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SpasticGramps

Don't Drone Me, Bro!
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Here's the news out of PIMCO just today gramps and your man Bill Gross
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gross...78.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=


On Thursday March 10, 2011, 3:27 pm EST

The world's largest bond fund has moved out almost entirely from US debt and into that of emerging markets and corporations, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.

Speaking a day after news broke that Pacific Investment Management Company had dumped its Treasurys holdings from its $236.9 billion Total Return fund, the Newport Beach, Calif.-based firm's managing director said it would return once yields grew more attractive.

"It's not a question of dissing the United States or questioning the credit of the United States, but simply a maturity reflection," Gross said. Treasurys are "mispriced relative to the inflationary environment and the growth we see ahead and there are better alternatives in order to capture yield."

Gross primarily based his evaluation on the reduction in yields caused by the Federal Reserve's buying of close to $2 trillion in Treasurys, with more slated before the second leg of the program-often called QE 2-comes to an end.

"When a trillion and a half dollars worth of annualized purchasing power disappears I simply question as to who will buy them and at what yield," he said. "We're suggesting at these yields it might be problematic."

Instead, the firm has moved its money to other debt until the rate structure changes.

"Those would be corporate bonds, those would be a smattering of high yield bonds and a growing proportion of emerging market debt which yields in the 5 to 6 percent category," he said. "Are these bonds as safe as Treasurys? No, they are not triple-A types of investments but they're not overvalued based on quantitative easing procedures that we've seen over the past 12 months.

"So we've moved into Brazil and Mexico and moved money, yes, at the margin into Spain, which has a better balance sheet than the United States."
He said the Total Return fund has returned about 5 percent, whereas a Treasurys portfolio would yield about 2 percent.

My man Bill! He might come back for QE3. We'll see. Moving into Spain over the US? Pretty big no confidence vote considering Spain just got downgraded and outlook negative today or yesterday.

Moody’s cuts Spain’s credit rating
Bank woes, regional finances prompt downgrade
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Spain moved back into the spotlight of Europe’s long-running debt crisis Thursday as Moody’s Investors Services cut the Spanish government’s debt rating.
The rating was downgraded one notch to Aa2 from Aa1, bringing it in line with the rating offered by Standard & Poor’s. Moody’s put the new rating on negative outlook, a signal that a further cut is possible.
Spanish stocks and the euro fell sharply following the downgrade.
Madrid’s IBEX 35 stock index slumped 1.2% to end at 10,435.6. Spanish banks were under pressure, with Banco Santander /quotes/comstock/06x!e:san (ES:SAN 8.17, -0.11, -1.36%) down 1.4% and BBVA /quotes/comstock/06x!e:bbva (ES:BBVA 8.41, -0.15, -1.73%) losing 1.7%.

Moody’s said it fears the restructuring of the nation’s banks will cost more than currently estimated by the government, which could further increase the public-debt ratio.
The agency said it also remained concerned about the government’s ability to structurally improve its public finances given the limits of central-government control over the regional governments’ finances and expectations of “only moderate” economic growth in the short-to-medium term.
Well, that's pretty embarrassing. Maybe Spain is about to get a bailout so he'll go snatch up some of that and be back in time for QE3?

Silver was up .6% today! ;)

I think volatility is about to rear it's head maybe? :dunno:

buy-bonds.jpg
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
I'm long in CRZO, its down +6% just today, and I was already down a few %

looking at CRZO see how the pullback comes right on the RSI touch to 70 at $38 ?

....its always the case with rising pop in oil prices the sector has already bid up in anticipation of the Bull scenario but once this plays out & instability in the ME subsides then the speculators reverse position . Lot of twists & turns in the logic but high prices effect business & consumer =slow down , then less consumption etc etc .
At least thats the KISS way of rationale ...

My KISS chart reading always has me looking automatically at support levels where a stock bounced before after a pullback from the overbought or selloff from the oversold .

CRZO has that 1rst of feb pullback to the 50ma with quick touches to $32 ...and that's where i'd look to buy in again long trade with good confidence . Have to be really Johnny on the spot or put in a buy order there and thats what CRZO did this am . There's also the touch/pullback to $31 jan 24 for eve more support lower down . (anyone who can draw straight line over to the price bar can see this )

A pretty good trade in fact for could have caught just above $32 & held up to $34 or somehwere in there for at least a $50-75c scalp or more . Always look for some nice "even" number like $32 for CRZO cause traders are real stupid & just like em all the time .

Bounced off $32.33 at noon in the pits of the day then back up to $34 & settled right at end @ $33 . Wiggle time ...big big support at $29 . Three down days in a row & CCI just starting to get oversold so maybe this is it .

crzo.png
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
"Marijuana IPOs Provide Investors With Gateway to Cannabis Boom "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-investors-gateway-into-cannabis-economy.html

In an industrial section of Oakland, California, former Morgan Stanley investment banker Derek Peterson hops into a trailer being outfitted with shower drains, lights and humidifiers, all used for growing marijuana.

“This is one we’re finishing up, what we call our bloom room,” he said. Peterson, 36, sells the trailers for $30,000 to $80,000 as “plug-and-play” facilities for cultivating pot. Customers don’t need to buy hydroponic equipment or even stay on-site -- lighting, temperature, nutrients, water and humidity can be operated remotely via an iPhone app.

data


The legalization of medical marijuana -- permitted in at least 15 states -- has kicked off a booming economy in ancillary goods. Startups such as Peterson’s GrowOp Technology Ltd. and General Cannabis Inc. (CANA) compare the phenomenon to the California gold rush, when the people making the real money were the ones selling pick axes and shovels. Both companies are planning initial public offerings, part of an effort to remove the stigma from what’s seen as a multibillion-dollar industry.

“We’re better off by being in the public arena and showing a face of professionalism,” said Jim Pakulis, chief executive officer of General Cannabis, who says medical marijuana could be a $60 billion industry nationwide. “The market will just continue to expand.”

cont'd
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
YOKU & DANG ...two more for the Chinese Major's list ....DANG sort of a mini amazon of china called Dang Dang ...just reported pretty good numbers & projected YOY growth at 50% .
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dangdang-Revenue-Outlook-indie-3751808729.html?x=0&.v=1

SINA ...they have a twitter-like possible spin off Wiebo , the hottest thing to hit the net in China last year
http://blogs.forbes.com/gadyepstein...illions-of-reasons-to-do-so/?partner=yahootix

SINA has bid up in weak market still, just for test sake lets see how it handles double top area again at $95 ....but this is a momo of different proportion , this Wiebo deal really pushing it .

Again the CCI & RSI were saying buy again in the oversold double bottom area @ $75
sina.png
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Now Cramer mentions selling some stocks , just a little awayyyyyy behind the curve
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42009009?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

he mentions seeling CAT & buy back later ....he didn't think it was overbought at $105 ?

Then mentions selling AIG which is already oversold ...

Do like the idea of buying some POT though , if it goes down another 10%, but
really looking like a bounce candidate in here soon ....spring planting right
around the corner ;)

pot.png
 

Sam the Caveman

Good'n Greasy
Veteran
"Marijuana IPOs Provide Investors With Gateway to Cannabis Boom "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-investors-gateway-into-cannabis-economy.html

In an industrial section of Oakland, California, former Morgan Stanley investment banker Derek Peterson hops into a trailer being outfitted with shower drains, lights and humidifiers, all used for growing marijuana.

“This is one we’re finishing up, what we call our bloom room,” he said. Peterson, 36, sells the trailers for $30,000 to $80,000 as “plug-and-play” facilities for cultivating pot. Customers don’t need to buy hydroponic equipment or even stay on-site -- lighting, temperature, nutrients, water and humidity can be operated remotely via an iPhone app.

data


The legalization of medical marijuana -- permitted in at least 15 states -- has kicked off a booming economy in ancillary goods. Startups such as Peterson’s GrowOp Technology Ltd. and General Cannabis Inc. (CANA) compare the phenomenon to the California gold rush, when the people making the real money were the ones selling pick axes and shovels. Both companies are planning initial public offerings, part of an effort to remove the stigma from what’s seen as a multibillion-dollar industry.

“We’re better off by being in the public arena and showing a face of professionalism,” said Jim Pakulis, chief executive officer of General Cannabis, who says medical marijuana could be a $60 billion industry nationwide. “The market will just continue to expand.”

cont'd

someone started a thread on here about this dude. they were saying he rips off a lot of his customers by not giving them enough time to make the first harvest and repoing the trailer when its full of plants in full bloom a week or two before first harvest. The contract will say, in so many words, remainder of balance due in 2.5 months, and thats after they put down a 20k deposit or more. You could say they are a bit dumb to think they will have the first harvest finished and sold in 2.5 months, so they asked for it. I think the guy is an asshat for trying to set them up this way, knowing he is going to take the trailer full of plants and make the harvest himself and sell it on his own and get to keep the trailer to sell again to some idiot that signs on the line.
 
M

Mountain

Yeah I like POT...lol...and does look pretty beat up. Good company.

As for Cramer...now he wants you to sell so he can pick your shares up on the cheap :)

"Marijuana IPOs Provide Investors With Gateway to Cannabis Boom "
I haven't seen a canna based company yet that I like.
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
both EGY & CRZO got some small bounces off that low $32 area mentioned, not much for EGY but CRZO offered some trade if bought right at the am....

Just a slow inside trading day with Gold & Silver upticking & traders parking
their money again but that wild OIH (oil services group) did that bounce of 5pts
right out the gate after 5days down & going into the uncertain weekend

OIH one of the wildest treaders of anything out there , the CCI was tipping the hand that this was ready to bounce from a slight oversold near term & traders don't like to be short going into the weekend & they dipped it just under $150 trading mid $155's here & for now bounce came off the 50ma (lil under)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06916579446

ENER here's some more of the bad news today from Solars, ENER down another 20%
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...fer-too-much-says-jefferies/?mod=yahoobarrons
 
M

Mountain

BRNC - Bronco Drilling. Just stumbled across this one.

Market recovering on soft volume.
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Added BRNC to the list right between bexp & bdco ;)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&...+lei+lng+mhr+oas+nep+nog+royl+rrc+swn+wll+XOM

BRNC pretty overbought on the daily near term & trading at $10 here got a nice pop on earnings last report last night ...looking at the weekly this baby traded as high as $19 back in 08 b4 falling off the recession cliff ...again see if it can handle getting past nice round number of $10 today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRNC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p70779552561

got a couple of oversold (CCI ) pops in the main steel/fabricators NUE & X (US Steel)
always check in on them (& aluminum too ) for they are a gauge of future construction, fabrication , infrastructure & auto manu
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=AKS+AA+BOOM+BHP+CGA+CPSL+CENX+CMC+CRS+FRD+IPS+IIIN+MT+NUE+TIE+x

XOM also got the 2pt bounce today ...where? Right off the 50ma &
"nice round number" $80 dumb traders love to key off of even numbers often
( shorts & longs like to keep it KISS , lol)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93169969050

but XOM & NUE are part of the big ten Major Industrioals that really effect the $DJIA tho a few more could be added ...always check in on them too , they effect so many others .
Like CMI DOW CAT MON FLR BA & DE .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=+^dji+ba+de+cat+cmi+dow+ir+flr+hees+mon+nue+tm+utx+xom+X
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Taking a guess. I'm going to say the dollar is up. Oil is down a bit pushing oil stocks down. I think it will be going back up to $105. It may test $98. :dunno:.

Buy the Dip! ;)

They'll manipulate oil back down soon as they can , its the speculators hedging & driving the prices up while they deal the kahdafi stooge now ...how much of this "renovation" of the ME gov't's spill over into Saudi & Iran . The Saudi's are always willing to turn on the spiggots when needed to allieviate stress on the industrial economies for its to everyone's interest to get back to business as usual & puts quick billions in the Royale house's pockets .

At some point near the mid century mark or sooner those spiggots are going to slow down to a trickle tho , which is why all those oil services stocks like Haliburton, Schlumberger, Transocean , Noble Corp, National Varco , Diamond Drilling etc, are companies valued in the billions .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=oih+xle+bhi+do+esv+hal+hp+fwlt+gsf+ne+nov+pten+rdc+slb


* Hey gramps ...here's a thread you should enjoy , some pretty good exchanges going on :

"Cannabis Prices & The Coming Devaluation of the Dollar
https://www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?p=4285913#post4285913

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M

Mountain

At some point near the mid century mark or sooner those spiggots are going to slow down to a trickle tho
I think sooner rather than later. Some of this was discussed in the gas price thread. I spent a solid year 20 hours a week researching Peak Oil and alternative energy including emerging technologies. That was about 5 years ago and the Saudi oil fields were already showing signs of problems. If you look at oil production graphs most of the increase now is coming from deep water drilling and only so deep they can go and lots of problems/costs associated with deep water stuff. Newer drilling technologies are opening up reserves not feasible to deal with before but that 'new' oil won't even make a dent in the problem.

Interesting thing though is once oil gets above a certain price it will force demand down thus making what's left last longer. Still gonna be a LOT of pain as oil supplies dwindle. The current population level just can't be sustained without plentiful, inexpensive oil.

One thing I'm wondering about is how the quake in Japan will affect things in general. For sure they're gonna focus their $ on their own country and may even collect on some debts?
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Hav to agree , for evrytime they have an oil spike it seems a little less easier to fix with consumption rates being what they are in any recovery ....they are doing so much more & more deeper sea explorations now with amazing drilling technologies to get at that oil.

little too early to figure how the Japan thing plays out but there's a ton of rebuilding to be done /infrastructure (why steels bounced a bit ?) & the Big boys are sure doing their analysis this weekend while the Obama crew working out their plans with Libya & what happens in Saudi A ...

Great example of the Goldman/ Cramer pumping duo , check the chart out for the once high flyer AKAM (many many Cramer pumps) & another powerful example of double & triple tops ...they took this one out to the woodshed . REALLY oversold but dog with fleas?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AKAM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50418649482

The weekly chart shows it going from $10 two yrs ago to that $55 trip top ....god this market went crazy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AKAM&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p68595038696


Near term kind of pegged that bounce for EGY at that $7.25 lower support area mentioned there was a trade in there but had to believe the chart & be right there to catch it ...and for CRZO off that $32 lower support area below on these near term 5day charts

egy
egy.png


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crzo
crzo.png
 
M

Mountain

Madrus - just wanna say I appreciate your charts and take on things. Been awhile since I've been active with this stuff and incorporating some of how you look at things into my 'background' checks on stocks and general market analysis.

You are the voice of reason...lol!
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
tx ...just trying to help out & using these indicators doesn't have to be so difficult though have seen some whiz-chart analysis guys do their thing with all kinds of technicals ...just keep eyes on the RSI & CCI , MACD and look for those obvious support levels & 'resisance tops' on pullbacks or pops not forgeting to pull up a weekly chart often too.
( and do a little FA too =fundamental analysis)

more eyes & ears the merrier ...but IC Mag is just absolutely one of the slowest sites on the net when using any mobile device , almost impossibly slow .
Too many ads & add ons & pics to load <G

Speaking of deep water drilling , here's the news just out today

" US clears more deepwater oil drilling in Gulf
US allows BHP Billiton to resume deepwater drilling in Gulf of Mexico;
2nd permit in 2 weeks "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-clears-more-deepwater-oil-apf-1644611204.html?x=0&.v=4
 
M

Mountain

Speaking of deep water drilling , here's the news just out today

" US clears more deepwater oil drilling in Gulf
US allows BHP Billiton to resume deepwater drilling in Gulf of Mexico;
2nd permit in 2 weeks "
The geology in some areas of the deep Gulf seems pretty messed up...very weak and fractured. Some even said that BP drilled right into an asphalt volcano. This whole subject was covered in another thread though.

Gramps probably has a much better handle on all of this cause he likes drilling holes...lol!
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
looking up the latest sales hoopla on the iPad II release today ....reminded me to look at some of the box maker charts like DELL AAPL & HPQ . With Dell back to #2 pc seller after overtaking Acer thats been hurt by iPad sales
http://venturebeat.com/2011/03/11/dell-overtakes-acer-pc-sales/

HPQ near term looks ready for a bounce after getting hammered on eps results , the daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HPQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p24448604635

but the caution here is in the weekly chart , cause if there's another shoe to fall in the "magic recovery" HPQ weekly shows rather than here but clear strong support at $37.50 which is the august/sept low & back to those 2009 tops . Could bounce in here maybe too...but dont see them rushing in buying it up.

weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HPQ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p59681154725

*thing your going to hear more & more of is not oil being over $100 but
gas being over $4 bucks now everywhere ...thats already driving up airfaires
& will start to put brakes on peeps personal spending .
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
The geology in some areas of the deep Gulf seems pretty messed up...very weak and fractured. Some even said that BP drilled right into an asphalt volcano. This whole subject was covered in another thread though.

Gramps probably has a much better handle on all of this cause he likes drilling holes...lol!

Miracles we've performed in the past century technologically like our ability to to drill deep for oil ...the semi submersable rig "Deepwater Horizon" went down 35,000ft in 4000ft of water and capable of operating in waters up to 8,000ft . wow
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon

And Nuclear Reactors ...thought might as well work on the Uranium stock list after Japan's plight with theirs after the Tsunami
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=^uraxpd+ccj+cxz+dnn+frg+ge+usg+uec+urre+useg+usu+


* Check out the performance for DNN (Dennison Mines Corp, Amex) since last october from $1.50 to $4.50 not a bad performance given the 335mil shares OS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DNN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p46938466628
 
M

Mountain

Miracles we've performed in the past century technologically like our ability to to drill deep for oil ...the semi submersable rig "Deepwater Horizon" went down 35,000ft in 4000ft of water and capable of operating in waters up to 8,000ft . wow
No denying that but it's the pressure and temp at those depths which was, from my little pea brain understanding, also the root of the problems they dealt with when things went wrong. The Gulf floor oozes oil cause it's getting squeezed out by the pressure at those depths and methane turns to ice. Some say that methane hydrate disruptions on the ocean floor have been responsible for some, or at least one, of the climate shifts that have happened in our planetary history. Could be total BS but some have said that BP was trying to tap into methane hydrate reserves with the well that they lost control of. Probably conspiracy theory garbage though.

Like I said Gramps is the one that probably knows this shit and I'm just a hack.

As for the uranium stocks...remember seeing one like a year back that looked like it was coming out of a nice consolidation but lost track of that company. After some research it might have been UUU but that one doesn't look great past history?
 
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