Is Driving Up the Cost of Produce

Why El Niño Is Driving Up the Cost of Produce

The arrival of an "El Niño year" always brings a great deal of speculation and concern for people across a variety of industries. The weather phenomenon, induced by increased temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, can have extreme effects. In some parts of the world, like Indonesia and Australia, El Niño brings drought, fires, and water shortages. In North America, though, the effects generally tend to be much more mild.

Generally, the expectation is that El Niño causes Florida, Texas, California, and much of Mexico to experience significantly wetter winters. Many years, the impacts of El Niño barely move the needle, and are frequently welcome as climate change makes drought more commonplace. This year, though, farmers across North America have been impacted by El Niño's heavy rains and unusual temperature patterns.

"The impacts of El Niño are being felt differently across the continent’s most productive regions, but many farms are decidedly feeling the pinch."

The weather is directly translating into higher produce prices at the grocery store and restaurants. In November, the price of uber-trendy restaurant staple cauliflower, grown in California, more than tripled from around $20 per case wholesale to $60. Green onions (or scallions) from Mexico and California saw a similar increase, soaring from $13 or $14 per pound to upwards of $40. The prices of tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, celery, and asparagus from rain-soaked Florida have also continued to rise, and it's all (or at least mostly) El Niño's fault.

The impacts of El Niño are being felt differently across the country's most productive regions, but many farms are decidedly feeling the pinch.

In California's Salinas Valley, one of the country's major growing regions for everything from cauliflower to wine grapes, the cooler evening temperatures that El Niño brings are also severely stunting the growth of lettuce crops. "These regions have been affected by El Niño tremendously. Instead of the stable weather patterns usually seen in this region, the temperatures fluctuated between very cold and very hot," says Stephanie Blanton of Produce Alliance, a national collective of produce buyers. "Produce doesn't do well in those conditions. It needs consistent temperature."

As a result, your salad is probably about to get a little more expensive. At present, Blanton says that iceberg lettuce is in "act of God" status on the market, which means that demand exceeds supply due to external factors like bad weather. The cooler temperatures have also degraded the quality of romaine and iceberg lettuce, which means that you'll likely start seeing bruised and blistered greens in your salad bowl in the coming weeks. Adding insult to injury, cold weather slows the growth of lettuces, which means that it will take even longer for quality product to hit the market.

eater.com
 
R

Robrites

High-pressure mass above Southern California keeps brunt of El Niño away

High-pressure mass above Southern California keeps brunt of El Niño away

El Niño-fueled storms have left apartments teetering on a cliff's edge near San Francisco, and snow has piled up in the Sierra Nevada mountains, with the water content 111% of normal.

Yet Southern California has been in a dry spell for the last three weeks, which is expected to be briefly interrupted this weekend with the arrival of a blustery storm.

But that storm should move out by Monday, replaced once again by dry, mild weather.

The biggest reason for the contrast between the wet north and the dry south is masses of high pressure sitting southwest of California, and on top of Southern California and Nevada. This type of system repels storms.
We'll see quite a few storms come through between now and the end of March and even April. - Curt Kaplan, National Weather Service

"High pressure literally means there's more air in the atmosphere above you. And it pushes down on the air. And when it does that, it compresses it, and it literally heats up through compression," said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

That mass of high pressure "needs to flatten out and go away" for storms to return to Southern California, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Bruno.

But that doesn't mean hopes for an El Niño-style Southern California winter have been dashed.

Experts say it might be simply too early for El Niño-influenced rains to arrive in Southern California.

During the last two strong El Niños on record, the heaviest rains came during February 1998 and March 1983, Patzert said.

Los Angeles has actually done well — by drought standards — for rainfall since July 1. As of Friday afternoon, downtown had recorded 91% of average, seeing 6.54 inches compared with the average of 7.2 inches. The biggest storms came the first week of January, which brought 2.71 inches of rain in three days, and Sept. 15, which brought 2.39 inches.

It's actually not that far off, percentage-wise, from San Francisco. San Francisco is 101% of average since July 1. L.A. has only seen three days in January where rainfall exceeded one-hundredth of an inch; San Francisco has seen 14.

The two biggest El Niños on record, which developed over 1982-83 and 1997-98, brought double the rain and snowpack for California, Patzert said. This El Niño is in the same league as those two.
 
R

Robrites

Snowpack makes scientists optimistic about Oregon’s water supply

Snowpack makes scientists optimistic about Oregon’s water supply

SALEM — Oregon’s snowpack remained abundant in January and scientists are beginning to make optimistic predictions about the state’s water supply.

The Statesman Journal reported that the snowpack is at or above normal throughout the state and western Oregon is no longer in a drought.

By this time last year, much of the state’s precipitation had turned to rain and ski areas were closed or struggling.

Oregon State University Climate Change Institute associate director Kathie Dello says she was expecting warmer-than-average temperatures because of the weather pattern known as El Nino. Dello says the cold, snowy storms have been a pleasant surprise.

February and March are expected to see above-average temperatures, but Dello says that should be OK.

She says there’s not much doubt that this summer’s water supply will be better than last year’s.

registerguard.com
 
R

Robrites

El Niño rainstorms improving wildfire conditions throughout California, fire agency s

El Niño rainstorms improving wildfire conditions throughout California, fire agency s

Higher-than-normal rainfall associated with El Niño has diminished the risk of wildfires in California for the next four months, according to a national fire agency report.

However, those same rains ultimately could trigger an uptick in grass fires at lower elevations because of a heavy grass crop expected in late spring, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. The NICC helps oversee wildfire response efforts.

Heavy rainfall and increasing snow accumulations brought on by widespread storms in January have resulted in above-normal precipitation for Northern and Central California, allowing vegetation to grow and “green-up,” the report said.

Southern California hasn’t been so lucky however, and precipitation there has reached only near-normal levels.

Although models predict that El Niño will dump more rain in the lower part of the state, the report notes that some people are growing skeptical.

“While the two storms of early January were enough to bring the monthly precipitation totals to within close proximity of normal for southern Orange County and San Diego county, an extended stretch of dry weather in late January has led to some in the general public to question whether the current El Niño would end up bringing significant rainfall to Southern California,” the report said.

latimes.com
 
R

Robrites

Has El Niño abandoned L.A.?

Has El Niño abandoned L.A.?

By this point in winter, Southern California was supposed to be dealing with rains and flooding, not brush fires and beach weather.

Yet temperatures have soared this week, breaking records in downtown Los Angeles and other locations across California, with even hotter conditions expected Tuesday. Forecasters warn of more hot winds as well as temperatures that could exceed 90 degrees downtown.

For all the talk of monster rains from El Niño, all but three days in the last month have been dry in the Los Angeles area.

Has El Niño abandoned L.A.?

It's too early to be certain. But some scientists say El Niño is operating differently than they expected — at least for Southern California.

In the fall, the consensus was that El Niño would give Southern California the best chance for above-average rains and much less of a chance in Northern California. But the opposite has turned out to be true.

Southern California is still well below average rainfall, with downtown L.A. reporting 52% of normal since Oct. 1. But deluge after deluge to the north has built back the snowpack — it's 105% of normal in the Sierra Nevada — and begun to refill drought-depleted reservoirs.

Read the Rest http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-winter-heat-20160209-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1la1
 

DuskrayTroubador

Well-known member
Veteran
I would say that we should just forget about LA. Salt the earth there and forget the place.

But then all those douchebags would flood to the far corners of the continent.
 
R

Robrites

An incredible 45 day storm turned California into a 300-mile-long sea

An incredible 45 day storm turned California into a 300-mile-long sea

picture.php

A massive 19th century storm in the pacific United States opened up a 300-mile-long sea that stretched through much of the central part of California.

And it looks like the state is due for another megaflood.

For 43 days, from late 1861 to early 1862, it rained almost nonstop in central California. Rivers running down the Sierra Nevada mountains turned into torrents that swept entire towns away.

The storm was caused by an atmospheric river, a large concentration of water vapor that can cause devastating storms.

"[These storms] have the potential of hurricanes — or even more so because they go on for weeks," Lucy Jones of the US Geological Survey told NPR.

Atmospheric rivers carry concentrated channels of water vapor out of the tropics.

A famous example is the Pineapple Express, which, propelled by the jet stream, carries vapor from the waters near Hawaii all the way to the American Pacific coast, where it causes heavy storms.

A strong atmospheric river is capable of carrying more than 10 times the average amount of water that passes through the mouth of Mississippi River.
http://www.businessinsider.com/incredible-45-day-storm-california-300-mile-sea-could-happen-again-2016-2
 
R

Robrites

picture.php


The calendar may have turned to 2016, but temperatures are picking up where 2015 left off. January was record warm, according to data released this week by NASA.

You may recall that last year was the hottest on record for the globe. And by NASA’s accounting, it ended with a bang. This past December was the warmest December on record and the most abnormally warm month on record, too.

That is until now.

This January was the warmest January on record by a large margin while also claiming the title of most anomalously warm month in 135 years of record keeping. The month was 1.13°C — or just a smidge more than 2°F — above normal. That tops December’s record of being 1.11°C — or just a smidge below 2°F — above average.

It marks the fourth month in a row where the globe has been more than 1°C (1.8°F) above normal. Incidentally, those are the only four months where the globe has topped that mark since record keeping began.

Large swaths of the globe were painted red by warmth to the point where it’s easier to talk about where the heat wasn’t (that would be Antarctica, Scandinavia, East Africa and a few parts of Russia for the record). The telltale signal of El Niño’s heat in the Pacific continues to be notable, but it’s the Arctic that truly stands out as the most abnormally warm place on the planet.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/january-global-temperature-record-20035
 
R

Robrites

In Northern California, skiers and water officials are grateful for the recovering sn

In Northern California, skiers and water officials are grateful for the recovering sn

Here at one of the snowiest places in the country, Ed Bischoff marveled at a view that had been absent for years.

A number of early winter storms, strengthened by El Niño conditions, had covered the northern Sierra Nevada in white. Fresh snow weighed down towering evergreens along Interstate 80. On local roads, street signs peeked out of snowbanks more than 7 feet high.

Bischoff remembered the drive to Sugar Bowl ski resort last year, when the landscape was mostly dirt. The only snow was man-made — narrow strips of powder on the slopes that had managed to stay open.

"There was no snow on the road, no snow anywhere until you got here," he said, gazing up at the mountains he had frequented for years. "It was all brown everywhere."

Across Northern California, skiers and water officials are heartened by the recovering snowpack, which last year had amounted to 5% of its normal water content — the lowest in 500 years, based on studies of tree rings.
It's so good to see all the snow piled up around here. We're way ahead of last year, and it's only going to get better. - Janet Tuttle, Donner Ski Ranch

"Five percent," David Rizzardo, chief of snow surveys and water supply forecasting for the Department of Water Resources, recalled with awe. "There's only five other numbers that could be lower than that. It knocked the record out of the books."

The record low had prompted statewide drought emergency measures and forced ski resorts to shut down early.

Now, with the state's snowpack averaging 94% of normal for this time of year, officials are cautiously optimistic this winter could offer a measure of drought relief. In January alone, Sacramento had 17 days of rain. Squaw Valley, site of the 1960 Winter Olympics, has seen more than 26 feet of snow this winter — 40% more than the total for all last season, from November to May. Going into March, there's a good chance most of California will see above-average precipitation, climate experts said.
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-snowpack-drought-tahoe-20160219-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1gp2
 
R

Robrites

It's not your imagination: Portland sets winter rainfall record

It's not your imagination: Portland sets winter rainfall record

Portland International Airport set a rainfall record for December through February (the meteorological winter) at 25.27 inches, the National Weather Service reports.

Normal rainfall for the airport during the same period is 14.14 inches. Records have been kept at the airport since 1940.

That's a lot of rain. And February's not over yet, so the number will climb.

Other near-record-setting areas (where records have been kept since the 1890s) include:

Vancouver with its second wettest winter (25.77 inches)

Downtown Portland's third wettest winter (31.06 inches)

and Hillsboro with its fourth wettest winter (24.74 inches).

The ranking is for the period of Dec. 1 1 through Feb. 28-29.

And the Portland area's rainy season is far from over. Keep those rain boots and umbrellas handy.
 
R

Robrites

L.A. recorded its hottest February on record

L.A. recorded its hottest February on record

It was supposed to be one of the wettest Februaries on record. Instead, by one measure at least, it became the hottest on record.

With an average high temperature of 77.5, February was almost two degrees hotter than the previous record set in 1954, according to a Times analysis.

Monday’s reported high of 74 capped a 10-day spell of temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Those mild but unusually warm days combined with the two record heat spells earlier in the month to lift February 2016 into the lead, according to a Times analysis of weather data going back to 1878. The National Weather Service was withholding its official announcement until midnight Monday to include another measure using a combination of high and low readings.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-la-recorded-its-hottest-february-on-record-20160229-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1la1
 
Has anyone heard about the massive amount of CO that was released off the coast of cali that stopped on 2/26? Apparently the same exact thing happened before the 2001 quake in Gujarat, India 7 days prior. I wonder if we're in for "the big one"? It's been a while since I felt a quake. ..

...the last time I felt one I had drunk ayahuasca in my third story apt and was laying there when all of a sudden I heard something deep in the earth rising up...it was amazing...the whole apt complex rocked back and forth for about a minute like it was rocking me in a cradle.

San Francisco. .. ?
 
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