Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

1,100pt short squeeze in 4 days. Now that's a healthy market lol.

I figured we would be risk on today after the "Europe is Saved!" conference yesterday.

No volume meltup today on computers going ape shit over empty rhetoric in the headlines.

Slovakia didn't agree to the ESFS expansion today. They vote tomorrow. I have to believe they will be bribed into approving it at the final hour. They say they won't. Maybe their politicians have a conscious. We'll see. If they vote it down then the Euro party will be over.

Merkel and Sarkozy went all in this time stating that the world would be saved in three weeks. I pity the longs when those three weeks are up and there is still no detailed solution or unicorn to save the day. This could all end tomorrow if Slovakia votes down the ESFS.

 

[Dudesome]

Damn! That end of day melt up got me again. Was up a couple thousand on my short positions @ 3:30, only to see half of it evaporate in the last 30 minutes. As it's going up, I am telling myself, "this can't last, has to pull back", but NOOOOOOO, it kept rising right into the close.
I don't know what all the good news is. I guess they are celebrating putting off the collapse one more day. But these short squeezes are so annoying.

We just don't have a free market for trading and technicals to work. This economy is dead

 

[Nondual]

Have not been watching the market as I've been dealing with other things. Big up day on lower volume...not impressive. at this point guessing the next short entry might be when the markets hit their down trending 100 MA. For the NASDAQ that's about 2630 which will coincide with a near term $ resistance/support level.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Damn! That end of day melt up got me again. Was up a couple thousand on my short positions @ 3:30, only to see half of it evaporate in the last 30 minutes. As it's going up, I am telling myself, "this can't last, has to pull back", but NOOOOOOO, it kept rising right into the close.
I don't know what all the good news is. I guess they are celebrating putting off the collapse one more day. But these short squeezes are so annoying.

Same here, its so obvious when the big players step in and start fucking with the market.

I went short before lunch right after the first big red candlestick, s&p, my goal was only 4 points but when it finally got there it was dropping so fast I just let it go and was shooting for 10. At this point I moved my stop up to +1, it fumbled around for a bit then the big boys showed up and shot it way up.

I can't understand how the folks driving this market believe the people from the government are going to save the euro zone by the mere mention of a plan they are going to release in a month. HOPIUM, thats all it is, they are hooked on that shit. Reality will set in soon enough.

 

[SpasticGramps]

China bailed out their banks today too.

Beijing intervenes to help stabilise banks

The Chinese government will boost its stakes in the country’s largest banks, as it attempts to shore up slumping financial stocks and to restore investor confidence.

Central Huijin, the domestic arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, will purchase shares in Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the official Xinhua news agency announced on Monday. Xinhua added that the purchases by Huijin – its first such public intervention since a similar decision at the onset of the financial crisis three years ago – would “support the healthy operations and development of key state-owned financial institutions and stabilise the share prices of state-owned commercial banks”.

It looks like nationalization is going to be model for all of Europe's failed banks. I guess my question is how does a bankrupt country guarantee debts of a bankrupt bank? Such the case particularly in Ireland, Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal.

However, in this bizarreo world of central planning the markets may like bank nationalization because it puts all the bad debts on the backs of the tax payer slaves while sacrificing long term for short term bliss.

I can't see how the EFSF gets expanded into trillions of dollars when they can barely get this measly 400+ billion expansion passed.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Slovakia just voted down the expansion of the EFSF. The ruling coalition then lost the vote of confidence and has collapsed. Prime Minister usually steps down after government coalitions collapse. Congrats to them for standing on principle and common sense at the risk of their political careers.

Looks like a new government led by the Social Democrats will be formed and is expected to pass the expansion of the EFSF.

This was really more of a principle vote. I commend their party leaders for not selling their people all the way out to the bankers, however it looks like there is another group eagerly waiting to vote yes to continue the looting of their citizenry. MSM says a yes vote is expected in a few days. I guess we'll see.

Victory! If not only for one day.

 

[Dudesome]

victory infuckindeed!

 

[SpasticGramps]

I was wondering why China preemptively stepped in to prop up their banking stocks. Everyone knows they fudge numbers just like our Ministry of Truth does. Everyone may not know that the entire China banking system may be valued at around $0.00-$0.44 as their bubble begins to burst. Here comes China in for their hard landing.

Credit Suisse Buries China's Banks

Wonder why China just bailed out its banks, preemptively, on Monday? Here's why. In a report issued by Credit Suisse's Sanjay Jain, the China strategist, who joins such now infamous skeptics as Bank of Countrywide Lynch's David Cui, has revised his base case Non Performing Loan ratio forecast from 4.5%-5.0% to 8.0%-12.0%: a unprecedented doubling in cumulative losses. Why unprecedented? Because as he explains, this could "would work out to 65–100% of banks’ equity." Crickets? Yes, Credit Suisse just singlehandedly said the equity value of the entire Chinese banking system is between 66% and 100% overvalued (with a downside case of $0.00). So for those putting two and two together, on one hand we have the four horsemen of the Chinese apocalypse, already presented visually before by Bank of America, consisting of i) a surge in underground lending, ii) a property downturn, iii) bad bank debt and iv) and "hot money" outflows, and on the other we have the vicious loop of what this means in terms of a central planning reaction. Simply said look for China to scramble to undo all the signals that it had been trying to spark while it was fighting with the Fed-inspired inflation bubble. Only problem is that like in the US and Europe, finding the Goldilocks point where all 4 are in equilibrium will be next to impossible, especially if investors in the country's banks realize the equity they hold is worthless and scramble to get the hell out of Dalian. Then the fears over a parliamentary vote in Slovakia will seem like a pleasant walk in the park.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Harrisburg, PA filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy today too. So it can be done. Cities, municipalities, and counties can file bankruptcy.

Probably call this domino #1 in our municipal house of cards. Now that the precedent has been set I imagine many more will be getting on this train. California in a big way.

 

[headiez247]

Dow turns positive for the year

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Bank stocks led a broad rally on Wall Street that pulled the Dow out of the red for the year, as investors welcomed the latest plan to recapitalize European banks.
"We're continuing to see a shift in investor sentiment," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. "Last week, it seemed like the sky was falling and there was no end in sight. Now, there's a perception that Europe will come up with a TARP-like backstop for European banks."

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said Wednesday that policymakers need to act immediately to resolve the long-running crisis. Barroso also said that banks that do not satisfy capital requirements should be barred from paying out dividends and bonuses.

"We still don't have a concrete plan, but it seems like officials have more of a sense of urgency and are talking about concrete, credible solutions, which is exactly what the market needs," said Hogan.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 185 points, or 1.6%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 23 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 43 points, or 1.7%.

Financial stocks were leading the gains, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) up between 3% and 6%.
Stocks have been climbing since the start of the month as hopes for a solution to Europe's debt crisis continue to mount, and the Dow's healthy gains turned the blue chip index positive for 2011 by a handful of points.
Wednesday's advance was the sixth out the last seven days for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and fifth for the Dow. The three major indexes are up between 9% and 12% since Oct. 3, when stocks hit their lowest levels in more than a year.

Every development overseas is getting investors' front-and-center attention. More than 80% of the experts surveyed by CNNMoney agree that debt problems overseas are the most challenging hurdle for the market.
U.S. stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors spent most of the day waiting for the outcome of Slovakian parliament's vote to overhaul the EFSF. Shortly after U.S. markets closed Tuesday, Slovakia voted the measure down.

Barroso calls for immediate action on debt crisis. The proposed bailout needs to be ratified by all 17 eurozone nations, and Slovakia was the last country to vote. Investors expect that in its second round of voting later this week, with a new government in place, Slovakia will manage to pass the bailout, said Hogan.
Companies: Shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) slid after the aluminum producer reported quarterly income that fell short of analysts' expectations, but the company brought in more revenue than anticipated.
PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500)'s stock rose after the company reported stronger revenue Wednesday on global snack and beverage volume. PepsiCo also saw gains from its the acquisition of Wimm-Bill-Dann, a Russian dairy and juice company.


Overall, S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed almost 13% in the third quarter of 2011, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. Revenue of the companies in the benchmark index are expected to have risen 10%.
Meanwhile, shares of Liz Claiborne (LIZ) surged after the apparel and accessories maker announced it is selling several of its brands for $328 million. J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) is buying the company's namesake Liz Claiborne brand as well as the Monet brand. Liz Claiborne also sold its Dana Buchman brand to Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500).

Shares of Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) moved higher after company executives told an annual meeting for analysts that same-store sales have been positive for the past three months. Sales at the world's largest retailer have been declining for nine straight quarters. Wal-Mart is scheduled to report third-quarter results next month.

Economy: Investors combed through the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, when the central bank launched so-called Operation Twist, a program to shift assets from short-term Treasuries into long-term Treasuries.
The U.S. Senate failed Tuesday to approve President Obama's jobs bill. The 50-49 vote in favor of the measure fell short of the 60 senators needed to advance the $447 billion dollar plan.
The city council of Harrisburg, Pa., voted to file for bankruptcy protection Tuesday night. The state capital of Pennsylvania, with just under 50,000 residents, was facing a possible takeover of its operations by the state government under a receivership.

World markets: European stocks finished with strong gains. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.7%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 2.2%.
Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) jumped 3% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 1%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) slipped 0.4%.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the euro and the British pound, but rose versus the Japanese yen.
Oil for November delivery fell 19 cents to $85.62 a barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery rose $19.60 to $1,680.60 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.21% from 2.16% late Tuesday.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/12/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Harrisburg, PA filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy today too. So it can be done. Cities, municipalities, and counties can file bankruptcy.

Probably call this domino #1 in our municipal house of cards. Now that the precedent has been set I imagine many more will be getting on this train. California in a big way.

I can't seem to find it now, but I read an article earlier saying something to the effect of the bankruptcy filing will relieve them of $300m in bond obligations. Its just from memory so the 300m figure may not be correct, but I think it is.

If this goes through, this precident should shake up the bond market a bit.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I can't seem to find it now, but I read an article earlier saying something to the effect of the bankruptcy filing will relieve them of $300m in bond obligations. Its just from memory so the 300m figure may not be correct, but I think it is.

If this goes through, this precident should shake up the bond market a bit.

According to the article Harrisburg is short $310m on bond obligations. They think filing will let the default on $100m of it.

Everyone is so distracted with Europe that we forget the US has it's own sovereign debt crisis going on right now. Our balance sheet is just as bad as all the other broke jokers in Europe and our muni-market is a mess.

 

[SpasticGramps]

"We still don't have a concrete plan, but it seems like officials have more of a sense of urgency and are talking about concrete, credible solutions, which is exactly what the market needs," said Hogan.

Rallying on hopium again. Nov 3 is D Day for rescuing Europe's banks and saving the world. All the plans I've seen so far are ridiculous rumors and not politically viable. Guess we'll see soon enough.

It's print or die for Europe come Nov 3.

 

[Dudesome]

Lol @ folks trusting cnn cnbc or wsj's judgements.

 

[Nondual]

Since this thread is about Short Term Trades in the Stock Market let's take a look at a chart. The NASDAQ butting against its 100 MA and a key short term price level. I'm biased to the short side for an entry right here. Some individual stocks doing quite well but not feeling that will hold up. This is the first time it's hitting a down trending 100 MA and would be surprised it breaks through. It's also back to the top of that old Rising Wedge.

 

[Dudesome]

I Absolutely agree with you, Nondual.

Also another fundamental factor screams: SHORT that bitch!

The coming deflation of USD that is already on. Banks are holding too much exessive reserve currency.


MACD is looking very promissing too.

 

[Nondual]

I Absolutely agree with you, Nondual.

Also another fundamental factor screams: SHORT that bitch!

The coming deflation of USD that is already on. Banks are holding too much exessive reserve currency.


MACD is looking very promissing too.

I would have liked to see that Wedge formed better the first time around but maybe good enough. Volume off the recent bottom really strong but petering out and some leading stocks hitting resistance levels in the past few days with some negative reversals.

We'll see but I think a pretty decent short entry here. If anything I'd be apt to look at support on the downside at the now upturning 50 MA. A dump here though would turn that MA down again.

 

[SpasticGramps]

So Much For EURUSD Breaking 1.3800: S&P Cuts Spain To AA- From AA

From S&P:

Overview

- Despite signs of resilience in economic performance during 2011, we see heightened risks to Spain's growth prospects due to high unemployment, tighter financial conditions, the still high level of private sector debt, and the likely economic slowdown in Spain's main trading partners.

- The financial profile of the Spanish banking system will, in our opinion, weaken further, with the stock of problematic assets rising further, as highlighted by the recent revision in our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment on Spain to Group 4 from Group 3.

-As a consequence, we are lowering our long-term sovereign credit ratings on Spain to 'AA-' from 'AA'.
-
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative.

EUR/USD correlation to S&P is still pretty strong IMO.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

great video on the european bank situation by max keiser

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d8PCox-kUY

 

[Dudesome]

Do we see Nasdaq Composite breakout? I seriously doubt it. I think once USD Index hits its support @76.1 it should bounce, and so should nasdaq c. plunge. I think targeting 2430 is pretty decent.

Lets see if I'm wrong.