[mofeta]

Originally Posted by wolfhoundaddy

Just saw the news. They still have over 350,000 votes to tally in maricopa county.

This is correct. It is not over by a long shot. I suspected this might be the case last night with the bizarrely lopsided vote against 205 in Maricopa county. It didn't make sense, as it should have at least been close.

If you look into the details, I think it is still possible that it could pass. I bet it will be at least close.

Currently, NO has about 83K more votes than YES.

From what I can gather, the votes to be counted break down like this:

470K total broken down into:

415K early ballots of which 200K were mailed in and just hadn't been counted yet, and 215K that were dropped off at polling places.

55K provisional ballots

This is interesting because of the demographics of these different types of ballots. The people that requested early ballots and mailed them in before the election favored Donald Trump and NO on Prop 205. So those 200K uncounted mailed-in ballots should add anywhere from 5K to 10K to the NO side, resulting in an overall lead by NO of 88K to 93K.

The 215K early ballots that were turned in at the polling places on election day are a different story though. Most of these kind of ballots are from a demographic that will heavily favor YES (urban minorities and young people). The way I figure it, a little more than 70% of these would have to be YES to draw even with a NO total of 93K. This is possible. The early ballots turned in to polling places on election day really do skew very heavily to the right demo for this to be possible.

The provisional ballots are similar. These are ballots from people where there is some irregularity, like they don't have the correct ID or they are not on the roster of the polling location. This demo is mainly comprised of disadvantaged people, minorities, and young people, in other words, YES voters. I think that once the valid provisional ballots are counted, they will favor YES in a similar proportion as the early ballots dropped off at the polling places.

So, don't get your hopes up too much, but it is definitely possible it will pass. I think it will.

[Ralp]

This is not going to be easy. I believe the profile characteristics you describe in the column categories are not reflective of the marijuana consumer in AZ. I do believe it profiles the average person that it is the majority the dispensaries customer. I also believe that this artificial price structure enables a patient underground to supply the populace. Tho hardly reflects the true face of marijuana consumption in Arizona. Political and income demographics are easy however nondeterministic categories of user. there are other barometers of consumer/user that I believe are more accurate but others pay for that.

Originally Posted by mofeta

This is correct. It is not over by a long
This is interesting because of the demographics of these different types of ballots. The people that requested early ballots and mailed them in before the election favored Donald Trump and NO on Prop 205.

The provisional ballots are similar. These are ballots from people where there is some irregularity, like they don't have the correct ID or they are not on the roster of the polling location. This demo is mainly comprised of disadvantaged people, minorities, and young people,

So, don't get your hopes up too much, but it is definitely possible it will pass. I think it will.

Well final count is in didn't change the ratio much at all.
You know there are some that have managed to live a good prosperous life in AZ all the while using marijuana.

These people buys no less than a pound at a time from long time associates. These Trump supporters as profiled, have watched how marijuana enforcement, court, covert operations, drug counseling, incarceration, RICO, personal rights turned into civil actions, police and judicial corruption.

Now the interest will be to stop all advertising, media print billboards any type of thing that promote how to commit a federal crime has to be child protected away from young eyes and influence. We did it for Tobacco Alcohol Marijuana too or is this a separate but equal thing like the Jim Crow thing or the Clinton Gay Military thing.

There is really only ONE target here get the feds to take off the schedule 1 list. Colorado reduce it right to grow to 6 plants of which only 3 can be in flower no registration required buy and sell seeds. Oregon has suspended its rule roll out on coming in line with Washington. California proposed the same rule but problems now between license to grow and sell are to be given out on the same day.
It is a national rules and standards that MPP is trying to lobby to all state governmental agencies to tailor to their states obligatory responsibilities in respect to how marijuana has been administered both enforcement and judicially by each state.

MPP & ADA both tailored enforcement and business to be tailored to a select few and to make a organization that can be sold on the NYSE. Protected by the harshest noncompliant laws in the country by far. Isolated from the legislature the use of civil powers to conduct covert police operations. Anyone that would go for this is of diminished capacity. We will protect the kiddies and pay for education. Big Tobacco and Monsanto here we come it is ready how much will you pay me for this?

Well Mr Holyoak we will make you a cash offer but really. We will fold you into the corporation and give you stock put you on the board with a annual salary car ins travel entertainment and hey if our lifestyle gets to much we can always raise the price.

Like it has been done and we should keep doing, that in the food chain as if there was not wrong in the first place should be kept and maintained.

[Ralp]

With that I will bid this room a goodby I thank You for the time to list with constructive outlines and concerns to the marijuana Issues facing Arizona. My only interest is that laws are applied fairly and equally if not is is government oppression. All societies are built on growth those that are not are quickly assimilated by the ones that have laws.

Prop 205 was not fairness but attempting to sell the ability to control human behavior. Doing so by building controlling & market forces and enforcement for noncompliance. For a seed what it produce worried that it might upset market and it's forces of protection. This is just not right Arizona can get it right this next 2 years will be all telling and worth the wait.

If you are a consumer and use is about an ounce of flower a month the 15% excise tax and the 10% sales tax = 28% tax @ POS with the attributed impact fees/taxes applied for all the other license and fees attached before it get to the POS the average tax cost at point of sale is about 45% using Washington state averages very similar to arizona tax base. and still the average price per gram is $8.37 for flower. The average income is 1.57 that of the Arizona citizen.

So bottom line if you paid 15% proposed tax you will have paid for the $300.00 medical Marijuana card in 3 months at current tax rates not so expensive after all and hundreds of more protections. Dont be a fool

[mofeta]

Originally Posted by Ralp

Well final count is in didn't change the ratio much at all.

No it isn't.

Helen Purcell said they were able to count approximately 100K of the 470k uncounted ballots a day. Seems like she estimated correctly, as since yesterday, they counted about 94K.

51.7% of the 94K newly counted votes were YES, 48.3% NO, so the ratio was reversed in favor of YES.

If it continues this rate, that won't be good enough, remember I said a little more than 70% would need to be YES. We have no idea which type of ballot those 94K new votes were though, early mailed in, early dropped off at polling station, or provisional. My guess is that they were mainly early mailed-in (NO demographic) with a few early dropped off or provisional (YES demographic) mixed in.

The picture will become clear over the next couple of days.

[igrowone]

let me add a little NY feeling on this
it ain't over till it's over
4 is a grand slam, but 5 is even sweeter(nevada, maine, massachusetts, california, and arizona)

[rolandomota]

Man what A bummer I thought az was for sure since all possession is a felony but then again all those potential yes votes were silenced because it's a felony to have any amount of weed. They will pass it next time I'm almost sure of it.

[paper thorn]

Originally Posted by mofeta

The provisional ballots are similar. These are ballots from people where there is some irregularity, like they don't have the correct ID or they are not on the roster of the polling location. This demo is mainly comprised of disadvantaged people, minorities, and young people,

OK, first, I have to address this myth.

Seems to be the mainstream mantra.

Minorities have driver's licences just like 'white folks'

so do 18 year olds.

jeesh



Now to 205

Republicans did campaign against 205. The voters against it on the Rep. side were by peeps who never read word one of the prop.

These are antis and NEVER would have voted FOR legalization.

I'm a Republican and I voted FOR 205, as did all the other Republicans that I know. A couple were hard sales, but I brought them around.

Here's the thing though. This gets surprised looks from all the non 205 voters I've met the last few days.

The reason 205 failed is not because the people who would vote no regardless voted no, but because the pro pot people voted no.

The voter guide that the state sent out had 'FOR and 'AGAINST' arguments. The against arguments you expect are from dickheads like Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery. Full of lies about how it would be the Wild West.

The Republicans were preaching to the choir though, those folks were antis already.

A guy named James Feder? had over half of the arguments AGAINST from a pro pot point of view. He said it's phony legalization and was too restrictive.

The PRO POT guys who led the charge AGAINST 205 were going directly after the YES votes.

That's why 205 lost.

Be lucky to have home grows at all next go-round.

The media will say the law was too liberal and that's why it lost, so they'll make the next prop suck way worse.

thanks pro pot NO voters. dicks.

[mofeta]

Originally Posted by paper thorn

OK, first, I have to address this myth.

Seems to be the mainstream mantra.

Minorities have driver's licences just like 'white folks'

so do 18 year olds.

jeesh

Hi paper thorn

Sorry, but you are wrong. Yes most minorities and young people have ID, know where their correct polling station is, etc. Here is a funny video about just that:







But, STATISTICALLY (looking at the wider canvas) the highest proportion of provisional ballots are cast in precincts that lean Democrat, are poor, have high % of minorities (in Arizona mainly Hispanics) and Section 203 areas (the areas where the feds require bilingual ballots in whatever language the people speak there). The lowest number of provisional ballots are cast in precincts that lean Republican, are white, and affluent. This is irrefutable. There is less robust, yet still convincing (to me) data showing that young people cast more provisional ballots than older people.

I know that most folks are used to seeing this information in the context of a liberal Dem making a case for basically letting anyone who shows up at a polling place to vote. (Believe me, that isn't me.) That doesn't make the data incorrect, however.

It also happens to be the case that that same demographic that has higher frequency of provisional ballots is more likely to vote YES on drug law reform than the demographic that casts less provisional ballots. The correlation is less pronounced than with who casts the provisionals, because white, affluent, Dem voters tend to favor drug law reform too.

[mofeta]

Originally Posted by paper thorn

Now to 205

Republicans did campaign against 205. The voters against it on the Rep. side were by peeps who never read word one of the prop.

These are antis and NEVER would have voted FOR legalization.

I'm a Republican and I voted FOR 205, as did all the other Republicans that I know. A couple were hard sales, but I brought them around.

Here's the thing though. This gets surprised looks from all the non 205 voters I've met the last few days.

The reason 205 failed is not because the people who would vote no regardless voted no, but because the pro pot people voted no.

The voter guide that the state sent out had 'FOR and 'AGAINST' arguments. The against arguments you expect are from dickheads like Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery. Full of lies about how it would be the Wild West.

The Republicans were preaching to the choir though, those folks were antis already.

A guy named James Feder? had over half of the arguments AGAINST from a pro pot point of view. He said it's phony legalization and was too restrictive.

The PRO POT guys who led the charge AGAINST 205 were going directly after the YES votes.

That's why 205 lost.

Be lucky to have home grows at all next go-round.

The media will say the law was too liberal and that's why it lost, so they'll make the next prop suck way worse.

thanks pro pot NO voters. dicks.

First of all, technically, it has not failed yet. There are still several hundred thousand votes to be counted. It does look improbable, but still is possible.


I didn't have time to reply to Ralp when he said the same thing you are saying:

Originally Posted by Ralp

Do you want a hard reality, it was approximately 7/8% of the MMJ card holders that were passionate of defeating this 205. That in their sphere of peers that swung 3+ people around them to a no vote.

So 95,000 mmj card holders @ 7% of them influencing them plus 3 others that would have swung 28,000 from the no to the the yea and won.

This is very possible. These voters certainly made up at least some proportion of the NO votes. I was almost one of them. I feel the initiative was terrible, and that a lot (most) of the points that the "pro-legalization, anti 205" people made are correct. Once the counting is complete, we will have a better idea of whether this faction was determinative. If it is really close, then they probably are responsible for killing it. If it is still at a margin like now though, over 80,000 more NO votes, then they didn't matter, it would have died even if they voted YES.


And as for it being "luck" that determines what the next voter ballot initiative in 2018, that isn't the way it works. Citizens work hard to write these initiatives, get them on the ballot and then campaign for them. The smartest ones that work hardest win.

If you really want to have a good recreational marijuana law in AZ, find some of the dicks who you feel shot this one down, shake hands with them and get to work on the 2018 initiative. I am pretty sure that they would like to have a law that was home-grow ONLY, no commercial operations and giant new big-government style regulatory agencies. Just one page, allowing possession of reasonable amounts on the street, allowing the cultivation of a reasonable number of plants at your residence (say 12 or so) and allowing you to keep all that you grow at home. I haven't polled this or anything, but my feeling is that something like that would pass in a heartbeat by a substantial margin.

Something even easier, and still very good, would be an initiative that would be very short, like one paragraph, that amended the medical law by removing the 25 mile limit, and allowing the patient to keep at home all of the weed his 12 plants produced. I feel that this would sail right through to victory. I can imagine a commercial featuring a disabled 'Nam vet that finds profound relief in marijuana explaining to Joe (and Jane) Q. Public how just absolutely insanely high the dispensary prices are. Or a mother with a child that has 50 seizures a day. Slam dunk win.

[waveguide]

it's just a waste of time to say anything, malice sees everything as an opportunity for it's "ingenious manipulations".