Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[headiez247]

I actually don't think it's that strange. Pot smokers and especially growers are more likely to question and dismiss political (and economic for that matter) dogma as well as have a healthy suspension of authority in general.

Logic and history shows us what is going to happen. Some people cannot get past their old normalcy bias though. The system collapsed in 08. We are just trying to prop it up and pretend everything is ok. The market will always eventually extract it's pound of flesh.

Centrally planned economies and markets always fail. Unfortunately, the entire global system is centrally planned. It will and has failed. The music has stopped. People are starting to realize it and are stopping the dance.

The disgusting part of it to me is that the global economy is dead, but the oligarchs are still stripping the body of it's clothes, shoes, and rummaging through the corps's wallet before the body is finally hauled away.

I think when it's all said and done Americans will blame this crash on Europe, Asia, Bigfoot, Krugman's Aliens, or whatever. Anything to not admit that we are just as insolvent and dysfunctional as the rest of the world.

When do you believe this is going to happen? 20+ pages of your posts and at the end of almost every one of them you drop some line about how its all about to end. The ponzi scheme is about to collapse. The sheep bla bla bla. Literally almost every post. Can I get a month or year estimate as to when this is all going down?

Also are you saying that this collapse you are predicting will be just like 08? I was under in the impression from most people who write about this shit daily that this collapse would be much worse, end with gold being the national currency, etc. If its going to be as bad as 08 that is actually reassuring to me because upper middle-upper class were not that affected by 08.

 

[Groseph]

Its happening right now..

08 was a fake recession.. the FED quickly propped it up with QE/ pumping liquidity into the market. This real economic turmoil is likely to get much much worse.

- -

SpasticGramps,

Can you offer any insight on investing in funds that short US treasuries? (PST or TBT)? I've heard these are being pushed down to artificial levels and it may be a good time to start slowing getting in. Take a look at the charts.. this thing has got to rubberband sometime down the road.

 

[SpasticGramps]

When do you believe this is going to happen? 20+ pages of your posts and at the end of almost every one of them you drop some line about how its all about to end. The ponzi scheme is about to collapse. The sheep bla bla bla. Literally almost every post. Can I get a month or year estimate as to when this is all going down?

The market knows it will be worse than 08. Countries are going to have to default. Possibly monetary systems too. The second part is why I believe it's going to be big frowns around town. I don't have a date for when it's going to play out.

These people say it's starting now.

From PIMCO
El-Erian: World on Eve of Next Financial Crisis

The world is on the eve of the next financial crisis, with sovereign debt its epicenter, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the biggest bond fund.

The European Central Bank hasn’t put in place a “circuit breaker” to contain the region’s debt crisis, El-Erian, who is also Pimco’s co-chief investment officer, said at an event in Washington today.

I recommend watching the clip in the link. This is from perma-bull Barton Biggs. He's calling for a 20% correction. I think it will be worse. It's a crisis of confidence.
Biggs Says World May Be `On Eve' of Financial Crisis

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, managing partner and co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, talks about the plunge in U.S. stocks and his investment strategy. Stocks slumped, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its biggest two-day decline since 2008, amid investors' concern that policy makers are running out of tools to avoid another global economic recession. Biggs speaks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)

I don't know how it's going to shake out. I was pretty sure that we were about to have a second banking crisis and from what a lot of the big boys are saying we are. MSM media recognition starting as of today. Who knows how long a crisis of confidence takes to play out.

It's mess right now. And it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I'm pretty sure of that.

 

[SpasticGramps]

If it's just a deflationary double-dip. For example, Dow 5000. Then upper-middle class should be ok.

I just happen to be the camp that major structural changes are coming. Political and economic.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

I'm Holding My Own in this Volatile Market.Buying Bearish Silver and Gold and let go of BAC ( soon as Buffet jumped on )..Making some gains with Shorting Netflix.I see ISLE,MCS still heading down lower.

Making crazy gains with OCLS this morning and sold at $1.80 and rebought back in at $1.55 and now at $1.70.Suppose to triple in price so I'm taking in .25 cents at a time.

It would be good to test any stock skills in the CnBc millionaire portfolio contest if anyone's up to it.I tried to log on..got nothing.Maybe I'll try again later.I want to trade RRC and see what Gains I can get out of it.

Lets put up some pics of the Bearish Portfolio..the reason why I'm holding MRO,YUM,MVO,LINE is some sort of long term hold can work if hedged right.


Edit :: I was reading that The Dow has never Lost more that 1.25% in September over 10 years.So I took that into consideration...It's down 1.11% for the month..If we hold..October Could be bad.Or good based on the 2nd quarter earnings of some U.s.a. companies.It may hold some gems during that time.

 

[headiez247]

It would be nice if it could just drag its feet for a few more years before crashing.

 

[SpasticGramps]

It would be nice if it could just drag its feet for a few more years before crashing.

Yes, it would be nice and it may. After Europe's banks meltdown there will probably be a TARP 2.0 or whatever. G-20 released a statement saying they would print all the money the market needed to avoid a crash. No one knows how long the bailouts, printing, and can kicking will/can last. What is known is that eventually the markets will lose confidence that central planning can fix the situation and the system will have to reset.

But maybe, just maybe it will become apparent to people that nothing has been solved yet. The structural problems are still there and with each bailout we are only prolonging the inevitable. The longer it's prolonged the more painful the reversion to the mean is going to be. Because if we carry this on to it's inevitable conclusion currency destruction is assured.

Given what people within the status quo are saying I personally believe we are nearing the end of the road for can kicking. Once the markets lose faith it will not return until the structural problems are fixed.

Endspiel: Fidelity Says "It Is Clear Now That The Fed Cannot Bail Equity Markets Out Any More"

At times like these, it can be difficult for investors to know what to do.
We should expect news over the next few weeks to deteriorate further. As we go into the earnings season shortly, there will be more missed forecasts and guidance from companies will be uncertain and gloomy. For investors, valuations will come in to play at some stage. Yields will be well covered because balance sheets are strong.
It is clear now that the Fed cannot bail equity markets out any more and any interest rate cuts by the ECB may not have much of an impact on markets. The solution on the fiscal front will be either Greek default or Germany accepting that it has to fund debt restructuring and so reduce the quantity of debt in Greece. This will be a prototype for other European countries.

Central planning always has an endgame because, over time, capital is completely misallocated and abused. We can only bailout zombie institutions for so long before reality has to be dealt with. The longer we put it off and we've already put it off for a very very long time, the worse the day of reckoning will be.

 

[SpasticGramps]

SpasticGramps,

Can you offer any insight on investing in funds that short US treasuries? (PST or TBT)? I've heard these are being pushed down to artificial levels and it may be a good time to start slowing getting in. Take a look at the charts.. this thing has got to rubberband sometime down the road.

I definitely think the bond market will rubber band sometime soon. I haven't looked into these much I will though.

Honestly, Nondual and iD may know more about them or setting an entry point. I'm not much of a paper guy. I think people will continue to pile into bonds as perceived safety until it's not. When it's determined it's not I don't know that I'd want to be in any paper products even if they are on the perceived right side of the trade. I may look into putting a small chunk of change in them though. Diversification does have it's rewards.

 

[SpasticGramps]

And here is why Europe rallied. I wonder if we will get TARP 2.0 over the weekend? We are definitely in a credit crunch.

Europe eyes Fed-style loan plan: Pimco's El-Erian

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Europe is considering adopting the structure of one of the Federal Reserve's financial crisis-response programs as a way to increase the size of its bailout fund as demanded by other G-20 nations, said Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of the world's largest bond investment fund, Pimco. Europe cannot simply expand the 440 billion-euro EFSF without risking the top AAA credit rating of France, El-Erian said in an interview with MarketWatch. "It would mean that the contingent liabilities that France is underwriting go up enormously. That is why they are hesitant," El-Erian said. The alternative is to "lever it up" which is what the Fed did in designing its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, put in place after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. Under the design of this program, the Treasury Department put up $20 billion in equity that the Fed then "levered" to design a $200 billion program to unfreeze the market for consumer and small business loans.

This may be able to kick the can for another year or so? If you have been watching closely you know that each bailout and intervention the half life of it's effectiveness shortens. The central planners have to "intervene" more and more frequently. This will continue until the half life is 0. Or maybe this is just another rumor to try and kick the can for a few more days. I do know that this is absolute madness and the price for these economic sins will be heavy.

 

[SpasticGramps]

PM's are being liquidated like a mofo to raise capital. Gold and Silver getting absolutely destroyed. Cramer's sheep are slaughtered by the thousands.

Gold/Silver Plunge-fest

Gold down over $100, and Silver down over 15% - someone is liquidating. Rumors vary from very prominent hedge funds to Central European (as in geographically) central banks. Bottom line is, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point and will continue until every last seller is out, and until the margin calls end.
UPDATE: Silver <$30 -17%

Thank you for the dip Ben. You are too predictable.

Tons of rumors flying around today.

IMF is having a meeting. The head said the IMF needs to "be creative" in fixing the market. lol. That's just what we need.

China is calling for a new reserve currency citing the instability of the dollar. That's all good and well, but they have their own problems of "stability" to worry about. There was even an idea of a BRIC bailout of Europe. Maybe Zimbabwe and Papa New Guinea can bailout the US after words. All in all. Madness. Absolute central planning madness.

I think the markets are kind of shell shocked. Just floating around aimlessly at the moment.

 

[Zen Master]

wow is all I can really say.


I held off buying anything, just fyi. Figured one more day and we'll see what happens. I think I'll wait a little longer now.......

 

[Hydrosun]

Again it is the paper ponzi PMs getting liquidated, at the sites for physical the price has gone down a little and the premium over spot is increasing.

I can't get my head around the idea of $4+ per oz premium for silver coins. Just 10 years ago the coins were selling for less than $4, so at that time the premium over spot was pennies. Funny how SLV always sells at a discount to spot.

Does the huge increase in premium over spot represent the manipulation cost of ponzi PMs and the dirivities based on SPOT?

How much gold and silver actually exchange hands on a monthly basis through the CME? SLV has done 68mm+ shares today.

If I could actually buy a coin for the price of a share of SLV, I'd be going nuts today.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Glad you waited. This was the falling knife I was talking about. The big institutions have to liquidate paper PM's to raise capital to deal with the credit crunch. It's a spiral. Weak hands who got into the PM game late are losing their shirts right now.

Paper prices will collapse and present the buying opportunity for the physical people. Like I said, I think the sell off is really just getting started. Someone (ECB, Fed) is going to have to pull a rabbit out of their ass this weekend to stop the bleeding.

Hydro is right though. Fizzy price may not drop that much. Spot price will just increase for fizzy. When faith is lost the price of fizzy (physical) will dislocate from Fraud Street. These are good prices either way.

 

[Nondual]

It would be nice if it could just drag its feet for a few more years before crashing.

The whole thing is an ongoing process and I do believe we're right in the thick of it.

Holy crap was I WAY off on silver and gold! The metals are just melting. Now silver is insanely oversold on a daily chart but on a weekly chart (see below), which I looked at for the first time, it has a long way to go down before oversold on that chart. Gramps seems to have a great handle on the underlying forces driving the drop. That slice thru the 200 MA on the weekly looks absolutely UGLY!

 

[Zen Master]

set... hut HIKE......

yeahhhh good thing I waited. Monday is gonna be quite interesting.

 

[Hydrosun]

So according to Nonduals chart everytime it dips below -100 it bounces huge and hard to over +100. This looks like the easiest bet EVER. SLV is a huge buy here at 30 and will slam up within the next year or the ponzi will fail. Either way it is a win because if the ponzi fails all paper fails if the ponzi succeeds the SLV will hit huge!

 

[Nondual]

So according to Nonduals chart everytime it dips below -100 it bounces huge and hard to over +100. This looks like the easiest bet EVER. SLV is a huge buy here at 30 and will slam up within the next year or the ponzi will fail. Either way it is a win because if the ponzi fails all paper fails if the ponzi succeeds the SLV will hit huge!

Yeah but keep in mind it can still drop significantly from here and maybe a few more weeks before it matches the oversold level in early 2010. If it breaks below $27.50 you might eventually see about $17.50 but very hard to believe it will drop to late 2008 $ levels.

 

[SpasticGramps]

After the slaughter in PM"s the CME pokes it's little head out Friday after hours. Little frontrunning action maybe?

CME hike gold margins 21%, silver 16%, and copper 18%.

 

[Nondual]

After the slaughter in PM"s the CME pokes it's little head out Friday after hours. Little frontrunning action maybe?

CME hike gold margins 21%, silver 16%, and copper 18%.

There goes gold and silver down even more taking out additional speculation/speculators.

 

[Hydrosun]

After the slaughter in PM"s the CME pokes it's little head out Friday after hours. Little frontrunning action maybe?

CME hike gold margins 21%, silver 16%, and copper 18%.

Speaking of front running how sweet is it for those traders surfing the wave and charging huge rips?