This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

Record rainfall: Wettest December, wettest month ever in Portland in 75 years

Record rainfall: Wettest December, wettest month ever in Portland in 75 years

From the Oregonian newspaper..

More than a third of an inch of rain overnight pushed December's rainfall total in Portland to 13.52 inches, officially breaking the previous wettest December record of 13.35 inches set in December 1996.

It's also the all-time wettest month ever recorded at the airport, officials said.

The National Weather Service in Portland said the record was broken at 6:53 a.m. Monday.

The December 1996 pushed the total for that year to a record 63.20 inches, the wettest year at Portland International Airport since record-keeping began there in October 1940.

The record for December rainfall in downtown Portland is 20.14 inches set in 1882. The year-end total for 1882 was a whopping 71.82 inches, nearly 6 feet of rain in a calendar year.

Despite a dry start, Portland's yearly rainfall through Dec. 20 stood at 38.20 inches, 3.99 inches above the average of 34.21 inches. Last year at this time Portland had picked up 38.65 inches for the year.

Rain has fallen every day in December, with a record 2.67 inches on Dec. 7 - the highest daily total - and .02 of an inch on Dec. 14 - the lowest daily total.

Rain remains in the forecast through Thursday, forecasters say, with the potential for a damaging windstorm Monday afternoon.

rain and warmer weather is melting any small snow I had...but the deer are moving

I grow near water, so no projected worries.

Oregon snowpack measures well above normal

Oregon snowpack measures well above normal

Weather is going nut everywhere. Drought in California, floodings in the UK and crazy warm weather in Germany. Birds are breeding and cherry trees are blossoming here. Temperatures are about 60 °F for weeks now.

Have you read?

Freak storm in North Atlantic to lash UK, may push temperatures over 50 degrees above normal at North Pole
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...atures-70-degrees-above-normal-at-north-pole/

For the Californians:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NkCKYh8L1s

I fear El Ninjo is everywhere.

California officials upbeat about snowpack, but long-range prospects are unknown

California officials upbeat about snowpack, but long-range prospects are unknown

Over the last several weeks, snowboarders and skiers alike have reveled in what seems to be bountiful Sierra Nevada snow.

All that powder has enabled even weary state water officials to express some optimism, a feeling buoyed Wednesday when surveyors took their first manual measurement of the Sierra snowpack and found more than 54 inches.

But for all of the excitement, the state’s broader drought outlook remains uncertain.

Although there was about twice as much water in the state’s snow as there was on the same day last year, and five times as much as the year before that, it still just amounts to an average total.

“Last year was so abysmally bad that even coming up to the average we have now looks good,” said Department of Water Resources spokesman Doug Carlson.

Snowpack is important because it melts during the spring and summer months and refills the state’s reservoirs. Officials say that in normal years the snowpack supplies about 30% of California’s water. They have also said that the state needs a snowpack equal to 150% of average by April 1 to have any chance at ending the drought.
On Wednesday, electronic readings from 99 stations throughout the Sierra Nevada showed that the snowpack statewide held 10.2 inches of “water equivalent” — or about 105% of average for the day.

The manual survey, taken at a single station about 90 miles east of Sacramento, was more promising but less telling. It found 54.7 inches of snow on the ground — 16 inches above average. The water held in that snow amounted to about 136% of normal for the site.

Pacific ‘blob’ breaking up, but that may not be good news

Pacific ‘blob’ breaking up, but that may not be good news

It is dissipating just as it showed up — rather unexpectedly.

For two years, an enormous expanse of extremely warm water in the northern Pacific Ocean has wreaked havoc on marine life from Alaska to Mexico, and altered weather patterns across North America, causing droughts and intensifying hurricanes.

It also helped produce this year’s powerful El Nino.

The phenomenon has beleaguered and mesmerized oceanographers. So much so that dozens of them gathered at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego in April to discuss it and its impacts.

Now, this blob — as it has come to be known — is starting to dissipate.

That’s good news, right?

Yes, and no.

“From an oceanographer’s perspective, we are eager to see normal conditions come back in the Pacific,” says Richard Dewey, associate director of science with Ocean Networks Canada, an initiative of the University of Victoria.

The blob has been extraordinary, in intensity and longevity, he says. “We are talking about a million square kilometres of ocean that is 3 C warmer … that represents a lot of heat.”

He’ll be relieved to see it go, he says, adding it will take a few months for it to disappear.

The problem is that the blob is a terrifying glimpse into what the future, driven by a changing climate, likely holds for us, says Dewey.

Blobs like this one could become frequent. If this warm blob is something that occurs every 10 years as opposed to every 100 years, it will mean a major change for the northeastern Pacific, he says.



Read the rest at The Toronto Sun http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...reaking-up-but-that-may-not-be-good-news.html

First in series of storms forecast for Southland expected to hit Sunday night

First in series of storms forecast for Southland expected to hit Sunday night

The new year’s first serious bout of wet weather driven by El Niño is forecast to hit the Southland this week, as several winter storms dump up to 6 inches of rain — double the normal total for the month of January — in and around Los Angeles.

The storms, which according to the National Weather Service will begin Sunday night and potentially last through Friday, will bring an increased risk of flooding, mudslides and dangerous surf in a region that so far has had an exceptionally dry winter.

The NWS predicts that the first spell of heavy rain will last from Sunday night through Monday morning. A second, more durable storm system should move over Southern California on Monday and Tuesday nights, bringing up to 4 inches of rain in some areas and possibly more than a foot of snow in the mountains. A final storm is expected to bring moderate rain on Thursday and Friday.

From what I've heard el ninos Come every 7 years or so. Depending on if we get hot or cold air running through California we will get the snowpack we need. Now if our government could build the necessary dams instead of breaking them down and if they quit sending the water down the hill is another question. Nature is nature and will continue to do its thing. I don't read too much into scientific research because they are only computer models and that's all. No computer model will show our future.

Storm Door Opening; Series of Storms to Bring Plenty of Rain, Snow

Storm Door Opening; Series of Storms to Bring Plenty of Rain, Snow

The series of storms impacting the West Coast this week will be a bit different than what the region has experienced in recent months. This go around, even Southern California can expect a decent helping of much-needed rain and mountain snow. For parts of the Siskiyous and Sierra, as well as parts of the Four Corners, expect hefty amounts of snow to pile up through the week ahead.
This will add to a Sierra snowpack that is much more substantial than at the same point last year. According to the USDA/NRCS, through Jan. 1, 2015, the Sierra snowpack was 100 percent or more of average for the season.

Seen this ebb/flow change several times, recalling a few epic years....in some areas, great for skiing, rafting....other areas, flooding beyond sand bag borders. Drought in other areas.

It'll be what it'll be. Got the snow shovel handy.

Another El Niño tantrum soaks the Southland

Another El Niño tantrum soaks the Southland

Another El Niño-fueled storm soaked Southern California on Wednesday and brought with it flooding, mudflows and even a small tornado that struck Orange County in the early afternoon.

Pea-sized hail and 45-mph winds made their way south from San Luis Obispo, forcing the region to recognize that the season of storms has commenced. As much as 5 inches of rain was expected to drop across the Southland.

Still, Wednesday's rain was fickle, with clouds parting at times to allow the sun to shine.

A flash-flood warning was issued for the Ventura County coast around Solimar Beach, and landslides forced the partial closure of the 101 Freeway at the State Beaches offramp. Rainfall on the area's hillsides, denuded by a fire that broke out on Christmas, sent mud into the northbound lanes of the freeway. A concrete-lined ditch that runs alongside the freeway offered little drainage help because it was already overflowing with water.

"This is only the beginning," said a Caltrans employee as he eyed a nearby hill, its scorched slope a menace when mixed with rain.

Less than two miles away, waves crashed against the cliffside homes of Mondos Beach as rain fell at a rate of about an inch an hour.
El Niño storm runoff fuels a fast-moving Los Angeles River

A usually tame Los Angeles River comes roaring to life in downtown Los Angeles during the recent string of El Niño-fueled storms.

Residents in the nearby small Ventura County beach community of La Conchita braced for a landslide, well aware of the one in which 10 people were killed a decade ago when 400,000 tons of mud slid down a bluff.

One homeowner wore a raincoat as he stood in his garage, watching the rain fall through a gray fog. The sound of car tires whooshing through puddles played in the background. His house, he said, had survived two landslides.

Rainfall was heavy but uneven during the 24-hour period that ended Wednesday night, with the San Gabriel Dam getting 3.51 inches, La Cañada Flintridge 2.17 inches and Santa Barbara 1.71 inches. Santa Monica, Palmdale and Long Beach each saw about a third of an inch, according to the National Weather Service.

from the LATIMES.

2015 was Oregon's warmest year on record, data shows

2015 was Oregon's warmest year on record, data shows

How Dry Was 2015? Pretty Damn Dry.

How Dry Was 2015? Pretty Damn Dry.

In California.

We got all the shit weather last year. Sept and Nov were over 40 inches of rain and a total 250 for the year. We are dry now

we are getting soaked and I love it....we need all the rain we can get here in cali ...the storms make kayak surfing fun as hell too....yeehaw

Heavy Rain, Mountain Snow Events Target West Coast

Heavy Rain, Mountain Snow Events Target West Coast

After an already wet first two weeks of January, another round of storm systems is set to impact California. This time, the most generous rain and mountain snow will target the northern part of California and the Pacific Northwest, where January has gotten off to a much drier start. Snow levels will be relatively high, but feet of snow will be possible in the higher elevations along with several inches of lower elevation rain.

Storms in Central and Northern California will have little effect on L.A. area

Storms in Central and Northern California will have little effect on L.A. area

A wave of storms is bringing rain and some flooding to Central and Northern California but will have little effect on the Los Angeles area over the next several days.

In Humboldt County, rivers and streams are at flood stage, sweeping over some low-lying fields, said meteorologist Ryan Aylward with the National Weather Service in Eureka. But so far, no residents have had to evacuate.

There are issues for travelers, including a rock slide that has closed Highway 299 near Big Bar.

Four to 7 inches of rain fell from 3 a.m. through about 5 p.m. Sunday.

Rainfall is running ahead of normal for January, although "it's definitely normal for us to be getting lots of rain," Aylward said. "We're expecting rain throughout the rest of the week."

The middle of the state has a similar forecast, according to the National Weather Service in Sacramento.

"We have a really strong, moist system," said meteorologist Craig Shoemaker. "You could call it an atmospheric river system."

One concern is flash flooding and mudslides in the burn areas from recent fires.

Shoemaker added: "We'll have a storm system, and then a day off, and then another storm system pretty much as far out as we can forecast over the next seven to eight days."

A succession of storms is typical for January and should not be considered an effect of El Niño, the Pacific weather pattern that could result in a heavy rain season near Los Angeles, Shoemaker said.

For the moment, the rain is putting just a "small dent" in the drought, he said. The water content of the snowpack in the northern and central Sierra is above normal for this time of year, but it's a little below normal in the southern Sierra.

The gradually melting snowpack is a major source of state water and is needed to replenish low reservoirs.

The storms to the north will have a modest effect in the Southland, resulting in a chance of showers around midday Monday. The daytime high temperatures are a little cooler than usual, topping out in the low 60s, but within range for this time of year, said meteorologist Robbie Munroe with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

"As far as a stronger storm, at this point, it doesn't look like anything is on the horizon over the next seven days," Munroe said.

Since Oct. 1, Los Angeles has recorded 3.75 inches of rain. The average season-to-date total is just above 4 inches.

But an El Niño pattern could deliver its biggest precipitation punch in late January or February, meteorologists said.

What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says

What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says

When the first hints of El Niño developed last year, experts believed that the brunt of the rain would occur in Southern California rather than Northern California.

So far this season, the opposite has happened.

Since Oct. 1, San Francisco was at 100% of average rainfall as of Monday; Eureka at 142% and Fresno, 152%. Yet Los Angeles was only at 64% of average.

What gives?

The answer is that much of the rain Northern California has received in recent months is not significantly related to El Niño. Most of that precipitation — including this week's storms hitting San Francisco — is coming from the typical winter weather pattern in California: cold storms from the northern Pacific Ocean, coming northwest of the state.

Northern California — like the rest of the state — saw less rain during four years of drought. But this season is shaping up to be a wet year in the north, bringing more rain and snow than the region has seen in several years.

The only El Niño-driven storms that have hit California arrived in the first week of January and then ended, said NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert.

"That was a trailer for the movie," Patzert said.

Unlike the typical winter storm that hits California from the northern Pacific Ocean, El Niño-influenced storms come from the west, just north of Hawaii, Patzert said.

They can wreak havoc on California because El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by warm ocean water west of Peru that can cause changes in the atmosphere, can cause a persistent series of subtropical storms to hit the state, one after another.

One reason why storms haven't been able to get through to Southern California in recent weeks is an area of high pressure southwest of the state that has been unusually persistent, Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain said.

Computer models suggest that there will be a burst of energy in the jet stream later in January.

The pattern suggests that "if there are any storms in the pipeline at the end of January, they will be able to both have a trajectory that might bring them into Southern California and it might allow them to maintain their strength," Swain said.

It's not the intensity of the storms that's the problem — it's the conveyor belt of wet systems that relentlessly douse the state, which eventually can cause hillsides to saturate and mud to start flowing. For instance, none of the storms that hit Los Angeles in February 1998 were individually spectacular, Patzert said, but combined, they dumped 14 inches of rain on the city — almost a year's worth.

El Niño influences this weather pattern because it can cause a subtropical jet stream — a narrow band of strong winds in the atmosphere that pushes storms west to east — to move from the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America to Southern California, Patzert said. In the strongest El Niño years, the jet stream can even marshal storms to cover Northern California.

Storms during the strongest El Niños on record doused the entire state, bringing double the rainfall in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 to both northern and southern California and double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada.

Experts say it's possible that the classic El Niño-influenced pattern could emerge by late January or early February. That would put it more in line with how the most punishing series of storms arrived in February 1998 and March of 1983.

"As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."

About 1,000 to 2,000 miles south of California, El Niño, the immense pool of warm water 2 1/2 times the size of the continental United States fueling atmospheric disturbances worldwide, is gathering strength again in the Pacific Ocean, Patzert said, after topping out in temperature in November. Patzert said there was yet again another weakening of the so-called trade winds in the central Pacific Ocean, which will allow the ocean west of Peru to heat up again, further fueling El Niño.
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"This thing is getting ready to have a second peak," Patzert said. "I think El Niño will live up to its hype, but you have to be patient."

LATimes

We've had the warmest winter I've ever seen up here in north middle Canada. Unbelievably warm. Not sure if it's related.