Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

So.....about those "details" for the Nov3 European continent banking bailout and promise to save the world financial system.

I can hear Merkel and Sarkozy right now. "It's those damn pesky politically viable details. We need better rhetoric." Let's see them stick save this bitch this time.

The fact that they put a time stamp on saving the world without a plan is pretty amazing to me.

Full report from UBS Bank in link.

UBS Kills Latest European Bailout Proposal: "Why A 50% Haircut On Greek Debt Will Not Work"

UBS' Stephane Deo has rapidly become of one of the most vocal, and luckily most erudite, critics of the veritable rumor-a-palooza that Europe has become: a continent that is now desperately throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes it will stick and generate another intraday EURUSD short covering squeeze to perpetuate the illusion that Europe is viable for at least one more day. His note today effectively puts an end to the most current approach whereby Greece will see a 50% haircut on its debt (the 21% haircut proposal from July 21 is now dead and buried as we had suggested back then). With that, he forces Europe back to the drawing table to come up with a plan that is endorsed by the market, with just 9 short days until the Eurogroup Summit on October 23 at which point kicking the can into the future will no longer be tolerated and the market will finally judge Europe not for promises, rumors, lies, innuendo and hyperbole, not necessarily in that order, but on actual decisions and policies. Alas, if the 50% haircut idea, which is now proposed by Germany (in diametrical contrast to a month ago), and staunchly opposed by France whose banks, unlike Deutsche Bank, have not been able to dispose of legacy exposure, is killed before it is even implemented, look for a spike in panic in Europe which will now have to redo everything from scratch.

 

[Dudesome]

ok the Occupy Together movement is spreading

This is what I don't get:
Why the fuck are they saying it's a war against Capitalism?
Capitalism is just a tool that the NWO/Tops/Dictators/Tyrany is using.

Why would you go agains a TOOL? Go against the user.

 

[Hydrosun]

ok the Occupy Together movement is spreading

This is what I don't get:
Why the fuck are they saying it's a war against Capitalism?
Capitalism is just a tool that the NWO/Tops/Dictators/Tyrany is using.

Why would you go agains a TOOL? Go against the user.

The controlled economies / money printing countries of the world are in no way practicing capitalism.

By trying to identify the protest as being about capitalism the media / government propagandists are trying to push the country further towards fascism. And the sheeple are so easy to lead.

 

[Dudesome]

The controlled economies / money printing countries of the world are in no way practicing capitalism.

By trying to identify the protest as being about capitalism the media / government propagandists are trying to push the country further towards fascism. And the sheeple are so easy to lead.

Sounds right to the spot, bro! That's an aproach they would take.

Yes I will never call Capitalism that which is a pure Bureaucratism.
I am talking about
amount of Derivatives VS the amount of actual commodity that should back those derivatives. I am talking about fractional reserve lending.
Pure Bureacratism.

Shit... why didn't I get this before.... that's what they are doing. They are using that paper against us.
Not just the Currency. The mortgage contracts too. The commodity derivatives. The fucking court desicion and even your personal record that keeps you from achieving things in society!


And this really makes you think twice about the benefits of the whole occupy movement.

First: They are practically turning police into millitary police
Second: They are making the wrong asumptions and are putting the wrong ideas out there.
Third: They aren't making it to the mainsteam media enough. Neither are they helping anyhow.
4th: They have no idea what to do.

All this makes me reconsider my approach towards the whole movement.

Herd is just doing the moooo mooo without any plan. The moo moo is worsening things only.

 

[Nondual]

Yeah there goes my theory. Did not make an entry and glad I waited for the open today. The up volume over the past little bit not very exciting and starting to get into overbought territory. I don't see this as any kind of breakout.

 

[Dudesome]

Yeah there goes my theory. Did not make an entry and glad I waited for the open today. The up volume over the past little bit not very exciting and starting to get into overbought territory. I don't see this as any kind of breakout.

doesn't look like a breakout to me just yet either, mate.

I still say target 2430

Actually the trend is pretty steady. looks like the range is stetching. Id say shorting right now looks pretty decent.

 

[Nondual]

A little update...

The Nasdaq swelled 1.8%, the S&P 500 1.7% and the Dow Jones industrial average 1.5%. Winners beat losers by almost 5-to-1 on the NYSE and by almost 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

But volume faded 3% on the Nasdaq and 14% on the NYSE, according to preliminary data. Nasdaq's volume hasn't hit even an average pace since Oct. 5, while the S&P 500's trading has been below par since Oct. 4.

As for the second part considering the crazy volume days during the recent 'correction' and wild swings I'm not surprised trading volume has been below par.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I'd be wary going short into earnings season. Decent earnings could send the HFT's skyward IMO.

The Europe can has been kicked till after earnings season.

Charting Nine Days Of Short Squeezes And Vapor Volume

Still unclear on what drove the policy vehicle known as the stock market straight up, which for some reason speculators still participate in despite relentless warnings that it is broken, manipulated, etc, for nine consecutive days, following the release of the FT rumor of a bank recapitalization on October 4, since refuted? Simple: look at the chart below. The Green is the Russell 3000, while the Red is the Goldman "highest short interest index." Beginning with September 4, and continuing through today, every time the market appeared poised to drop, market makers would mysteriously squeeze shorts, with the Red line consistently leading the overall market (Green). Said otherwise: shorts panic -> weak hands cover -> market follows. Naturally, for this to work, volume has to be well below average, which was indeed the case - the volume has been abysmally low for the duration of the entire melt up which means the second there are no incremental weak hands to short, and the movement flips, most likely on the fully priced in deus ex bail out of Europe which will not happen next week or ever, massive volume will return, and the market will do what it always does in such situations: soar inversely. Until then, and as always, it is best to play in other, less manipulated venues - buy some CDS, arbitrage some shiny rocks, blow some money on Blackjack, just stay away from the frontrunning algos whose only purpose is to sniff out weak shorts and sell stops. There is no market: we would say it is a casino, if only it was even 10% as fun.
Short summary:

ES Volume:

 

[SpasticGramps]

Jim Rogers Sees Devastating Stagflation, Would Quit If He Was A Bond Portfolio Manager

Now that we already had one notorious bond bear in the house with a late afternoon appearance by Bill Gross, who in a very polite way, apologized and said that while he may have been wrong in the short-term, he will be proven correct eventually, it is now time for the second uber-bond bear to make himself heard. In a CNBC interview with Jim Rogers, the former Quantum Fund co-founder, who back in July said he was had shorted US Treasurys, exhibited absolutely no remorse, instead reiterated a 100% conviction in his "bond short" call: "Rogers said when there is a bubble, such as the one being experienced in U.S. Treasurys, prices could go up for long periods of time. Bill Gross of Pimco, who also had a bearish view on Treasurys, threw in the towel earlier this year. But Rogers is sticking to his opinion that Treasurys will eventually fall. "Bernanke is obviously backing the market again and the Federal Reserve has more money than most of us - so they can drive interest rates down again. As I say they are making the bubble worse." The reality is that while Bill Gross has to satisfy LPs with monthly and quarterly performance statements (preferably showing a + sign instead of a -), the retired and independently wealthy Rogers has the luxury of time. And hence the core paradox at the heart of modern capital market trading: most traders who trade with other people's money end up following the crowd no matter how wrong the crowd is, as any substantial deviation from the benchmark will lead to a loss of capital (see Michael Burry) even if in the longer-term the thesis is proven not only right, but massively right. Alas, this means most have ultra-short term horizons, which works perfectly to Bernanke's advantage as he keeps on making event horizons shorter and shorter, in the process killing off any bond bears which unlike Rogers can afford to wait, and wait, and wait.

"Bernanke is obviously backing the market again and the Federal Reserve has more money than most of us - so they can drive interest rates down again. As I say they are making the bubble worse."

For now though Rogers is playing it safe and avoiding bonds. Instead, he's betting on stagflation by being long commodities and currencies (such as the Chinese yuan) and shorting stocks.

 

[The iD]

tea leaves. my take: 1237S&P into G20 unresolution to retracement test of 1191, to a final push to 1265/1275 where reality will proceed to rip 30%+ from inflated 18-24x multiples as the bears claw a digit from the indices. the fact that the deck chairs are really comfortable and have nifty koolaid cup holders says nothing about the integrity of the vessel and everything about the occupants w/i the RMS Ponzi. every day that the bowels arent released into the spinning blades is bullish, as the ultimate outcome is either a massive restructuring of the current system or replacement w/ a new system. wait till Greece files. then look towards the boot and don Quijote. hell, wtf is cali gonna do? or alabama? QE3 will just be another bloodletting on our journey to global insolvency. simply put, stealing from the future to prop up the present. false constructs built in the human mind. depressing.

letting a minimum of my short term calls(oct) from mid week run thru the weekend, we are appearing pretty toppy, ready to add some nov put positions and strangle this bitch, then keep rolling & flipping short term call profits up & into my long dated put position. filling in jan'12 and beyond now, nov/dec spreads are adequate. still nov20 target but they bought themselves a month on the tail end into jan.

China is already 1/2 way done w/ the xmas toy supply. everyone already knows the "popular" & big sellers, and are prepared. apple 4S was planned, iP5 is hitting numerous problems but still 1/2 produced. genius move imo. i will lmao if they manage to release iP5 by xmas, or if they have to scrap some guts and redesign a cloud and wait till summer. ~60days till some real factory layoffs. u.s. should be spared, since they have no factories. dont know how the BRIC can save the world when they also need some saving. either way, the trade wars have begun. to put it lightly; everyone is so fucked. eventually. for now, the weekend.

stay frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

Compression trades like a mofo.

Geaux Tigers!

 

[Nondual]

we are appearing pretty toppy

everyone is so fucked. eventually.

Agree with the first part and guess I was a little early.

As for the second part yes. Not just financial stuff but we're running out of water...

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Mexico ships televisions, cars, sugar and medical equipment to the United States. Soon, it may be sending water north.

Western states are looking south of the border for water to fill drinking glasses, flush toilets and sprinkle lawns, as four major U.S. water districts help plan one of two huge desalination plant proposals in Playas de Rosarito, about 15 miles south of San Diego. Combined, they would produce 150 million gallons a day, enough to supply more than 300,000 homes on both sides of the border.

The plants are one strategy by both countries to wean themselves from the drought-prone Colorado River, which flows 1,450 miles from the Rocky Mountains to the Sea of Cortez. Decades of friction over the Colorado, in fact, are said to be a hurdle to current desalination negotiations.

The proposed plants have also sparked concerns that American water interests looking to Mexico are simply trying to dodge U.S. environmental reviews and legal challenges.

Desalination plants can blight coastal landscapes, sucking in and killing fish eggs and larvae. They require massive amounts of electricity and dump millions of gallons of brine back into the ocean that can, if not properly disposed, also be harmful to fish.

But desalination has helped quench demand in Australia, Saudi Arabia and other countries lacking fresh water.

I read a few years back that around 2025 Cali is estimated to run out of fresh water. I know off topic but more problems than just financial.

 

[SpasticGramps]

So much for this hopium rally we've had over the past week. I guess it's hard to save the world with empty words about making a grand plan to make a plan etc etc.

So Much For Dreams, Hopes And The European Way: Schaeuble, Merkel Warn EU Summit To Be A Dud

Nobody could have foreseen this, nobody, certainly not the vacuum tubes who took the S&P for a ride for nearly 150 points. As Reuters reports, "the euro fell to a session low versus the dollar on Monday after comments from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble saying the EU summit would not present a definitive solution to the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to sell the single currency." No, that's not true, it's impossible. You mean all those hopes... Dashed? "A Bundesbank report saying the German economic outlook had deteriorated further also curbed some of the market optimism that had helped push the euro to a one-month high earlier in the session. The euro hit a session low of $1.3824 before recovering slightly to last trade down 0.3 percent on the day at $1.3840." And since the EURUSD and stocks trade as one... You know the rest.

Q.So what happens when bullshit empty rhetoric meets non-viable political reality?
A. Stock market tanks.

 

[Tripsick]

hell of a ride

 

[Nondual]

hell of a ride

Guess I was a day early...

Stocks sustained sizable losses Monday and closed near session lows, as the Nasdaq snapped a five-day winning streak. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 2.1%, the Nasdaq 2% and the S&P 500 1.9%. Turnover increased across the board, according to early data.

The market appeared to get hit by diminished hopes for a quick resolution to the euro zone's debt crisis. Still, even as the Nasdaq retreated, the tech-heavy index managed to hold above 2600, a level of prior resistance.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Certainly wild. I'm getting bored of this 1125-1220 range though. I reckon Europe will fall on it's face this week and next as far as sustainable solutions go. This should lead us to breaking to the downside.

Or maybe they will announce a grand plan at the last minute, but one that isn't politically or economically feasible. Just saying something to say something and we rally hard only to come crashing down when reality sets in.

Like iD said. Reading tea leaves in the dark.

 

[Dudesome]

Nondual, are you taking the Nasdaq Composite train? Cause it seems to be leaving just like you predicted

 

[Nondual]

Nondual, are you taking the Nasdaq Composite train? Cause it seems to be leaving just like you predicted

Yeah I focus on the NASDAQ and in particular QQQ. We'll see if the drop continues but hard to see upside potential right here.

I mentioned the 2600 level some posts back and that's a fairly key level right here. The distribution today not really heavy and that 50 MA turning up now which should provide some support. First time back down to 2600 and doubt it'll hold as support.

 

[Dudesome]

Yeah I focus on the NASDAQ and in particular QQQ. We'll see if the drop continues but hard to see upside potential right here.

I mentioned the 2600 level some posts back and that's a fairly key level right here. The distribution today not really heavy and that 50 MA turning up now which should provide some support. First time back down to 2600 and doubt it'll hold as support.

yup I doubt it verymuch too. If only I had exess cash to through in right now.... Well gotta be stacking other things instead though
is all good

 

[SpasticGramps]

Moody's may rain on the Euro's parade. If France or Germany get downgraded the ESFS fails. If they continue increase the amount in the ESFS then they will be downgraded. Now that's a negative feedback loop.

Moody's Announces That France's Debt Metrics Have Deteriorated And Are Now The Weakest Of All Aaa-Rated Peers

This is not what Europe needed, 6 days ahead of the G20 ultimatum's expiration for Europe to somehow fix itself, and hours after Deutsche Bank said the rating agencies may go ahead and put France on downgrade review. Just out "Moody's notes that the government's financial strength has weakened, as it has for other euro area sovereigns, because the global financial and economic crisis has led to a deterioration in French government debt metrics -- which are now among the weakest of France's Aaa peers." As for the timing... "Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government's progress in implementing these measures, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial market developments."

Moody's nevertheless continues to deem France's financial strength to be very high, particularly when compared with debt affordability (interest burden in relation to government revenues) which remains comfortable. But very high debt finance-ability in an uncertain financial and economic environment, which is a crucial feature of Aaa governments, rests on investors' confidence in the government's ability and in its willingness to tackle unforeseen challenges. France may face a number of challenges in the coming months -- for example, the possible need to provide additional support to other European sovereigns or to its own banking system, which could give rise to significant new (contingent) liabilities for the government's balance sheet.