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DiscoBiscuit

weed fiend
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What caused the financial crisis? The Big Lie goes viral.

Barry Ritholtz
Published: November 5

I have a fairly simple approach to investing: Start with data and objective evidence to determine the dominant elements driving the market action right now. Figure out what objective reality is beneath all of the noise. Use that information to try to make intelligent investing decisions.

But then, I’m an investor focused on preserving capital and managing risk. I’m not out to win the next election or drive the debate. For those who are, facts and data matter much less than a narrative that supports their interests.

One group has been especially vocal about shaping a new narrative of the credit crisis and economic collapse: those whose bad judgment and failed philosophy helped cause the crisis.
Rather than admit the error of their ways — Repent! — these people are engaged in an active campaign to rewrite history. They are not, of course, exonerated in doing so. And beyond that, they damage the process of repairing what was broken. They muddy the waters when it comes to holding guilty parties responsible.

They prevent measures from being put into place to prevent another crisis.

Here is the surprising takeaway: They are winning. Thanks to the endless repetition of the Big Lie.

A Big Lie is so colossal that no one would believe that someone could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. There are many examples: Claims that Earth is not warming, or that evolution is not the best thesis we have for how humans developed. Those opposed to stimulus spending have gone so far as to claim that the infrastructure of the United States is just fine, Grade A (not D, as the we discussed last month), and needs little repair.

Wall Street has its own version: Its Big Lie is that banks and investment houses are merely victims of the crash. You see, the entire boom and bust was caused by misguided government policies. It was not irresponsible lending or derivative or excess leverage or misguided compensation packages, but rather long-standing housing policies that were at fault.

Indeed, the arguments these folks make fail to withstand even casual scrutiny. But that has not stopped people who should know better from repeating them.

The Big Lie made a surprise appearance Tuesday when New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, responding to a question about Occupy Wall Street, stunned observers by exonerating Wall Street: “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.”

What made his comments so stunning is that he built Bloomberg Data Services on the notion that data are what matter most to investors. The terminals are found on nearly 400,000 trading desks around the world, at a cost of $1,500 a month. (Do the math — that’s over half a billion dollars a month.) Perhaps the fact that Wall Street was the source of his vast wealth biased him. But the key principle of the business that made the mayor a billionaire is that fund managers, economists, researchers and traders should ignore the squishy narrative and, instead, focus on facts. Yet he ignored his own principles to repeat statements he should have known were false.

Why are people trying to rewrite the history of the crisis? Some are simply trying to save face. Interest groups who advocate for deregulation of the finance sector would prefer that deregulation not receive any blame for the crisis.

Some stand to profit from the status quo: Banks present a systemic risk to the economy, and reducing that risk by lowering their leverage and increasing capital requirements also lowers profitability. Others are hired guns, doing the bidding of bosses on Wall Street.

They all suffer cognitive dissonance — the intellectual crisis that occurs when a failed belief system or philosophy is confronted with proof of its implausibility.

And what about those facts? To be clear, no single issue was the cause. Our economy is a complex and intricate system. What caused the crisis? Look:

1 - Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dropped rates to 1 percent — levels not seen for half a century — and kept them there for an unprecedentedly long period. This caused a spiral in anything priced in dollars (i.e., oil, gold) or credit (i.e., housing) or liquidity driven (i.e., stocks).

2 - Low rates meant asset managers could no longer get decent yields from municipal bonds or Treasurys. Instead, they turned to high-yield mortgage-backed securities. Nearly all of them failed to do adequate due diligence before buying them, did not understand these instruments or the risk involved. They violated one of the most important rules of investing: Know what you own.

3 - Fund managers made this error because they relied on the credit ratings agencies — Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. They had placed an AAA rating on these junk securities, claiming they were as safe as U.S. Treasurys.

4 - Derivatives had become a uniquely unregulated financial instrument. They are exempt from all oversight, counter-party disclosure, exchange listing requirements, state insurance supervision and, most important, reserve requirements. This allowed AIG to write $3 trillion in derivatives while reserving precisely zero dollars against future claims.

5 - The Securities and Exchange Commission changed the leverage rules for just five Wall Street banks in 2004. The “Bear Stearns exemption” replaced the 1977 net capitalization rule’s 12-to-1 leverage limit. In its place, it allowed unlimited leverage for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. These banks ramped leverage to 20-, 30-, even 40-to-1. Extreme leverage leaves very little room for error.

6 - Wall Street’s compensation system was skewed toward short-term performance. It gives traders lots of upside and none of the downside. This creates incentives to take excessive risks.

7 - The demand for higher-yielding paper led Wall Street to begin bundling mortgages. The highest yielding were subprime mortgages. This market was dominated by non-bank originators exempt from most regulations. The Fed could have supervised them, but Greenspan did not.

8 - These mortgage originators’ lend-to-sell-to-securitizers model had them holding mortgages for a very short period. This allowed them to get creative with underwriting standards, abdicating traditional lending metrics such as income, credit rating, debt-service history and loan-to-value.

9 - “Innovative” mortgage products were developed to reach more subprime borrowers. These include 2/28 adjustable-rate mortgages, interest-only loans, piggy-bank mortgages (simultaneous underlying mortgage and home-equity lines) and the notorious negative amortization loans (borrower’s indebtedness goes up each month). These mortgages defaulted in vastly disproportionate numbers to traditional 30-year fixed mortgages.

10 - To keep up with these newfangled originators, traditional banks developed automated underwriting systems. The software was gamed by employees paid on loan volume, not quality.

11 - Glass-Steagall legislation, which kept Wall Street and Main Street banks walled off from each other, was repealed in 1998. This allowed FDIC-insured banks, whose deposits were guaranteed by the government, to engage in highly risky business. It also allowed the banks to bulk up, becoming bigger, more complex and unwieldy.

12 - Many states had anti-predatory lending laws on their books (along with lower defaults and foreclosure rates). In 2004, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency federally preempted state laws regulating mortgage credit and national banks. Following this change, national lenders sold increasingly risky loan products in those states. Shortly after, their default and foreclosure rates skyrocketed.

Bloomberg was partially correct: Congress did radically deregulate the financial sector, doing away with many of the protections that had worked for decades. Congress allowed Wall Street to self-regulate, and the Fed the turned a blind eye to bank abuses.

The previous Big Lie — the discredited belief that free markets require no adult supervision — is the reason people have created a new false narrative.

Now it’s time for the Big Truth.

Related content:
More from Post Business
Pearlstein: You bet it’s another bubble
Sloan: The bailout was awful, but it worked
Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He is the author of “Bailout Nation” and runs a finance blog, the Big Picture.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...goes-viral/2011/10/31/gIQAXlSOqM_story_1.html
 

SpasticGramps

Don't Drone Me, Bro!
ICMag Donor
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What's happening to America? America is setting up for hyperinflation. For all those that think that's a tin foil hat conspiracy theory that could never happen here, I pose this question.

Why are the German's dead set against monetizing the Eurozone's debt which would make their crisis go away? It's what we did and look how great things are going over here.

For those that believe that hyperinflation can't happen here just because we are America #1 Fuck Yeah I refer you to history books and implore you to brush up on your economic literacy.

In the meantime here is a German member of the European Central Bank on why monetizing debt is such a bad thing and refuses to do so even as the Eurozone countries meltdown.

ECB's Weidmann Spoils The Party: Says Leveraging EFSF Violation Of EU Treaty, Warns Of Hyperinflation
Trust the Germans in the ECB (those who have not yet resigned that is) in this case Jesn Weidmann, to come in and spoil the party:

- Weidmann, speaking in Berlin, says hyperinflation shows why monetizing debt wrong

- Prohibition on monetary financing an important achievement.

- Euro treaty rightly forbids monetary financing

- Stable prices should be key goal of ECB

- Leveraging EFSF with currency reserves prohibited

- Says monetary analysis may gain importance at ECB

And for all our MMT friends:

"One of the severest forms of monetary policy being roped in for fiscal purposes is monetary financing, in colloquial terms also known as the financing of public debt via the money printing press:” Weidmann

Prohibition of monetary financing in the euro area “is one of the most important achievements in central banking” and "specifically for Germany, it is also a key lesson from the experience of hyperinflation after World War I"
Despite this the ECB has been monetizing some Greek, Portuguese, and now Italian debt in a futile attempt to hold their interest rates down to prevent the contagion from spreading. They are now faced with the same situation we are. Print or die. We are printing. We have chosen to sacrifice our currency to maintain the illusion of solvency for a bit longer.

That's what happening and it won't end well.

EDIT: Link to Bloomberg article
Weidmann: ECB Can’t Print Money for Financing
 
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Rusty420

Member
its not just emerika thats in trouble, whole world owes more money than they can pay back....the interest keeps going up n up...no country apart from Iran, syria and north korea is free of this debt, and they are about to get libya'd...:)
 

lost in a sea

Lifer
Veteran
ahh the great depression before the age of aquarius,,,

only a hand full will make it through and maybe that is for the best,,, fucking apathetic zombies everywhere,,
 

SpasticGramps

Don't Drone Me, Bro!
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As a side note. Currency destruction usually takes a few years. It took the Wiemar Republic 3 years to completely destroy theirs. We have been monetizing hardcore for about 3.

Iran, Russia, and China have said they are working to get oil repriced in a basket of currencies in 9 years. Once oil is no longer price in USD then it's over. So I reckon time line for hyperinflation is 1-9years IMO.
 

PoopyTeaBags

State Liscensed Care Giver/Patient, Assistant Trai
Veteran
banks control booms and recessions that simple. They put money into the system create inflation and take it out of circulation or stop lending money to create busts. Theres a globalist agenda here and they are trying to kill multiple currencies to replace them with new ones and even more centralize the "world government".

We are at a critical point people are beginning to wake up and realize that they are slaves. Problem are they are still sheep and will be persuaded into doing exactly what they are standing up against. If we dont STOP centralize banking and kill all the federal reserves around the world and basically change the way money is made and dealt with we will just be in deeper then we ever were and one more step into a globalization of power. Pretty soon itll just be the stoopid .0001 percent that controls it all and poor as shit slaves that will be able to do nothing against the system that will be in place...

1984 was not just a book. Wake up
 

GP73LPC

Strain Collector/Seed Junkie/Landrace Accumulator/
Veteran
ahh the great depression before the age of aquarius,,,

only a hand full will make it through and maybe that is for the best,,, fucking apathetic zombies everywhere,,

i find myself agreeing with most everything you say...

:tiphat:
 

abellguy

Member
Super great thread although some people really need to get there heads out of the sand!

all great posts so far,,,

whats happening in america has been planned for a long time to coincide with this global paradigm shift,,,

certain family dynasties that have owned all the banks and hidden behind monarchies and religions for hundreds of years have been writing/rewriting the history that they want us to have and trying to create their future,,, so many of their puppets have infiltrated america since its inception,,,

america just is not controlled like people think,,, the president has no power, he's a low down freak acting as a conduit for the higher powers,,, so much of what goes on in america is actually decided in israel and in london,, its all backwards..

america was never independant, it is crown property through the illuminati who have stamped their symbols all over everything and every government body in america since their charter to exist and steal the money from americans in 1776,, these lizards were sold the plot of land in DC, named after them,, the knights of columb (the dove),, which is just like london or brussels or berlin/paris/rome etc where these scum officiate and thieve from us through their unfair taxes and usury,, they have consistently degraded the working classes rights and swung the distribution of power and influence fully towards themselves,, they are globalists and feel as happy in texas or new york as they do in london or dubai or their latest sun worshipping city astana in kazakhstan,,, with sub bloodlines running the media, politics and corporations for them, the 13 major ruling families such as the rothschildes,rockerfellers,oppenheimers,warburgs,kissingers (etc) simply concentrate on hiding that they own 80%+ of the world and plotting our demise through a variety of events and circumstances that benefit their agenda,,

its a syndicate basically that predates america,, it seriously hates what america tried to be and it has made america into what the masons call the new egypt,,,, a cabal that is playing chess with us all and are 20 moves ahead,,

people who dont know their past, consign themselves to history...

they now nearly need to sink america like the titanic so there is no super power left in the west to disagree with their plans,,,

oh and they are now using financial terrorism against us,, the general populace,, its world war 4,, its not being played like normal wars, but it will involve the whole world this time..

it could take forever to explain all the ills bred into society that have led to this from their ancient trick of the brewing of poisons such as beer to degrade us to using portals to evil like mtv to sexualise children to breaking down the importance and fabric of the family and the role of parents,, generally corporatising the whole world and ruining the morals of everyone in every country and spending their money on research into death..

"every generation needs a revolution" thomas jefferson....
:rant:

Agreed 100%


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guXirzknYYE (Zietgiest the movie)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z9WVZddH9w (Zeitgiest moving forward the movie)

and for those that like to read a book that changed my life: "Behold a Pale Horse" by William S. Cooper

http://www.hourofthetime.com/ (William S. Cooper's website)


People need to educate yourselves with the esoteric knowledge they don't want you to have. They feel you are fine with cable TV, that you pay for, so that they can tell you are stupid for not buying what they are telling you you need. Do you really think TV is there for the programming content?
 

DiscoBiscuit

weed fiend
Veteran
Lol. TV costs money. What a novel concept to sell over the airwaves. If one feels compelled to keep up with the Jones' they might be hanging with the wrong people.
 

SpasticGramps

Don't Drone Me, Bro!
ICMag Donor
Veteran
What's happening? The Western World is completely bankrupt in more ways than one. America is just on for the ride.

Jefferson County Files Largest Ever Chapter 9 Filing

Update Update: Yep, it's official: JEFFERSON COUNTY COMMISSION VOTES FOR RECORD MUNI BANKRUPTCY, commissioners vote 4 to 1 to screw over JP Morgan

Update: according to an update tweet, "Jeffco bankruptcy: Commissioners are now discussing the motion. They have not voted yet." Things are fluid. Stay tuned.

The bad news for JP Morgan just keep on coming. According to the Tweeter account of Birmingham News, "Jefferson County Commission makes motion to file bankruptcy." We translate this to mean that the "avoided bankruptcy" state has just metamorphosed into simple "bankruptcy" - granted one which will be the largest municipal bankruptcy in history. This means that JP Morgan is now on the Unsecured Creditor Committee of the two biggest bankruptcies of 2011: MF Global and JeffCo as well. And so the second major domino after Harrisburg is down. Many more coming.

More as we see it.
 

medman225

Member
i wouldnt be surprised to see another civil war happen(which would most likely end rather quickly regardless of whos right and whos wrong when martial law is called... the price we pay for having a modernized technology based army who can do virtually ANYTHING, and will wen martial law is called)
i jst hope we dont go socialist... seriously socialism may be a great idea in a perfect world where noone has lack of motivation and everyone does their fair share, but America has dug themselves some unspeakable debt... and we will never get out of creating unbelievable debt numbers year in and year out that could never realistically be paid off(not that our debt isnt already virtually impossible to pay back... but we still need to stop).... we need to limit big gov and get rid of everything we dont truly need... and give more power back to the states...

but if i believe the conspiracy theorists(and not so crazy eople as u wuld think) we are all fucked and will continue to get fucked by the rich no matter wat... ive heard the making of the social security number was to code every american into a sellable product... that we can get loans on, and apparently the large 5 rich families are inextricably linked, but some theorist make some good arguments for America being a scam these days, and that if ur smart ull remove urself from the US and get the fuck outta here.

lol besides i gotta go somewhere else anyway where i can have my acre marijuana field for reintroducing cannabis back to its sweets spots...

hope that makes sense im quite high
 
C

CLOWD11

America is fucked and it fucked itself. Bank regulation played a pivotal role in allowing debt to be handed out like lollies while never satisfied yanks lapped it up in apparent good times.
Too many people living way beyond their means has finaly caught up. Time to pay off debt at the cost of growth.
America is receding fast in terms of global wealth, too many wars to support and not enough revenue to support the wars. Bleeding bigtime.
Kick out obama for bushs' war mongering, sure that will fix everything..not
Hope your all preparing for the OWG that will rise up from out of the impending global collapse that started with your banking system.
 

Weird

3rd-Eye Jedi
Veteran
we fed our spirit of capitalism at a greater rate than we fed our spirit of democracy
 
U

Ultra Current

Wow what a great thread! I'm really starting to hate this country. I feel like I'm starting to sound like people I hated in the past sounding like some conspiracy stories and such. I have not linked in to the matrix and never will. It seems like people don't have their own views anymore and the tv gives them their views for them. They want you to think that their are choices with our system but it all just looks like the same bullshit. Lobbying should be illegal. The fact that lobbying exists shows that big money is really running things. Have you looked at the ingredients that are in your products and food lately? They are poisoning you left and right. Farm raised fish, lotions, food and so many others. Most people in this country don't even have the time to think about shit like this because they are just trying to pay the bills and get buy. The point is that you are nothing but a consumer for the corporate money machine. They want you to be in debt and spend more than you have. You are just a slave to the system. So many smoke and mirrors. I have so much more to say but this subject is making me very angry. I need to smoke.
 
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