Prop 19 pulls ahead 52% yes - 32% no

[rdy]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/MarijuanaPoll.pdf

In other related news, Philip Harvey, president of Adam & Eve sex toy company, has donated $100,000 to the campaign.

http://www.tokeofthetown.com/2010/07/sex_toys_retailer_pumps_100k_into_marijuana_legali.php

 

[litebuzz]

great...but i wonder if the federal government will sue the state...ya know like they did arizona...different reasons of course...but i could see them making a douchebag move like that.

 

[I.M. Boggled]

Pot Legalization Prop 19 Polls Are All Over The Map -- Why?

Pot Legalization Prop 19 Polls Are All Over The Map -- Why?

(I found this to be an interesting read about "robopolls" and)

"The Broadus Effect"

Of six polls released so far on Prop 19, the November ballot initiative that would legalize marijuana for adults 21 and older, three have the yeas winning easily, while three have it losing narrowly.

What gives? As usual, if you have a polling conundrum, Nate Silver is your man. And in this case, his hypothesis is fascinating.

Silver is the stat whiz who first created a formula for predicting -- with astounding accuracy -- the performance of baseball players. Then, under the pseudonym Poblano, he began analyzing polls to forecast the many outcomes of the long Democratic presidential primary campaign. Then he set up shop as fivethirtyeight.dotcom, which has since been bought by The New York Times. He predicted with uncanny accuracy the 2008 election.
Anyway, Silver notes
that three polls in which Prop 19 is winning are "robopolls," meaning they're automated -- you push a number on your phone to respond. In the three where Prop 19 is losing, the pollsters are actual humans asking the respondents questions.

Silver notices something else: Huge spreads in the numbers among African-Americans.

In the robopolls, blacks favor Prop 19 by 28 points or more. In the only human poll where they break out demographics, African-Americans are opposed by 12. There are large disparities among Latino voters, too.

The hypothesis: The automated polls give the respondent a more secure feeling of anonymity and no social stigma, so he feels free to voice his true opinion.
(Silver also notes that it's possible the automated polls are having trouble getting a representative sample of African-Americans because they have a lower response rate to robopolls.)

But if indeed black voters are more honest with the robopolls, it would amount to a mirror of the Bradley effect.

The Bradley effect was the notion -- broadly speaking -- that people lie to pollsters and say what they think they want to hear.
It refers to Tom Bradley losing the 1982 California governor's race even though he was leading in late polls. The idea is that white voters, out of some vague racial guilt, told pollsters they were voting for Bradley but didn't once in the safe confines of the voting booth.

Silver: Nevertheless, it's possible that we're seeing some sort of Bradley effect in reverse, which I've reluctantly dubbed the "Broadus Effect" after the given name of the rapper Snoop Dogg, himself a frequent consumer of cannabinoid-rich products.

So the idea here is that once voters are in the cozy confines of the ballot box and can register their choice in secret, they may feel free to say yea on Prop 19.

And with that, we have delightful new lingo for the Prop 19 battle:
The Broadus Effect.

http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/marijuana/pot-legalization-prop-19-polls/

IMB

 

[RetroGrow]

Great news!
Now, if only we can keep Obamam out of the states business, we are golden.
But that is not a given, after this king of all hypocrites is now trying to interfere with Arizona law, just so he can get more illegals/Hispanics voting for him.
This is the worst president ever, and to think that he smoked weed himself, but still stands behind laws that put other people in jail for doing the same thing that he did is beyond outrageous. Had he been caught, he would not be president, and his life would have been tarnished forever.
How can he possibly stand behind these laws?

 

[RetroGrow]

Great news!
Now, if only we can keep Obamam out of the states business, we are golden.
But that is not a given, after this king of all hypocrites is now trying to interfere with Arizona law, just so he can get more illegals/Hispanics voting for him.
This is the worst president ever, and to think that he smoked weed himself, but still stands behind laws that put other people in jail for doing the same thing that he did is beyond outrageous. Had he been caught, he would not be president, and his life would have been tarnished forever.
How can he possibly stand behind these laws?

 

[vta]

haha 'The Broadus Effect" love it!

 

[igrowone]

hmm, some positive 19 news, and no screams of 'Richard Lee rigs polls'?
i'm sure some of the grow trolls will eventually stop by to throw some mud

 

[Paco]

I highly doubt that the feds will sue the state over this. the AZ law is actually against the constitution in some wording, though I am still amazed that they went ahead with the case. For Cali to legalize marijuana would create NO contradictory wording with the constitution. However, if the state of Cali decides to open up interstate sales, then yes the feds could come in and do something. As that would be in violation of interstate commerce laws. (the only law that made the federal government relevant in state law making.)
on a side note: I wish you guys would all remember, we voted for a politician. They are all self serving dicks, We have had alot worse for alot longer. And I don't know about you guys, but in CO we haven't been dealing with the feds much. Y'all might wanna try amending your law to your state constitution. That has kept em at bay I think...

 

[JackTheGrower]

I think it is too close to call.

Since I was Capitan for Stanislaus county I have spoken with many on this subject and I believe many that would vote yes won't go vote.
I am sure the Hispanics of my area are against any decriminalizing of Cannabis. I know the Churches are against it and we have a lot of churches here.

Is the Prop 19 crew sponsoring voter registration drives?

The only ones I have seen signing people up to vote have been the Republican party and they are anti-prop 19

The biggest problem I faced here was getting people to get up and do something.

Is this mud? I doubt it. It's the truth. Getting people to the voting booth is the real challenge in a non-presidential election year. Traditionally more republicans vote in non-presidential years than democrats.

 

[igrowone]

Is this mud? I doubt it. It's the truth. Getting people to the voting booth is the real challenge in a non-presidential election year. Traditionally more republicans vote in non-presidential years than democrats.

this is not mud, this is a thoughtful post
but i do see some fairly wild claims in the anti 19 camp
are they worse than the pro 19's that get carried away?
not sure if i would i would call them worse, but more outrageous
Richard Lee is usually vilified, Phillip Morris is setting up square mile MJ farms

 

[vta]

Phillip Morris is setting up square mile MJ farms

I keep seeing this but I have never seen a link for any proof. Anybody got one?

 

[bluekush]

I agree I think it is too early to call would like to see what the polls look like in a month.

 

[icon]

Originally Posted by igrowone View Post
Phillip Morris is setting up square mile MJ farms

I keep seeing this but I have never seen a link for any proof. Anybody got one?

PARANOIA WILL DISTROY YA