What's new
  • Please note members who been with us for more than 10 years have been upgraded to "Veteran" status and will receive exclusive benefits. If you wish to find out more about this or support IcMag and get same benefits, check this thread here.
  • Important notice: ICMag's T.O.U. has been updated. Please review it here. For your convenience, it is also available in the main forum menu, under 'Quick Links"!

How much weed do we really need?

OldPhart

Member
I can't help but wonder how much weed is really needed? Everyone and their brother is running out and setting up all these massive grows, who is going to smoke all that weed? Given the demand/supply equation, how long will it be before tobacco is more expensive than weed? Long ago I was stressing on how I was going to move a harvest, and an old hippy friend just looked at me like I was nuts, and said "few drugs go unsold". There has never been a more true statement; but I can see a day coming in the near future where there will be more weed laying around than everyone can possibly smoke. Maybe we can get the DEA to start exporting instead of importing? Hell, maybe trade it for coke and opium.... LOL
 

rolandomota

Well-known member
It might be abundant in places where its legal but theirs still 42 illegal or med only states. I guess the "overproduction" means more hash and rock bottom prices where its legal and larger black markets where its illegal. Pounds of Mexican brickweed are 300 around 20 an ounce and sell for 40 50 max in border cities with mexico do you think domestic grown will ever be that price? Maybe in the legal states when buying in bulk but not the behind the times stubborn states that wont legalize theirs always going to be 20$ a gram of bud dealers where supply is low. Thats what happenes in texas you get an ounce for 250 280 about 10 a gram and you have to sell it for 20 or skimp the grams to .6 if your a real asshole. Fuck that 20$ oz mex brick for the win
 

OldPhart

Member
Problem is, there is literally tons of weed but real top shelf bud is harder and harder to find.

I agree. What bothers me more than the quality though, is what have the cash croppers dumped on their crop to protect their investment. If my sole objective was to make $$ and I had a butt load of money invested, I would be doing preemptive pest control spraying myself. As for me, I don't really care about the market, just more of an observation. I'm content to sit at home and smoke what I grow, because I know exactly how it has been grown and handled.
 

OldPhart

Member
It might be abundant in places where its legal but theirs still 42 illegal or med only states. I guess the "overproduction" means more hash and rock bottom prices where its legal and larger black markets where its illegal. Pounds of Mexican brickweed are 300 around 20 an ounce and sell for 40 50 max in border cities with mexico do you think domestic grown will ever be that price? Maybe in the legal states when buying in bulk but not the behind the times stubborn states that wont legalize theirs always going to be 20$ a gram of bud dealers where supply is low. Thats what happenes in texas you get an ounce for 250 280 about 10 a gram and you have to sell it for 20 or skimp the grams to .6 if your a real asshole. Fuck that 20$ oz mex brick for the win

I bet it will get much better in the near future. I know KS quality has gone up since CO went legal, and price has gone down. As more legal states come online, I bet the overflow will make it around the country. I'm in MA, and it is nuts right now up here. There are a LOT of people going to the 'weed university' that has been setup. Then they are setting up massive grow rooms. Keep in mind these folks have no idea how they are going to move the product, they just want in on the 'industry'. All that weed is going to go somewhere.
 

Skip

Active member
Veteran
I can't help but wonder how much weed is really needed? Everyone and their brother is running out and setting up all these massive grows, who is going to smoke all that weed? Given the demand/supply equation, how long will it be before tobacco is more expensive than weed? Long ago I was stressing on how I was going to move a harvest, and an old hippy friend just looked at me like I was nuts, and said "few drugs go unsold". There has never been a more true statement; but I can see a day coming in the near future where there will be more weed laying around than everyone can possibly smoke. Maybe we can get the DEA to start exporting instead of importing? Hell, maybe trade it for coke and opium.... LOL

It might be abundant in places where its legal but theirs still 42 illegal or med only states. I guess the "overproduction" means more hash and rock bottom prices where its legal and larger black markets where its illegal. Pounds of Mexican brickweed are 300 around 20 an ounce and sell for 40 50 max in border cities with mexico do you think domestic grown will ever be that price? Maybe in the legal states when buying in bulk but not the behind the times stubborn states that wont legalize theirs always going to be 20$ a gram of bud dealers where supply is low. Thats what happenes in texas you get an ounce for 250 280 about 10 a gram and you have to sell it for 20 or skimp the grams to .6 if your a real asshole. Fuck that 20$ oz mex brick for the win

I bet it will get much better in the near future. I know KS quality has gone up since CO went legal, and price has gone down. As more legal states come online, I bet the overflow will make it around the country. I'm in MA, and it is nuts right now up here. There are a LOT of people going to the 'weed university' that has been setup. Then they are setting up massive grow rooms. Keep in mind these folks have no idea how they are going to move the product, they just want in on the 'industry'. All that weed is going to go somewhere.

It's already saturated in places. In areas where it is being grown in abundance there is an oversupply of commercial crap, only a small portion of that actually gets sold in the same area.

Most growers have stashes of previous crops that didn't sell well.

I've seen bust pics of hundreds of pounds of old unsalable crap (some growers just can't seem to dump anything, esp. if trimmed). That's why some are turning that into hash, oil, etc. along with their trim.

Since it takes new growers a few tries to get it right, they usually have trouble selling their first goes.

DEA moves more drugs around than big Pharma...

And I've seen prices drop in California to < $900 a pound for commercial last year. But the new recreational law that comes into effect in January will probably increase demand in Ca significantly.

So there is always room for quality product everywhere. And the good news is there is more of it, but also a lot more commercial to cover demand elsewhere.

Another issue is what happens when the industrial sized grows (tens of thousands of sq ft) multiply and distribute everywhere it's legal?

Will government regulation keep supply under control by limiting grow sizes and number of grows?

I think the real question for many growers who want to succeed is "What differentiates commercial from medical quality marijuana".

That would make a good thread if we don't have one already.
 

brown_thumb

Active member
I can't help but wonder how much weed is really needed? Everyone and their brother is running out and setting up all these massive grows, who is going to smoke all that weed? Given the demand/supply equation, how long will it be before tobacco is more expensive than weed? Long ago I was stressing on how I was going to move a harvest, and an old hippy friend just looked at me like I was nuts, and said "few drugs go unsold". There has never been a more true statement; but I can see a day coming in the near future where there will be more weed laying around than everyone can possibly smoke. Maybe we can get the DEA to start exporting instead of importing? Hell, maybe trade it for coke and opium.... LOL

A neighbor of mine built a lean-to greenhouse for me... nearly useless due to the very limited amount of sun it receives. I supplied the materials and he the labor. I estimate he put in three full days (24 hours) labor. So far, he expected 8 ounces (240 grams) of premium weed which we agreed was worth US$100 per ounce (per 30 grams). This is in an 'illegal' area so that's a very low price for premium strain properly dried and cured weed. It's probably worth 2-3 times that much. He expects another ounce, at least. So... in truth, he wants 9 ounces of $200 per ounce weed for his 24 hours work... that's $1800 worth of weed... that's US$75 per hour... and the damn greenhouse leaks like a sieve. What a 'friend', eh?

The point it is, others will leech off of you.... so you may need 5-10 times what you need for yourself.

Greedy, selfish bastards and thieves... everywhere. Watch your back!!

I'm not selling. I'm just trying to treat my own illnesses. I'm taking all the risks... others just take and take and take.
 

Pwyll

Member
In Colorado the wholesale price of weed went from $1800 to $900. But in Colorado most of the weed is sold at commodity prices whereas I believe in cali there is a bigger market for premium product.
 

yesum

Well-known member
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Illegal weed will fall like a rock, has already in California. Legal will be taxed and regulated so much like tobacco that it will most likely never be real cheap.

Places like Oklahoma which may never legalize, I guess it will be a fairly high end product. As more states legalize the overflow will go into the illegal states and drive down prices.

Sam Skunkman said you can grow outdoor pot for about the same cost as tomatoes. Having grown both I think that pot is harder to do well but I get his point. Boutique pot will always have a small clientele willing to pay more.
 

Dropped Cat

Six Gummi Bears and Some Scotch
Veteran
I know a guy out west that grows in several greenhouses,
commercial, organic kosher, 70K sqft.

He pre sells the entire crop while in veg.

One of his plots got seeded involuntarily and he made
more money from the seeds then from the harvest.

Fired the horticulturist, lol

Good times
 

Lester Beans

Frequent Flyer
Veteran
Illegal weed will fall like a rock, has already in California. Legal will be taxed and regulated so much like tobacco that it will most likely never be real cheap.

Places like Oklahoma which may never legalize, I guess it will be a fairly high end product. As more states legalize the overflow will go into the illegal states and drive down prices.

Sam Skunkman said you can grow outdoor pot for about the same cost as tomatoes. Having grown both I think that pot is harder to do well but I get his point. Boutique pot will always have a small clientele willing to pay more.

I agree with Sam. It is however, as difficult to cultivate high quality cannabis as it is high quality tomatoes. That's the difference, anyone can grow average weed or red round bland tomatoes. Its the good stuff that is so hard to find and commands the top prices.

There will always be demand for the very finest, regardless of the legal status.

Fat spliff and a nice tomato sandwich.....woot woot!
 

St. Phatty

Active member
One way to approach it is, ask the question -

What is total consumption, informal ("black market") and formal ("legal") ?

Will total consumption INCREASE now that some states have quasi-legalization ?


Personally, I've never been more inclined to consume pot because it was legal.

My consumption didn't go up because it was legal.

I didn't spend more because it was legal.


Obviously, we can't extrapolate from my own experience, or other old-timers.


But it seems to me, demand is relatively static - people who like pot are already smoking it.

And the supply ... WOW.

It seems like people are thinking, "if I'm going to make money, I have to grow A LOT."


But it results in a situation that reminds me of "Game Theory".

With all the growers doing what is logical to increase their grow revenues, supply increases massively ... prices drop ... the growers who can move their product/ have good connections generate some revenues.

Overall, however, I don't think the total amount of money people spend on Cannabis is going to increase.


If only we could convince the Chinese that they need American weed ... and that's it worth as much as an iPhone.
 

Pwyll

Member
I agree with Sam. It is however, as difficult to cultivate high quality cannabis as it is high quality tomatoes. That's the difference, anyone can grow average weed or red round bland tomatoes. Its the good stuff that is so hard to find and commands the top prices.

There will always be demand for the very finest, regardless of the legal status.

Fat spliff and a nice tomato sandwich.....woot woot!

If I go into a local grocery store I can find tomatoes from say $1 a pound to $3 a pound. And that's just regular tomatoes, nothing fancy.Weed the price from any given supplier typically doesn't vary by more than 25%, if that. So there is not much incentive to grow long-flowering low yielding strains. Except for personal use and sharing
 
Last edited:

MJPassion

Observer
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Excellent point Pwyall.

Until the market hits its saturation point, there will never be enough.
I don't think we're anywhere near that point in the USA. We're a bunch of consumers!
 

hellfire

Active member
It's going to be about people's tastes and flavors, plus what sells commercial. Think of it like beer, there's going to be craft organic bud and commercial Monsanto coor light tier bud.

Prices will definitely drop, unless you have that niche.
 
B

bigganjabud

I be honest mate I need it all but not dud bud them superhero strains with added Shatter in me doors for me so yeah.......

I need it all
 

DocTim420

The Doctor is OUT and has moved on...
If you compare cannabis to the wine industry, then I believe there are several parallels to what happens there--will/might happen here.

There are basically 3 tranches of wine consumers: High End, Low End and Commercial.

High End wine (quality over quantity) has a penchant for complexity and rarity (complex flavors/aromas that are rare and hard to find). About half of the production is sold by the winery via "club" or "membership lists" with waiting lists and the other half going to restaurants/hotels...rarely are bottles sold in retail stores. The High End consumer has no problem dropping several Benjamins for a single bottle of wine and may belong to several "clubs" thus receiving several shipments during the year. This group experiences the least amount of decline during a economic recession and the largest growth during good times.

Low End wine (quantity over quality) where low/affordable pricing is name of the game. Wine is sourced from mediocre vineyards and blended together to maintain consistent "quality"...always tastes the same. Sold in gallon jugs, boxed wine and available everywhere. The Low End consumer will never spend $100 for a bottle of wine and are proud of their $2 buck chuck finds. This tranche of consumers increases during bad economic times and decreases during good economic times...it basically is contrarian to current economics of the marketplace.

Commercial quality wine (everyone else) is the largest group of consumers and is produced by small guys (less then 30,000 cases per year) and ginormous wineries (those that produce 500,000+ cases per year). All High End winos were "commercial winos" at one time, but not all "commercial winos" become "High End winos". High turnover of vineyards and wineries is commonplace due to the slim margins for profit (primarily to distribution costs). Majority of commercial wine consumers buy more wine during good economic times...and less when times are tough--it basically mirrors the current economics of the marketplace.

So, there you have it. High End consumers remain loyal during bad times and increase in numbers during good times. Low End consumers buy more during bad times and decrease in numbers during good times (many graduate to "commercial consumer" status). Commercial consumers mirror the economics of their consumers--increased sales during good times, decreased sales during bad times.

Sooo...if you grow the strain that everybody else grows, grow the same style and use same methods as everybody else, including the same nutes and ferts, then should it be any surprise that you are stuck in the "commercial" tranche and getting the same low price as everybody else is getting?

I say--pick your market...then exploit yourself.
 

Moonjuice5050

Active member
In Colorado the wholesale price of weed went from $1800 to $900. But in Colorado most of the weed is sold at commodity prices whereas I believe in cali there is a bigger market for premium product.

Yeah hahaha wow of your poppin offlbs for that price A:your sellin Schwag B: your desperate and have no clients C:your a bitch and can't handle biz D: you're part of the problem bringing our fire ass ganja down in price cuz u flooding the market with bullshit, I'm still getting 2-2.4...best step that game up haha or get the fuck out
 

Moonjuice5050

Active member
And by the way I've lived n Nederland for nearly 8 years don't give me the,,,you don't even know what's up talk, I love that town and most of the growers there, have a special place in my heart, nonetheless I spread the chem91, Durban, White Russian, up there
 

Latest posts

Latest posts

Top