Plummeting Marijuana Prices for Growers

[Slip Kid]

I wish I could sell wet branches!! Imagine how many people would be drying in a micro wave or an oven.People are much too impatient to dry it properly, not all but most.I gave away a dry branch the other day to my wifes cousin, against my wishes.He complained that the FREE weed had a seed!

 

[Yes4Prop215]

with all due respect SS, i know a fair bit about farming since my family is involved in viticulture. ive seen firsthand the amount of investment and recurring labor costs involved with large scale farming. i have no doubt that you could produce cannabis for cheaper than me, but we should meet somewhere in the middle because as any grower/businessman knows that estimated costs can easily double when operating large scale grows....im sure someone could find shortcuts around some of the calculations and save a few dollars growing herb, but theres a certain point where less investment = less quality.

also we have only a skeleton of an idea of what exact regulations there will be in a future market...so to proclaim you are going to cheat out the sin tax on an industry that will undoubtedly be one of the most heavily regulated and heavily tax is a stretch IMO, ask the several colorado MMCs that are facing federal distribution chargers for trying to sidestep around the guidelines....yes im sure there will be communes producing very cheap herb up north and selling tax free to whoever comes, thats a cool idea and im not doubting it will be done... but im talking about an actual legitimate market, which differs from your idea of people coming onsite to the farm to pick their plants, of which i doubt would be more than 15% of total market share, i mean how many people drive up north to buy fruit and nuts from the roadside stands compared to who buys at market? like i said, sure some people would love your model and drive up to the christmas tree farm, but the majority of customers in urban areas 3-4 hours away from the farms wont, they want to walk into a storefront in their hometown and purchase their herb dried, cured, and trimmed in a cool marketable package and be on their way.

in most agriculture its rarely seed to sale, its independant growers and mega-farms who focus simply on growing and then sell to distributors wholesale, who then process and add their markup. prices of grapes/nuts etc are cheap at the wholesale level and almost damn near break even sometimes if the weather or a harvest doesnt cooperate, like i said, 50 acres of grapes, 150k to grow them, 200k gross revenue on a good season. yes we could spend another million dollars and build out our own processing, winery, bottling, etc but its a big risk that many wont take..

anyways its fine to disagree and speculate about a future market without insulting eachother, and il let your experience do the talking without needing to belittle my mediocre knowledge about large scale farming, im mostly talking to people who bash on commercial growers in general for not giving our herbs away for next to nothing just for the peace and love of it....not fellow growers in the agricultural industry who have their master plans, its fun to bounce ideas off eachother and ive learned some interesting views from your comments.

 

[stasis]

Great discussion. On the cutting edge, we get to see, and be a part of a long-anticipated Societal Change... Cheers...

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

CHEAP WEED?

CHEAP WEED?

with all due respect SS, i know a fair bit about farming since my family is involved in viticulture. ive seen firsthand the amount of investment and recurring labor costs involved with large scale farming. i have no doubt that you could produce cannabis for cheaper than me, but we should meet somewhere in the middle because as any grower/businessman knows that estimated costs can easily double when operating large scale grows....im sure someone could find shortcuts around some of the calculations and save a few dollars growing herb, but theres a certain point where less investment = less quality.

also we have only a skeleton of an idea of what exact regulations there will be in a future market...so to proclaim you are going to cheat out the sin tax on an industry that will undoubtedly be one of the most heavily regulated and heavily tax is a stretch IMO, ask the several colorado MMCs that are facing federal distribution chargers for trying to sidestep around the guidelines....yes im sure there will be communes producing very cheap herb up north and selling tax free to whoever comes, thats a cool idea and im not doubting it will be done... but im talking about an actual legitimate market, which differs from your idea of people coming onsite to the farm to pick their plants, of which i doubt would be more than 15% of total market share, i mean how many people drive up north to buy fruit and nuts from the roadside stands compared to who buys at market? like i said, sure some people would love your model and drive up to the christmas tree farm, but the majority of customers in urban areas 3-4 hours away from the farms wont, they want to walk into a storefront in their hometown and purchase their herb dried, cured, and trimmed in a cool marketable package and be on their way.

I SAID TO FIND A WAY AROUND THE SIN TAX, NOT TO CHEAT IT, FOR EXAMPLE WILL CLONES BE TAXED THAT ARE VEG? WILL SEEDS BE TAXED? CAN YOU SELL A SEEDED BRANCH FOR ITS SEED CONTENT AND NOT PAY THE SIN TAX? WILL LIVING CLONES 1/2 FLOWERED BE TAXED THE SAME AS DRY MATURE PRODUCT? WILL MANICURED AND UN-MANICURED BE TAXED THE SAME? AND BY THE WAY YOU ARE NOT REFERRING TO A LEGITIMATE MARKET, AS LONG AS THE FED'S SAY IT IS ILLEGAL THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT TO YOUR "LEGITIMATE" MARKET....
AS FOR WHO WILL BUY, ANYONE THAT WANTS TO BUY KILO PLANTS FOR $100 AND DRY AND MAINICURE THEM THEIR SELVES, OR THEY CAN BUY IT FROM AN INDOOR GROWER FOR $2,000 A POUND, ALREADY MANICURED, GEE I WONDER WHO WOULD DO THAT?


in most agriculture its rarely seed to sale, its independant growers and mega-farms who focus simply on growing and then sell to distributors wholesale, who then process and add their markup. prices of grapes/nuts etc are cheap at the wholesale level and almost damn near break even sometimes if the weather or a harvest doesnt cooperate, like i said, 50 acres of grapes, 150k to grow them, 200k gross revenue on a good season. yes we could spend another million dollars and build out our own processing, winery, bottling, etc but its a big risk that many wont take..

IT IS NOT THE SAME COSTS NOT EVEN CLOSE, CANNABIS IS WAY CHEAPER TO GROW THEN GRAPES, WHEN YOU ELIMINATE ALL THE HARVESTING, DRYING, AND MANICURING, YOU SHOULD KNOW.

anyways its fine to disagree and speculate about a future market without insulting eachother, and il let your experience do the talking without needing to belittle my mediocre knowledge about large scale farming, im mostly talking to people who bash on commercial growers in general for not giving our herbs away for next to nothing just for the peace and love of it....not fellow growers in the agricultural industry who have their master plans, its fun to bounce ideas off eachother and ive learned some interesting views from your comments.

NO PROBLEM, I JUST WANT PEOPLE TO THINK OUT OF THE BOX, CANNABIS HAS BEEN GROWN FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS IN THE GROUND UNDER THE SUN, GIVEN A DECENT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CANNABIS DOES NOT REQUIRE ALL OF THE COSTS INVOLVED WITH UNDER LIGHT INDOOR GROWS, IT CAN BE DONE FOR .10 A GRAM EASY, IF YOU JUST SELL THE MATURE PLANTS CHRISTMAS TREE STYLE. THE COSTS ARE MORE LIKE $1-$2 PER PLANT, THIS IS NOT SPECULATION IT IS A FACT.

I hope someone tries something like this, cannabis has been pretty high priced, for a long time, I say the more Cannabis the better, because then hash can be made from the plants, if they are cheap...
-SamS

 

[Jericho Mile]

I wish I could sell wet branches!! Imagine how many people would be drying in a micro wave or an oven.People are much too impatient to dry it properly, not all but most.I gave away a dry branch the other day to my wifes cousin, against my wishes.He complained that the FREE weed had a seed!

I'd slap that fucker

 

[CanniDo Cowboy]

You could be right for indoor grown but I am right for outdoor grown. I am saying you could sell very large plants for .10 a gram.
I am refering to a christmas tree style farm, where the customers come pick there own plants. I have run much larger grows and the labor is not more then a few people can do. You could plant clones or seeds, clones could be made onsite or brought by folks that want specific Cannabis varieites. This is not any harder or more expensive to grow then many other agricultural crops, the expenses are less due to not having to harvest dry or process the plants when done, just open your doors and they will come...
I am presuming that many farms would have much of the infrastructure needed already, just switch crops. It is not as expensive as you think. If you think it can't be done cheaply what about organic fruit and veggies, what is it a pound? It can be done cheaply you just have no experience doing so.
As for the "sin tax" will that be charged on home frowers that do not sell? Or on contract growers that sell small clones or havested plants not dried or manicured? I bet a clever person could find a legal way around the taxes, are you clever? As for the costs to make large cuttings to transplant out doors, I know people that can easy make 1,000-2,000 clones a day, the clones can be kept in an unheated greenhouse with lights of just a few hours a day to correct photoperiod for veg. This is not rocket science, it is farming. You say others have no idea of the costs involved, but I do, this is not new to me, I do know the expenses involved, both your way and my way, you just have no experience with real farming, so you think inside a box. I still say .10 a gram is easy if the customer harvests his own plant and takes it away...
One thing is sure, if I can think of it someone will try it, it is just not that hard, except for the federal laws, but they are going to be changing real fast.
-SamS

Claiming commercial pot growing is the same as regular farming is like saying a duck and a pigeon are similar, because they both can fly. Without going into the bazillion reasons why the 2 are completely different, lets just focus on the number one reason: The marijuana industry as a whole and boiled down, is still: Illegal.

That said, a christmas tree farm-like format would create a potential security/rip-off threat each and every time someone came to "cut his/hers own tree". This isnt Aunt Martha & Uncle Bob bringing their grand children out to experience the true meaning of Christmas. What are you going to do, fingerprint & photo ID each and every visitor? Inevitable scenario: On Monday, 5 folks come out to get a tree, 3 purchase trees, 2 just "look around" but on Friday, all your trees are stolen. Good luck figuring out which of the 5 may be culpable or if it was your underpaid and conspiring employees Fred & Ginger or perhaps your neighbors cousin, twice removed on his mothers side who happened to mention the farm to some guy he met while spending the night in the county lockup for smacking his girlfriend around.

Somehow, the comparison to a Christmas tree farm loses value when growing commercial pot would require perimeter fencing rivaling that which is required at a maximum security prison. And how is Joe Bob, Iowa corn grower extraordinaire, going to explain to his 5th generation farming family: "Other than having put up 10 miles of high dollar electric fencing with a little razor wire at the top (video cameras optional), employ a squad of mobilized 24/7 armed guards, hire a bank of corporate lawyers to fight off the Feds, hey, c'mon family peeps, farming is still farming right?"

The reality is: With the past and even current state of political and legal attitude towards the legal farming of marijuana on a commercial level, comparing it with regular farming and saying any farmer can switch over without missing a spring plant is a happy thought albiet highly unrealsitic...Inside the box or out. CC

 

[oldchuck]

The issue of illegality is obvious and not what Sam's idea is about.

He is talking, I think, from the perspective of how best to grow cannabis as a relatively normal cash crop, legal cash crop, in competition with a large number of other people and institutions some of whom have deep resources, agricultural and financial.

Think about tobacco. It is a more difficult crop for a farmer than weed and requires a lot of post harvest processing. It is regulated and taxed. Big corporations control the industry. So how much is a pack of cigarettes compared to a similar amount of weed?

 

[BushyOldGrower]

Hi Sam, nice to hear from you.

I know a lot of people love outdoor growing there will be a market for highest quality indoor from those who can appreciate and afford it. Right now the price for indoor organic in Cali is about double than good outdoor.

I don't know if I would sell out my company unless that was the only way to survive but guys like Sam and me might still be able to figure out a way to make a living. Are you worried about legalization Sam?

I worry but assume that we will find a way to continue doing what we love. Working to create better medicine seems a worthy goal to me.

I hope we meet again Sam. Great respect for you sir! Bog

 

[Yes4Prop215]

thanks for the words sam...like i said no animosity or anything, we are all doing the same thing here, speculating on a future legalized economy that we all want to be a part of.

i still feel like grapes and cannabis have many similarities....the main difference is that they are not annual plants so you dont have to pay for new clones/seeds every season, and the final product for grapes gets processed and turned into wine whereas cannabis needs to be dried and trimmed, so in that regards the harvesting of cannabis is actually harder and more expensive than grapes, which are just pulled off the branch and thrown into the blenders almost asap... but there are many similarities in regards to nutrients, pruning, and harvesting...most of it requires hands on labor just like herbs.

also the consumer marketes themselves are similar, from low end to high end, from the marketing and distribution aspect. i like the christmas tree farm model but im just giving you some construction criticism and things to think about. for example marijuana tourism would be big, but who wants to go up and have to harvest and trim their own plant, especially when it takes 2 weeks to dry/cure and when im going back home in 4 days. you would have to ship them their plant back home. also vineyard touring is big, but no body is going into the vineyards and plucking their own grapes and stomping them in a barrel and making their own wine, samples are already ready for the consumer on the spot and dried samples to take home...IMO the only people who would pay a cheaper price for an unprocessed plant would be locals from the surrounding areas and maybe a few people from the urban areas who wont mind having a large wet messy plant in the backseat of their car.

and yes who knows exactly what they will tax, but looking to CA med market and CO legal market, seeds and clones get taxed at the normal rates. and i am speculating about both a legal market by state standards within CA, AND a federally legalized market....once it goes legal in the state, infastructure and business model should be setup to eventaully go federally legal.

 

[CanniDo Cowboy]

" and i am speculating about both a legal market by state standards within CA, AND a federally legalized market....once it goes legal in the state, infastructure and business model should be setup to eventaully go federally legal.

First, according to P215 voters, it's already legal in the state of Ca. At least it was supposed to be. The reason it is mostly NOT is obviously because of the Fed's stance and more important, their heavy-handed influence. And as we all know from the many years of strife over this business, it will never be completely legal until the Feds relent. And that wont happen until they have all their med-ducks in a row which is to say, have the ability to control the revenue in all aspects including taxation. And not from us, the little guys but from the big dogs waiting to be unleashed.

Yes, when the Feds drop the green flag, you can bet yer boots that the 'model" that comes at that time is not going to be designed for the little guy. Big pharma, big tobacco and even the boys down on Wall St with a little back room help from the Feds will swoop down on the MJ business like a butcher carvin up a helpless cash cow. Most of us wont know what hit us and will be fortunate if left alone just to grow private stash. The state of Cali along with the rest, will merely be the go-between, taking their cut as puppet overseers. Hell, didnt we learn anything from prohibition...? You dont see any small time guys making whiskey these days...Not being a pessimist, just realistic...CC

 

[BC_Bud]

The issue of illegality is obvious and not what Sam's idea is about.

He is talking, I think, from the perspective of how best to grow cannabis as a relatively normal cash crop, legal cash crop, in competition with a large number of other people and institutions some of whom have deep resources, agricultural and financial.

Think about tobacco. It is a more difficult crop for a farmer than weed and requires a lot of post harvest processing. It is regulated and taxed. Big corporations control the industry. So how much is a pack of cigarettes compared to a similar amount of weed?

I have thought about the similarity of these two industries (tobacco and mj).

FYI, here in Brazil tobacco is grown by family-run farms. We are the 2nd biggest producer worldwide.

Big corps buy the dried tobacco leaves but production is almost entirely done by families / small farmers as an extra source of income.

In the 2011/12 harvest tobacco production provided extra income to about 186 thousand farmer families, almost entirely in the south of the country.

If MJ were legal, I bet outdoor growing would provide extra income to at least double this number of families.

A pack of Marlboro reds here costs about US$ 2.50, which can buy you around 1-5g of herbs depending on the quality and connection. Herbs down here cost as low as 15 dollars a kilo !!! at the production zone in Paraguay. Probably 100 bucks max for a kilo of the best sativa at the source. Now cross the border into Brazil and add 18h car drive (Sao Paulo) = 1000% markup. 24h car drive (Rio) = 1500% markup.

If it were a legalized and regulated market...

 

[Ga farmer]

You dont see any small time guys making whiskey these days...Not being a pessimist, just realistic...CC

Around here this statement doesn't apply. Local breweries and micro brews are all the rage. Their sales out pace national liquor/beer sales nearly three to one. I used to work for the largest beer, wine, spirits distributor in the southeast US and national brands collect dust while the little guys stuff flies off the shelf. Hopefully the same scenario would take place with cannabis.

 

[TripleDraw27]

Prices still holding up, 3200 - 2800. Been same for two years. Keeping growing hay folks

 

[BushyOldGrower]

I don't drink Bud because it's crap...

I buy expnsive cigars and drink good beer but it's only about twice as expensive as crap.

The part that interested me was the what people will buy and the race to the bottom if legalized. The answer is simple.

Pass the law so that no single indoor grow can be more than ten lights. Issue grower permits and then the growers form a union to get fair pay.

The govt will never allow pot to be legal and cheap because they use high prices to keep consumption low especially for underage people.

What bugs me is even wanting to limit consumption even for teens. So they think they will become lifelong potheads? That's what happened to me but WTF?

I am not brain damaged and I started at age 14. I was a nutty kid before that anyway.

You know it's coming but whatever they do will suck. Somebody should figure all this out because we need all those jobs and the people who produce the weed should get most of the money. After all I do most of the work and then someone else just sells it then they want as much? That's a lot of profit and all the farmers get screwed.

How about returning to local growing and paying farmers for the work they do? The farmers day is long and it starts early but I won't be milking the cows...I'll be watering my giant bushes and hoping for just enough to pay my bills. I don't need a BMW. Bog

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

Not only am I not worried about legalization, I look forward to it.
I think that anyone that is willing to realize that outdoor Cannabis, or greenhouse grown will be the furure, is ahead of the game. Who will pay indoor prices when they have a choice of outdoor or greenhouse grown for a fraction of the cost? I know that badly grown outdoor or poorly grown greenhouse can be not as good as indoor, but I can assure you that if the outdoor environment is suited for your variety you can produce the very highest quality outdoors, the same with a greenhouse, if done correctly it is as good or better then any indoor...
I am sure we meet angin, it is a small world.
-SamS

Hi Sam, nice to hear from you.

I know a lot of people love outdoor growing there will be a market for highest quality indoor from those who can appreciate and afford it. Right now the price for indoor organic in Cali is about double than good outdoor.

I don't know if I would sell out my company unless that was the only way to survive but guys like Sam and me might still be able to figure out a way to make a living. Are you worried about legalization Sam?

I worry but assume that we will find a way to continue doing what we love. Working to create better medicine seems a worthy goal to me.

I hope we meet again Sam. Great respect for you sir! Bog

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

I want Cannabis normalized,
If that means big biz will be involved, so be it.
Lets be honest, do you buy your food from big biz? What about clothing? What about autos, gas, medicine, alcohol, most of the consumables are supplied by big biz, so if you want Cannabis normalized, this is how it will be. You can still grow your own if you want to indoors at a ridiculous high price, or grow it outdoors at a cheaper price or buy it from SAM'S pick your own Cannabis Farm, for $100 a plant? And then dry and manicure at home.
The market will decide.
Oh and to the guy that was worried about security, it is about the same as a christmas tree farm, you need security but when was the last time you heard of thieves clear cutting a christmas tree farm? The values are similar at harvest, because trees take years to grow, I am sure it has happened, but you would need a lot of transport to haul away 100,000 christmas trees or Cannabis plants. Get a fence and some dogs for security.
-SamS

" and i am speculating about both a legal market by state standards within CA, AND a federally legalized market....once it goes legal in the state, infastructure and business model should be setup to eventaully go federally legal.

First, according to P215 voters, it's already legal in the state of Ca. At least it was supposed to be. The reason it is mostly NOT is obviously because of the Fed's stance and more important, their heavy-handed influence. And as we all know from the many years of strife over this business, it will never be completely legal until the Feds relent. And that wont happen until they have all their med-ducks in a row which is to say, have the ability to control the revenue in all aspects including taxation. And not from us, the little guys but from the big dogs waiting to be unleashed.

Yes, when the Feds drop the green flag, you can bet yer boots that the 'model" that comes at that time is not going to be designed for the little guy. Big pharma, big tobacco and even the boys down on Wall St with a little back room help from the Feds will swoop down on the MJ business like a butcher carvin up a helpless cash cow. Most of us wont know what hit us and will be fortunate if left alone just to grow private stash. The state of Cali along with the rest, will merely be the go-between, taking their cut as puppet overseers. Hell, didnt we learn anything from prohibition...? You dont see any small time guys making whiskey these days...Not being a pessimist, just realistic...CC

Actually there are thousands of small breweries and wine makers, the same with tobacco most is grown by small farmers, I bet it will be the same with Cannabis. I just think that they will not grow indoors under lights, I mean what other legal major crop is grown under lights, any?

-SamS

 

[mexcurandero420]

Actually there are thousands of small breweries and wine makers, the same with tobacco most is grown by small farmers, I bet it will be the same with Cannabis. I just think that they will not grow indoors under lights, I mean what other legal major crop is grown under lights, any?

-SamS

Agree with that, but your forget tomatoes, roses other flowers

Keep on growing

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

Most tomatoes are not grown under lights, same with roses and other flowers. A few are.

-SamS

Agree with that, but your forget tomatoes, roses other flowers

Keep on growing

 

[mexcurandero420]

Most tomatoes are not grown under lights, same with roses and other flowers. A few are.

-SamS

Was talking about the big ones

Outdoors is not very practical nowadays

Keep on growing

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

What big ones, I don't understand, I thought in the USA 90% or more of the tomatoes are grown under the sun? And when you speak of quality heirloom varieties it is closer to 99%, why is that?
-SamS

BTW, I knew and worked with Dr. Bocsa for a decade, he was wrong about THC being needed in hemp, he was old school, maybe one of the best hemp breeders, but he got left behind when modern breeding showed he was wrong about this and other ideas he held. Cannabis with zero THC is the same as Cannabis with THC except it does not have THC, maybe the THC synthase is missing or non functional or the CBG synthase, so no THC...

Was talking about the big ones

View Image

View Image

Outdoors is not very practical nowadays

Keep on growing