Marijuana Will Probably Be Legal in Most of the Country by 2020

[Tudo]

Marijuana Will Probably Be Legal in Most of the Country by 2020

<!-- /#content-header -->—By Kevin Drum
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Today, for the first time ever, Gallup reports that a solid majority of Americans are in favor of legalizing marijuana. I've drawn my own chart of Gallup's data because I think their chart doesn't really give a good sense of just how quickly public opinion on this is changing.
I have a rule of thumb that favorability ratings need to reach about 65 percent before you hit a tipping point where a major social change starts getting codified into law nationwide. There's nothing magic about this threshold. It's just a general sense based on previous issues similar to this. And as you can see, public opinion isn't merely rising on marijuana legalization, it's accelerating. The rate of increase has gone from about 0.5 points per year in the 90s to 1.5 points in the aughts to 4 points so far in the teens. If this keeps up, we'll pass the 65 percent threshold by 2016 or so.
There's a lot of noise in polls like this, and we might see a bit of regression to the mean in the next few years. And Mark Kleiman offers a few other cautionary notes here. So 2016 is hardly a sure thing. But 2020? That seems like a pretty safe bet in most of the country. By coincidence, this was my horseback guess when I wrote about marijuana back in 2009, and it looks like I don't have any good reason to change my mind on that.



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Kevin Drum

Political BloggerKevin Drum is a political blogger for Mother Jones. For more of his stories, click here. RSS | Twitter
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Not such an oldie and oh such a goodie

 

[Crocodile OG]

Not a moment too soon.

I like Americans and the country but their government and the decisions made by it are lets say less than intelligent.

 

[RitualDelFuego]

i havent heard anyone mention this yet, if 28 states in the union carry some form of marijuana decriminalization or quazi legal for medical use laws the Federal Government is automatically forced to decriminalize nationally (even Oklahoma!)

 

[Tonygreen]

Its only a matter of time before the stodgy old farts die off.

 

[igrowone]

i havent heard anyone mention this yet, if 28 states in the union carry some form of marijuana decriminalization or quazi legal for medical use laws the Federal Government is automatically forced to decriminalize nationally (even Oklahoma!)

unfortunately, i don't think this is the case
would be great if it was, would be interested in any links or further info

 

[bigAl25]

Dear Old dip shits in our federal and state governments: Please DIE off as soon as possible, You are the ignorant assholes holding up the movement to legalize in the US. All The people who vote for these same ignorant assholes(Colorado and Washington get a pass on this) you also can die off as soon as possible. I'm a 62 year old retired CPA telling you to Die off as soon as possible because I enjoy cannabis, have enjoyed it for over 46 years and listen to Bob Marley and Peter Tosh preach the gospel of ganja.And if one dumb mutherfucker says weed makes you not ambitious and not successful, I want to personally bitch slap you into oblivion.

 

[m314]

And if one dumb mutherfucker says weed makes you not ambitious and not successful, I want to personally bitch slap you into oblivion.

That seems to be the opinion of our governor here in California.

http://www.mercurynews.com/californ...or-jerry-brown-opposes-legalizing-pot-because

"The world's pretty dangerous, very competitive. I think we need to stay alert, if not 24 hours a day, more than some of the potheads might be able to put together."

I understand why someone with no weed experience would believe the old stereotypes. It's frustrating, though. Of all the top software developers I've worked with, I'd say about half were at least weekend stoners. People who believe the old stereotypes are largely the ones with the power to change the laws, unfortunately.

 

[that smell]

And the majority of these politicians who so strongly oppose marijuana are heavy " social" drinkers. I firmly state that I would rather have a pothead at my side than someone drunk anyday "when the shit hits the fan".

 

[buttbrain]

It'd be nice.. HOWEVER the state I live in even tho SURROUNDED by legal/pro states will be the LAST to do it.. bastids..