Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[bombadil.360]

banking crisis = new business opportunities.

the world keeps on spinning, regardless of the short-sighted fear mongers.



that's the nature of the beast, cannot tame it. no one can. and those who cannot ride it anymore, will be replaced with others who can.

if the current system crashes, a new one will replace it, there's no other way around it. how will you contribute ? there's wealth to be made.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Maybe if you had read the thread you'd know that's what I've been saying.

Buy The Fucking Dip. I think I'm well positioned to acquire assets after the second leg down is complete. I'm posting relevant market data and macro-economic reports. I guess if you only have an elementary understanding of current market conditions it could be perceived as short sided "fear mongering". Believe me I'm excited about the prospect of picking up assets for pennies on the dollar after this moral hazard bailout bonaza runs it's course.

 

[Tripsick]

Maybe if you had read the thread you'd know that's what I've been saying.

Buy The Fucking Dip. I think I'm well positioned to acquire assets after the second leg down is complete. I'm posting relevant market data and macro-economic reports. I guess if you only have an elementary understanding of current market conditions it could be perceived as short sided "fear mongering". Believe me I'm excited about the prospect of picking up assets for pennies on the dollar after this moral hazard bailout bonaza runs it's course.

Me too... im going all in when it happens... Once in a lifetime chance to get ahead.

 

[The iD]

EU managed to kick the can back to Bernank. Greece alllmoooost went splat, Italy shed a notch in her belt. now he twists or he doesnt. again, circa last month. odds now marginally in favor of twisting. greater downside if no action. limited upside w/ vanilla twist, street wants IOER spreads & Put writes as well. street is likely to be disappointed. consensus says 420M$ twist, im predicting 600M$. of course, this actually makes things worse in the long term, and will ultimately necessitate a 1T$+ (1.6T$ = my est.) QE3.

this twist will be faded by mid oct on EU contagion at the soonest, jan at the latest if their stars align. im still predicting nov/dec for QE3. barring a black swan (9.27?10.10?), of course.

im watching RHT tomorrow.

"Time is all that matters [to those w/ little left]." ftfy

NFLX died, SINA crapping. AAPL, CMG, TPX, WFM, SBUX et al shall be soon enough.

im actually bullish equities currently, although i would be very selective if buying shares. there are some great pickups if one is willing to do the research. someone pointed out a good Div buy a page or two ago (something-energy). theyre out there. i personally dont go after divs in a bear market. im looking for potential acquisition targets to fulfill my risk craving. struggling Cos that yield huge pops from takeover bids as large corps spend their cash on real things. kinda like buying the phizz. hmmm...

long AU/AG, commodities, short China, Latin America, EMs. im actually lighter in the market than i have been for a long time. heavy cash. should say something about this market coming from a risk chaser like me. patch it w/ paper mache or let it crash, idc, the schizo routine is getting old. RE purchasing time this winter. ive still got my Armageddon trade on until dec.

anyone w/ money at those EU banks would likely welcome a warning that they could go kaput. -70% lol. they already have withdrawal limits at some of them. i wish i had someone fear mongering at me ~ AIG back in the day, perhaps i wouldnt be so scornful. oh well.

stay frosty,

-iD

 

[Nondual]

if the current system crashes, a new one will replace it, there's no other way around it. how will you contribute ? there's wealth to be made.

I agree.

I still think the NASDAQ is attempting to form a short term (few months long) bearish Rising Wedge. Would be a great way to finish off the head and shoulders top that formed before the market took it's major dump recently.

 

[Nondual]

I think I'm well positioned to acquire assets after the second leg down is complete. I'm posting relevant market data and macro-economic reports. I guess if you only have an elementary understanding of current market conditions it could be perceived as short sided "fear mongering". Believe me I'm excited about the prospect of picking up assets for pennies on the dollar after this moral hazard bailout bonaza runs it's course.

Sounds like you're in a great position to take advantage of things. Very solid approach IMO.

 

[Zen Master]

banking crisis = new business opportunities.

the world keeps on spinning, regardless of the short-sighted fear mongers.

if the current system crashes, a new one will replace it, there's no other way around it. how will you contribute ? there's wealth to be made.

there's a shitload more to lose given the current circumstances.

The sharks are the ones that are going to come out on top after shit hits the fan, and thats precisely what we're talkin' bout here.


you ever heard of the Great Depression?

 

[SpasticGramps]

EU managed to kick the can back to Bernank. Greece alllmoooost went splat, Italy shed a notch in her belt. now he twists or he doesnt.

I think he has to twist. I agree with you that markets will be disappointed. Ditto on QE3 timing minus black swan event. I'm thinking he is going to use some pretty grim language for a central banker.

anyone w/ money at those EU banks would likely welcome a warning that they could go kaput.

Siemens just withdrew $500 million from SocGen and parked it at the ECB. Counter party risk like a mofo.

Sounds like you're in a great position to take advantage of things. Very solid approach IMO.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Welcome to the Danger Zone. Has Act III, as Soros would probably say, begun?

IMF warns world about ‘dangerous’ phase of decline Washington Times
Report implores policymakers to act

The world economy has entered a “dangerous new phase” of declining growth that will require policymakers to take action, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Tuesday.

“Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing,” said in the report, which was released prior to the IMF’s annual meetings this week.

In its “World Economic Outlook,” the IMF steeply downgraded projections it made in June regarding the U.S. economy. The international lending organization had predicted a growth of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent in 2012. In just three months, the forecast has changed to 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.8 percent in 2012.

Even to meet those levels of growth, the U.S. economy would need to expand at a much faster rate in the second half of this year than the 0.7 percent rate of the first six months.

“The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase,” said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist. “The recovery has weakened considerably. Strong policies are needed to improve the outlook and reduce the risks.”

 

[SpasticGramps]

Should be a fun day.

Uncle Ben will announce what central planning market manipulation he is going to use next to further facilitate the destruction of the USD and pretend like he's helping the real economy.

An undisclosed European bank had to access $500 million from the ECB swap line. Further evidence of the liquidity crisis. Europe banks are getting pummeled again.

Housing data is due out. I'm sure it will be shit, but since no one is paying attention to fundamentals it will be ignored and all attention will put on the Keynesian deity Bernanke.

I know I say Europe has a liquidity crisis a lot and they do, but the root of their problem (and the US) is a solvency crisis.

"Game Of Cat And Mouse" - Charting The Progression Of The European Solvency Crisis

"Because it is not a liquidity crisis, it is a solvency crisis." The chart shows nothing new but present the evolution of the European solvency crisis crisply and succinctly for anyone who may be lost in the day to day headline shuffle and confuse the forest for the trees.

Pretty scary looking chart IMO.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Actually existing home sales were up 7.7% per NAR. Not too bad.

European markets seem to be dragging the US down for the moment. Kind of all over the place. Seems that everyone's butt is puckered tight ahead of the FED.

 

[SpasticGramps]

News just gets uglier and uglier for the European banks. Institutional bank run is on like donkey kong. First it was the US money markets withdrawing funds, then various European industrial concerns, then China, now it's insurance companies.

Lloyd’s of London Pulls Euro Bank Deposits Bloomberg

Lloyd’s of London, concerned European governments may be unable to support lenders in a worsening debt crisis, has pulled deposits in some peripheral economies as the European Central Bank provided dollars to one euro-area institution.

“There are a lot of banks who, because of the uncertainty around Europe, the market has stopped using to place deposits with,” Luke Savage, finance director of the world’s oldest insurance market, said today in a phone interview. “If you’re worried the government itself might be at risk, then you’re certainly worried the banks could be taken down with them.”

European banks and their regulators are trying to reassure investors and customers that lenders have enough capital to withstand a default by Greece and slowing economic growth caused by governments’ austerity measures. Siemens AG (SIE), European’s biggest engineering company, withdrew short-term deposits from Societe Generale SA, France’s second-largest bank, in July, a person with knowledge of the matter said yesterday.

Lloyd’s, which holds about a third of its 2.5 billion pounds ($3.9 billion) of central assets in cash, has stopped depositing money with some banks in Europe’s peripheral economies, Savage said, declining to name the countries or institutions.

Europe indices tanked going into the close.

FTSE 100 5,272 -91 -1.71%
CAC 40 2,939 -45 -1.50%
DAX 5,438 -134 -2.40%
FTSE MIB 14,164 -192 -1.34%
IBEX 35 IDX 8,202 -160 -1.92%
GlobalDow 1,794 -17 -0.92%

 

[Zen Master]

so whats up with PM's given all this terrible news?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Looks like they've been hanging out trading within their recent range. I read somewhere that a lot of the selling pressure is coming from investors having to sell PM to raise capital to meet requirements as they have been getting their asses handed to them given the current insane market volatility.

I would expect to see this selling to really take off once Europe's banking crisis goes mainstream and the credit markets lock up again. This is the big dip I'll be looking to buy into. It's after this dip that I expect global money printing to really take off. Eventually as confidence continues to erode in governments, currencies, and old institutions gold/silver will dislocate from the manipulated mess we have right now and find true price discovery.

 

[Nondual]

Just confirms what I think about where we're headed.

Copper ETFs Hit New Low, A Bad Omen For Stocks

By TRANG HO, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 09/20/2011 06:09 PM ET

Copper tumbled to a nine-month low this week on speculation that Europe's sovereign-debt problems will erode demand for the industrial metal despite steady demand from China, the largest consumer.

The red metal's melting raises a warning signal for possible lower stock prices. What's more, a reading on the U.S. housing market came in weaker than expected and the International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic growth forecast Tuesday.
Construction of homes and apartments in August fell 5% from July, to 571,000 — its lowest level in three months, the Commerce Department said. The IMF sees 4% worldwide expansion this year and next, cutting back projections for most regions. Three months ago, it estimated growth of 4.3% for this year and 4.5% in 2012.

The so-called metal with a Ph.D. in economics is used to gauge global activity because it's found in all facets of everyday life, from consumer electronics to building infrastructure. Like most commodities, copper has fallen amid the dollar's newfound strength the past month, owing to safe-haven buying spurred by the European debt crisis.

Barclay's iPath Copper ETN (JJC) has fallen 5.8% so far this week to 48.08 — its lowest price in a year. Since hitting a 52-week high in mid-February, it's been stair-stepping lower, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows.

It has corrected 22% from its 52-week peak and is trading deep below its 200-day moving average. Its shorter-term 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day line, which is very bearish. JJC has crumpled 19% year to date but remains ahead 4% in the past 12 months.

"The commodity is becoming oversold, however. This is an area (at around $49) to watch for signs of stabilization," said Kristin Hetzer, a principal at Royal Palms Capital. "This would be a welcome sign for improving economic prospects worldwide."

JJC could drop to the high 30s/low 40s within the next three to six months, says Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at S&P Capital IQ. "Copper prices have been a strong leading indicator for stocks," he said. "This is very bearish for the overall stock market."

 

[The iD]

i agree. manipulation as well. as the most widely accepted "real" currency the central banks have a vested interest in keeping PM prices depressed to further the illusion of a successful fiat based monetary system. much of PMs are held and traded as paper, so a large portion of the PM trade is a ponzi. biflation isnt making it easy on them either. i too await a decent correction to stock up one last time. theyre still relatively cheap imo, even at this inflated price. especially while im playing w/ this Ike$. only another hour left. the suspense is palpable. stay frosty

-iD

As gold price suppression grows more brazen, maybe Asia will defeat it

 

[Nondual]

The NASDAQ topped out perfectly the past few days at the top trendline of the Rising Wedge. While it was hovering around the 50 MA also this only made it more definitive. Had a hard time believing the market was going to make any more headway. Hard to say where that bottom trendline is on the Wedge but watch around 2,500+. If it breaks below that area convincingly at best it may pause around 2,350+. Definitely bearish action! I'm hoping it bounces off the 2,500+ mark at least a little bit. Another distribution day (down day on higher volume).

Chart hasn't changed really since last time I showed it but forgot the CCI last time and you can see the market was also hitting a bit overbought so 4 convergences (Wedge top, 50 MA and overboughtish, MACD a bit high in the chart and also starting to turn south already AND a $ support/resistance level). Stopped right at it's 20 MA though but doubt that will hold as the selling should carry over into tomorrow.

 

[Nondual]

Running out of bullets...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve will use more than $400 billion to try to drive down long-term interest rates, make home and business loans cheaper and invigorate the economy.

Analysts said the moves would provide only a slight economic benefit.

The action the Fed announced Wednesday is modest compared with previous steps it's taken. The Fed won't expand its $2.9 trillion holdings; it's just rebalancing them.

It will sell $400 billion of its shorter-term Treasurys to buy longer-term Treasurys by June 2012. And it will reinvest principal payments from its mortgage-backed securities, to help keep mortgage rates at super-low levels.

Fed policymakers announced the moves after a two-day meeting. Three members out of 10 dissented from the decision. The Fed acted despite criticism from Republicans who have warned that such steps could ignite inflation.

"The actions the Fed has taken are helpful," says Josh Feinman, global chief economist at DB Advisors. "They will help hold down long-term rates, but they're no panacea."

The Fed left open the possibility of taking further action to try to strengthen the economy.

Stocks dropped immediately after the announcement at 2:15 p.m. and then continued falling. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down about 283 points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note tumbled, and its price rose.

The plan the Fed unveiled Wednesday, dubbed "Operation Twist," resembles a program the Fed used in the early 1960s to "twist" long-term rates lower relative to short-term rates.
In its statement, the Fed noted that the economy is growing slowly, unemployment is high and housing remains in a prolonged slump.

Under its plan, the Fed will extend the average maturity of its holdings from six years to eight years. The Fed has directed the New York Fed to buy Treasurys with remaining maturities of six to 30 years, and to sell an equal amount of securities with maturities of three years or less.

Analysts say the shift in the Fed's portfolio could reduce borrowing costs and perhaps raise stock prices.

There ya go...increase debt levels. Running on borrowed time. At this point with interest rates so low what more can dropping them any more do?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Well today was a bad day to be in the banking industry.

The Bernank spent most of the day rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. He did execute Operation Twist ( I love the name). 2s10s, 30 yield pancaked. Selling short term treasuries and buying long term Treasuries and then using those proceeds and other "holdings" to buy Mortgage Backed Securities. The last part is the "super twist" not done in 1965 (1st Operation Twist). Big difference IMO. Fiddling with a tanking housing market. It's the demand Ben. Can't buy a house if you don't have a job.

Like I said, moving chairs around on the Titanic while everyone is doing the twist.

IEOR remains unchanged. Gold may have had that priced in hence the downward move today. More monetization might have been expected. Thank you Ben. BTFD.

Here is the grim central banker language I was talking about. I love the MSM analogies.

Fed getting more worried about Europe
Commentary: Strains in global markets add to downside risks to U.S.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Add financial turmoil in Europe to the list of the official worries of the Federal Reserve, right behind high unemployment, the depressed housing market, weak consumer spending, and the spike in inflation rates.

The Fed announced Wednesday that it would throw a little more wood on the fire in an attempt to heat up the lukewarm U.S. economy. The Fed said it would try to drive long-term interest rates lower by trading $400 billion in short-term Treasurys for longer-term notes and bonds. Read our full coverage of the Fed’s $400 billion bond swap.

The announcement of the so-called “Operation Twist” was entirely as expected by the markets and the pundits.

What was new in the statement following the Fed’s two-day meeting was a new concern about Europe. For the first time in more than two years, Fed officials specifically mentioned ”strains in global financial markets” as a potential “downside risk” for the U.S. economy.

It’s clear that policy makers are increasingly nervous about what might happen if Greece were to default on its debt. Just last week, the Fed said it would become the lender of last resort to the world, promising to provide all the dollars that European banks can afford.

The last bit says it all. Congrats America we are going to bailout the world with printed money. It's going to end great.

Markets Reaction to all the news?

Dow 11,125 -284 -2.49%

Nasdaq 2,538 -52-2.01%

S&P 500 1,167 -35- 2.94%

GlobalDow 1,774 -37 -2.02%

Gold -27 -1.47%

Oil 84.80 -2.12 -2.44%

I think Mr. Market was expecting a kilo of Columbian cocaine and Ben gave him a couple crack rocks.

 

[SpasticGramps]

#1 crony capitalist Uncle Buffet got nailed today by Moody's. BAC and Wells Fargo are going to explode in his face IMO or he will just keep consolidating and own stake in all of them eventually.

Moody’s downgrades three US banks Financial Times

Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, three of the biggest US banks, over concerns that the US government would be less likely to rescue the lenders if they faced failure.
“Moody’s believes that the government is likely to continue to provide some level of support to systemically important financial institutions. However, it is also more likely now than during the financial crisis to allow a large bank to fail should it become financially troubled, as the risks of contagion become less acute,” the ratings agency wrote on Wednesday.

Bank of America, the largest US bank by assets, had its long-term senior debt cut from A2 to Baa1 and its short-term debt cut from Prime 1 to Prime 2. The downgrades “do not reflect a weakening of the intrinsic credit quality” of the bank, Moody’s said, but warned that the bank continued to face risks from its mortgage holdings.
The short-term rating of Citigroup, the third-biggest US bank, was also cut from Prime 1 to Prime 2, but its long-term rating was held at A3. Moody’s said the downgrade was “not a reflection of Citigroup’s liquidity profile, which strengthened significantly in the past two years and is robust.”
Senior debt at Wells Fargo, the largest US mortgage lender, was downgraded from A1 to A2, but Moody’s affirmed its Prime 1 rating on the bank’s short-term debt.
On Wednesday afternoon in New York trading, BofA’s shares fell 3.3 per cent to $6.68 and Citi’s stock was down 0.1 per cent at $26.90, while Wells Fargo shares shook off an initial fall following the announcement and were up 0.7 per cent to $24.84.
The ratings agency said the outlook on all three banks’ senior ratings remains negative, suggesting that further downgrades were possible. The move followed notice that the banks were placed under review in June.
The negative outlook “reflects the possibility it may further reduce its systemic support assumptions in the future as a consequence of the process set in motion by the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act”, Moody’s said. “The orderly liquidation authority included in Dodd-Frank demonstrates a clear intent to impose losses on bondholders in the event that a systemically important bank ... was nearing failure.”
Moody’s said that because measures to reduce systemic risk, including resolution plans and reforms to the over-the-counter derivatives market, were still pending, it believed it would be “very difficult” for the US government to wind down a failing bank “without a disruption of the marketplace and the broader economy”.