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Fingers crossed for prop 205 in AZ

paper thorn

Active member
Veteran
With less than 3 weeks to go...

Polls here in Arizona are holding at 50% ish FOR 205 and 42% OPPOSED.

I already cast my vote for it.

The lies by the antis are in full swing, so many people really don't know shit, I'm a bit worried.

All the people I talk to about it either are for it or depend on the news lady or anti 205 commercials for their opinion.
 

igrowone

Well-known member
Veteran
i will join you in the hope, it sounds very promising
and in maine and in massachusetts and in california
4 more legal rec states could be the start of the avalanche

edit: left out nevada, make that 5
 

Ralp

Member
The independent poll, by Phoenix-based Data Orbital, also shows Prop 205, the initiative that would legalize recreational marijuana in Arizona, is a tossup, with 45 percent of voters opposing it, 44 percent in support and 5 percent undecided.
 

mofeta

Member
Veteran
There is a more recent poll, with a larger sample size, that was conducted by better pollsters that shows a clear lead for Prop 205.

Data Orbital is just one guy, I don't think he has ever done any other polls.

The better poll to look at is the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll done a few days after the sketchy Data Orbital one. It was done by the a large international polling/market research firm that has been around for over 50 years, in conjunction with Arizona State University. 50 percent for, 42 against, 8 undecided.

Poll: Arizona voters still favor legalizing marijuana
 

Ralp

Member
One guy doing polls LMAO
Arizona Proposition 205 (2016)
Poll Support Oppose Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size
The Arizona Republic, Morrison, and Cronkite News
10/10/2016 - 10/15/2016 50.4% 41.6% 8.0% +/-4.0 811
HighGround Public Affairs
10/14/2016 49.8% 45.3% 4.9% +/-4.88 400
Data Orbital
10/11/2016 - 10/12/2016 44.0% 45.0% 11.0% +/-4.12 500
OH Predictive Insights
9/28/2016 - 9/30/2016 43.0% 47.0% 10.0% +/-3.66 718
OH Predictive Insights
8/24/2016 - 8/27/2016 40.0% 51.0% 9.0% +/-3.63 728
The Arizona Republic, Morrison, and Cronkite News
8/17/2016 - 8/31/2016 50.0% 40.0% 10.0% +/-3.4 784
The Arizona Republic
4/11/2016 - 4/14/2016 43.0% 49.0% 8.0% +/-4.0 500
AVERAGES 45.74% 45.56% 8.7% +/-3.96 634.43
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
 

Ralp

Member
It has been floated around as rumor the Sheriff Joe Arpaio won't win re-election and Governor Ducey will appoint Joe Arpaio to this new department if it wins. Floating around the legislature now looking for support and gaining. It is the legislature that ratifies department heads.
 

Ralp

Member
What some dont consider is the Arizona Republic, Morrison, Cronkite is a poll done by the Cronkite School of Journalism, which is on the ASU Campus, which there and the area around the University Metro Phoenix campus street polling. The Data Orbital is a phone canvas done primarily of the Peoria, Scottsdale, Mesa, which has a much higher voter turnout and done off of past voter rolls. Not a street canvas.
 

mofeta

Member
Veteran
One guy doing polls LMAO

Yes I am laughing at him too. His "data analysis and political consulting firm" has one employee- him. He is also a biased political operative:

About George Khalaf said:
Most recently, he served as Political Director and State Victory Director at the Arizona Republican Party. In that role, George managed 12 field offices and oversaw all grassroots activity in a year that saw Republicans have a clean sweep of statewide offices and majorities in both chambers.

Prior to his time at the Republican Party, George served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Maricopa County Supervisor Denny Barney. In this role he was responsible for constituent services and worked directly with Supervisor Barney and the Chief of Staff.

Before coming to Maricopa County, George was an Associate at DC London where he helped manage a multi-million dollar field operation across 16 target states. Based in Washington DC for the Presidential cycle, he trained field operatives in battleground states on cutting edge technology and grassroots operations.

Denny Barney is a hard right Republican, this is him.

DC London is a hard right political firm, working hard to advance the Republican agenda, here is their Facebook page.

The testimonials on his website are from Mark Brnovich, the rabidly anti-marijuana Republican Attorney General of AZ and from Citizen Link, a religious, right-wing political organization that is about as anti-marijuana as you can be. This is them.

So, just to be clear, Data Orbital is a one man operation. He is a biased political hack. He is virulently anti-marijuana and anti-liberty. His poll is propaganda, it is crap.
 
Last edited:

mofeta

Member
Veteran
What some dont consider is the Arizona Republic, Morrison, Cronkite is a poll done by the Cronkite School of Journalism, which is on the ASU Campus, which there and the area around the University Metro Phoenix campus street polling. The Data Orbital is a phone canvas done primarily of the Peoria, Scottsdale, Mesa, which has a much higher voter turnout and done off of past voter rolls. Not a street canvas.

Complete disinformation. Here is the truth:

About the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll said:
The Arizona Republic collaborated with Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy and Cronkite News at ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication for this poll, jointly selecting topics and developing the questions. Behavior Research Center, a Phoenix-based marketing and public-opinion research firm, was hired to collect the data.

From Oct. 10 to Oct. 15, poll-takers conducted live telephone interviews, asking questions of likely Arizona voters from across the state. On average, 811 voters responded to each of the poll questions.

The voters were identified using an updated voter-registration database, including voters who registered for Arizona’s August primary. The statewide sample was weighted to represent the demographics of Arizona’s registered voters.

The sample used phone numbers reported by the registered voters themselves. (Whether the number was for a landline or cellphone is unknown.) If needed, the 27-question survey was conducted in Spanish.

About the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll

I noticed this part of your post:

The Data Orbital is a phone canvas done primarily of the Peoria, Scottsdale, Mesa, which has a much higher voter turnout and done off of past voter rolls. Not a street canvas.

This is very detailed knowledge of the Data Orbital "poll". The only publicly available demographic info on this poll only lists by congressional district.

Hmm, knows behind the scene details of a anti-marijuana propaganda poll, spreads anti-marijuana disinformation trying to demoralize pro-marijuana folks....
 

Ralp

Member
Originally Posted by About the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll
he Arizona Republic collaborated with Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy and Cronkite News at ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication for this poll, jointly selecting topics and developing the questions. Behavior Research Center, a Phoenix-based marketing and public-opinion research firm, was hired to collect the data.

So this Arizona Republic Morrison Cronkite ASU journalism pol was really outsourced to behavioral research center. Nice poll WTF
 

Ralp

Member
Mofeta the truth is devoid in your understanding to that whatever delusional political underlinings you manifest in your mind I can't fathom or comment on.

The truth is not being discussed just a selfish can I can stoned and grow some plants. The polls you state are outsourced and look at them as absolute. I gave a list to 7 registered polsters and the combined information was posted. I understand you need a Nixon to promote your ideals.

The world has changed but not Arizona, still have people quoting what they think Nixon and Bush said and did. This myopic ignorant understanding on how government works and what it needs to go forward.

Other states have recognized how to do this so they have folded the Marijuana into the existing state government. Here in Arizona it will build it own separate government aside from the oversight of protections built in for the people in the constitution. This will sidestep all of that and the summation given by the Holyoak and his crew is "To Be Determined (TBD)" A new rewrite of how marijuana will be implemented. Do you even fathom that the New department will set the cost of the Medical License. So if the rules committee is under the impression that to much Medical is being sifted to the recreational market so the raise the cost of the medical license to off set the loss of revenue/tax's

This prop 205 is the Republican marketeers the legalize of the proposal was written by BYU Public Admin & Business law Students retained by MPP . You just don't see the windfall that will be going to retired police officer's thus their restructured retirement that took a hit this will replace that. the mandatory funding for abuse controls to offset TASC and that worthless cause. Where court ordered intervention charged and monies stifled back to the County Attorney budget. This is nothing more that to extract the most out of consuming marijuana and marijuana products. Basically this says anyone using marijuana is a druggie we wont insure you, we wont protect your right to employment right to privacy.

Oh and by the way nothing happens till March of 2018 anyway and sales can't start till November till 11/2018. This will limit all other grows outside existing dispensaries till license are allowed for them in 1/2020 This is the republican coming in the backdoor It is a good thing I guess Tucson Has the Bonanno, Licavoli, Battaglia, famlies fractions looking for more AZ investments.
 

Ralp

Member
let's also interject if this 205 proposal fails by a thin margin it will be by those disenfranchised patients by this sham of a proposal. The republican's want this it proposes to do what the war on drugs couldn't. Buying into that philosophy with this proposal says marijuana is part and parcel to drug abuse and should bear the brunt of the cost and enforcement of all illegal drug activity. The Gateway drug idea repackaged the idea if we can control the gate fees we control the activity inside the gate.

There is a lot of work to do to do this right 205 most probably will fail. That does not mean the work is over. To blame this on conservative republican is just ridiculous it is the fractions inside the marijuana business that tainted the waters.

look at that guy in Tucson Aari Rubin his father a doctor n the southside of Tucson ran a pill mill turning our barbs & opiates like candy raided several times by the DEA. Aari was the business manager for daddies pill mill. Then he won the lottery to get a dispensary now he contributed heavily to stop all competition as well as lending startup monies to other dispensaries lottery as personal loans and follow his business plan of price controls and marketing. Yea keep the cartels out we will just license them pay a cop to watch the gate and away we go.

It is really sad that some are buying the idea that this benefits Arizona. Arizona spends between Guadalupe and Tucson school districts 130 million to just keep attorney's on retainer to represent the school districts and the plaintiffs and the special Master ordered by the court to desegregation suit brought in 1968 extrapolated on data from when Arizona was a territory. Tucson Unified SD the largest in the state has an Hispanic population of 77% one school has 50% and another has 90% so TUSD needs forced bussing for about the population of those 2 school are 487 children today cost 5 million+. Now the Federal District court is ordering Arizona to do more studies to show the court as right with the 5 contradicting plaintiffs it can't figure what to do drop it or order more studies and cost by the DOJ projected costs 12 million. This is the Arizona school budget the Idea that one can smoke up and continue this travesty is personally revolting

More of this is what prop 205 will be funding
 

paper thorn

Active member
Veteran
You say the Republicans want 205.

Huh? Seems that they are leaders in the NO on 205 campaign.

I agree that the prop is not the best, but I think if it loses the 'we don't want mj in az' drumbeat will take over.
I don't know, maybe the next time will be a better prop. but...
The trend is toward more restrictive legal and mmj laws. The next one will probably leave out home grows and more.
I already sent my early ballot in.
only 2 votes count in my mind

I voted yes on 205
And I voted for Donald Trump.

Fuck the anti-mj crowd
fuck the establishment, fuck the globalists.
 

Ralp

Member
You say the Republicans want 205.

Huh? Seems that they are leaders in the NO on 205 campaign.

I agree that the prop is not the best, but I think if it loses the 'we don't want mj in az' drumbeat will take over.
I don't know, maybe the next time will be a better prop. but...
The trend is toward more restrictive legal and mmj laws. The next one will probably leave out home grows and more.
.

Really think about it a billionaire that installs tires what kind of liability in legal suits he faces with I can't even imagine the financial impact that would have on a tire installer in our court system. A million buck is cheap to keep his liability insurance.

I hope for realistic Marijuana Laws for Az like who will be the owners?
Can they lend deposits in reserve in the deposits with the state Dept of Revenue >>TO THEMSELVES @ what interest what the security the grow.

What is being sold here is the attempt to control the drug market and distribution points like smoke shops. This is the selling to the conservative pundits profile we have all been indoctrinated to believe.

Both side of the equation of politics have to have profile boogy fear to defend against. The religious zealots Jerry Falwell were never more than 2% of the party but represented at the whole. They are dead and gone that was 2 decades ago.

I laugh at the prospect that Ben Stein was a speechwriter for Nixon He has stated several times getting stoned playing chess & scrabble writing speeches. Then there was William F Buckley who confided several time going out in international waters and getting high.

I can go back to old 68 Time magazines of Phoenix that show high school kids getting high that became powerful citizens in Arizona.
 

Ralp

Member
I am a part time resident in AZ if this pass's probably less time. Arizona is set up as a support of business first.

To have a internationally owned properties they need to be secured. The prop 205 secures these business by Arizona State constitution security.

Big business would not bank on perspective ventures without this 205. Big business tobacco, pharmaceuticals, venture capitol investors they all need prop 205 which does little for the people.

I believe only one person should be allowed a dispensary license and cannot be sold to another it must be put up for lottery again. same cost to enter as before.

We will see lambs to the slaughter. All of the golf club Sunday social groups and council meeting I frequent. They hear this profiling of neo-conservative right wingnut being thrown around like it was today's truth.

To so many they want this as they consider the pot smoking zealots ranting republican as scary this will tax them control them keep the boot on the back of the neck with their dollar. And guess what who owns all the potential grows. Conservative Republican's like JP Holyoak. Jee's Arizonans are afraid of everything the even make stuff to keep people in office to stop the fears.

Arizona still has forced bussing in school districts that are 77% hispanic trying to off set to have 74% to be represent the districts equally. That cost the state Dept of Edu $200.000.000.00 annually that is 200 million so the 40 million > 60 80 fuck let say 159 millon taxed from pot to education give me that blunt if it is good enough all will be edurated
 

mofeta

Member
Veteran
Well, right now at 9:25pm, it is about 53% NO, 47% YES. This might look bad, but this is with only the mail-in ballots counted in Maricopa and Pima counties (these two big urban counties usually decide these types of voter initiatives). There are 0% of polling place votes in Pima and only a few percent polling place votes in Maricopa. The mail in ballots are skewed to NO, and the polling place votes will heavily favor YES. Once the polling place votes for Maricopa and Pima start rolling in, look for YES to gain on NO.

It will be close but I think it will pass.
 

mofeta

Member
Veteran
Looks like it is going to fail. I don't see any way it could pull it out.

I am not too disappointed personally, but I feel bad for any of you guys that are.

Ralp was right about the demographics on this. The NO voters were super-energized, voting early and turning out like big dogs. I think that Mike Noble was right about the NO vote riding on the coattails of Donald Trump. It is going to fail in Maricopa county by more than 30K votes! Wow. In Pima, YES is ahead but looks like in the end it will only be by a couple thousand. Yuma and Yavapai were crushing NO votes, in Yuma it was 2:1 against. Prop 205 got beat as bad as Hillary!
 

Ralp

Member
Do you want a hard reality, it was approximately 7/8% of the MMJ card holders that were passionate of defeating this 205. That in their sphere of peers that swung 3+ people around them to a no vote.

So 95,000 mmj card holders @ 7% of them influencing them plus 3 others that would have swung 28,000 from the no to the the yea and won. That double edge sword of greeds backswing could of been decimation of all who use marijuana. All should be celebrating from been pulling from the abyss.

The saviors the true soldiers in the fight of peril were the old long time users and compassionate users of marijuana not the profiled religious right grab bags of exploitation pundits. It was those that have walked down life's highway and know what caution and no guardrail means. This prop wanted to add no shoulder and falling rocks and will be maintained when needed. As long as I got my license to drive I am good to go with 6 plants in the back seat.

Moral here is 7 % changed the possibility to win. 7% of the disenfranchised as a noise in the back of the room, 7% that pleaded prayed and anguish of this for 2 years now, 7% that didn't have paid signature collectors, 7% that were not seen from DC, 7% that were called the fringe of the movement, 7% that stood not to gain nothing more than marijuana freedom, 7% that gained the trust of peers in the community over year of acceptance. With affirmation that they have used this clandestinely since the 60's taken positions of power and influence. It is them yea it is them that saved the MMJ program want a leglization to pass dont shit in a hospital bed saying it protects the environment.
 

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