Odds and probability of getting female seeds from standard seeds

[crawdad]

i think all this proves is that...folks who make or sell something always "stretch the blanket" and that you actually get what mother nature deals you..

is it true that the seed wont determine sex until after it is out of the ground? i know it can herm out but...does it one day wake up and decide it wants to go the other way? a bi-seed?

crawdad

 

[VCSDave]

I can guarantee that table wasn't written to "stretch the blanket". We wrote it after trying to figure out the odds one day, and just thought we'd publish it in case other people were interested!

The odds show 'at least X number of female seeds' (which was omitted from the original post here) and that's why the odds may seem inflated to look at.

i.e. there's a 68.8% of getting at least 2 fems out of 4 seeds - in other words, a 68.8% chance of getting 2, 3 or 4 fems.

 

[VCSDave]

Oh, and hermies happen due to things like stress (i.e. bad conditions, cuttings, re-potting, etc.). The less stress the better. I wouldn't have thought it is possible (or very likely) for the seed to be a hermie as soon as it cracks.

 

[crawdad]

well i have heard that if a herm pollenates, everything from those seeds would be herms...so predetermined there i think...

thats why i usually dont fool with a bunch of seeds from something off the street cause chances are its from a herm...not a controlled pollenation i mean...now if its only a couple seeds from a bag...then those i would hang on to...chances are they are females from self pollenation in an effort to save itself...where pollenation does not occur i mean..

but...could you duplicate those results? each time? 10 seeds = ?? and 10 seeds = ??

i have gotten more females from nirvana than males..and i would say that was a couple hundred seeds, so probably around 30% male...i figured i just got lucky..or was holdin my mouth just right..

but i am no expert by no means...

i will defer to the pros...

and i agree the chart is useful, wish i could test it...

crawdad

 

[LAMBS-BREAD]

Hey guys

last time i germinated 4 standart seeds (2 mazar 2 white widow) they turned to be 4 female! Now i just craked up 40 seeds, 39 are in first week of veg 1 died. I will let u know how much female i get out of the 39....

 

[Justa6655321]

i just had a very high percentage of males in my current grow. 70% were males in this batch 70% fuckin percent....

 

[Dr Dog]

well i have heard that if a herm pollenates, everything from those seeds would be herms...so predetermined there i think...

crawdad

Seeds from a hermied plant will produce female seeds which can carry a tendency to develop into hermis later, or have a better than average change of carrying hermaphroditic traits

I dont believe there is anything you can do to ensure more females from natural growth, just like every other creature, that is decided at conception and has nothing to do with environmental conditions.

 

[crawdad]

hey dog=whats happening?-hey, why does everybody pull hermes then? bad smoke, seeded? i get rid of them first sign, except in the field...then i just let em go...not sinse though...

anway the chart does give us some idea of what to expect... apparently they already figured it out..

my overall experience is 50/50 pretty much...the only male plant i dont like is in the field..but that is ok since we want sinse...now if we were talking land races then thats probably a whole other thread that would go on and on....cross pollenation, back crossing, inbreds, polyploids yadda yadda...

arent most of the seeds from these seed banks pretty controlled? i mean they are breeding White Widow...i guess thats a best ww female with the best ww male?

regards

crawdad

crawdad

 

[Dr Dog]

whos to say what they are sellin you , is really what you are buying? Unless it comes in original packaging, I would not even waste my time

People pull hermis, normally early in flower, because they do not want a bunch of seeds to pull out later, and when i plant is making seeds it concentrates less on making buds and resin.

That same chart would apply for humans as well, if you wanted to have 20 kids to test it out 100 times, it is just a math equation. It was said earlier and it rings correct that, you have the same odds of getting males

 

[VCSDave]

Self-pollination is a way to produce feminised seeds as it produces seeds with genetics that prevent them growing into males. However, it is much easier to end up with hermies as they cannot withstand as much stress.

As far as removing them, Dog is right on principle, but the wrong way round really. When males (or hermies) are removed, the females go into overdrive or 'survival mode' and produce more and more buds in order to try and be pollinated.

Dog - are you referring to Pick 'n' Mix Seeds when you say "whos to say what they are sellin you"? Cos I can guarantee we do send out the original product, and place a portion of the original packaging in with each seed.

 

[Dr Dog]

Dog - are you referring to Pick 'n' Mix Seeds when you say "whos to say what they are sellin you"? Cos I can guarantee we do send out the original product, and place a portion of the original packaging in with each seed.

What I am saying, is that if you are spending money on something, you should get original sealed packaging, not a portion, the whole thing. If I order something from GHS, then I expect it shows up inside it proper packaging. Anything less, I would question my purchase, and everyone else should too

 

[libby]

Read the T1tle.......Law of average 50-50

 

[92GTi]

Cash can be "lost" and nothing can be done about it. Be smart with buying anything online or in person. Know what you are going in there for before you hand over your time(money).

 

[LolaGal]

I got some Nirvana seeds from 2 different places....

The first Nirvana package had a date stamp(month/year) on the back, but the others from 2nd place did not....Just curious if that means anything??

And why don't these places use some kind of crush proof package? Doesn't seem that hard to pack in something besides a bubble wrap mailer. I didn't get any crushed, but package had each seed's outline marked in the wrapper, where it had gone through mail and been squished.

As you may have guessed, I haven't purchased many beans!

 

[VCSDave]

I don't think all Nirvana seeds are date stamped. In fact, I'm not even sure if they do it at all now.

A lot of banks have crush-proof packaging as standard such as Flying Dutchmen, Green House, Sensi, Barney's Farm, Big Buddha. But others don't, i.e. Dutch Passion, Nirvana, etc.

 

[Brigand13]

I don't think all Nirvana seeds are date stamped. In fact, I'm not even sure if they do it at all now.

.

But back to the topic, what percentage of date stamped seeds are female?

 

[crawdad]

not tryin to start an argument or anything but i dont see how you can give me ten seeds that are just random seeds and not feminized or whatever and think you can predict an outcome that its better than 50/50...

if i have ten seeds and i pull out one seed and plant it today, then that seed has a 50/50 chance of being either sex....right or am i really stupid?

repeat that over and over till all ten seeds are gone...you still end up with 50/50 chance for each seed...

i have planted two seeds and gotten two females....thats just luck...

there is no change in probability if they are all planted at the same time or come from a different hand...from the same bucket...

the title of the thread is odds and probability...i say it is still 50/50 unless you monkey around with the plant or the seed like with gibberilic acid or whatever that crap is called..

if you want to make female seeds, thats easy....take a female plant (known solid female), then make sure there is no way for the plant to get pollenated....

once the plant realizes it wont be pollenated it triggers an amazing thing....self preservation...the plant will try and pollenate itself....people on here call them "nanners"..these nanners are supposed to be all female pollen...thats what i hear..

thats why if i find a seed or two hidden in a bud of some kill then i always save that baby because it will be a female seed more than likely...self pollenated by the same plant it came from..

i also had a male plant that had grown some calyx's on it and actually got seeds from the male plant...no bs its true...i had some pics of it and i was sure i posted about it last year...rare i hear...i will try and locate the pics...i hear these are some special seeds too..

i also had a female plant that was growing calyx's at the apex of the fan leafs...YES thats what i said...rare i hear...

this plant is capable of almost anything!

anyway i say 50/50 is pretty much all a person could expect...NOT HOPE FOR but expect...you can always HOPE...

crawdad

 

[PrimoVG]

not tryin to start an argument or anything but i dont see how you can give me ten seeds that are just random seeds and not feminized or whatever and think you can predict an outcome that its better than 50/50...

if i have ten seeds and i pull out one seed and plant it today, then that seed has a 50/50 chance of being either sex....right or am i really stupid?

repeat that over and over till all ten seeds are gone...you still end up with 50/50 chance for each seed...

i have planted two seeds and gotten two females....thats just luck...

there is no change in probability if they are all planted at the same time or come from a different hand...from the same bucket...

the title of the thread is odds and probability...i say it is still 50/50 unless you monkey around with the plant or the seed like with gibberilic acid or whatever that crap is called..

if you want to make female seeds, thats easy....take a female plant (known solid female), then make sure there is no way for the plant to get pollenated....

once the plant realizes it wont be pollenated it triggers an amazing thing....self preservation...the plant will try and pollenate itself....people on here call them "nanners"..these nanners are supposed to be all female pollen...thats what i hear..

thats why if i find a seed or two hidden in a bud of some kill then i always save that baby because it will be a female seed more than likely...self pollenated by the same plant it came from..

i also had a male plant that had grown some calyx's on it and actually got seeds from the male plant...no bs its true...i had some pics of it and i was sure i posted about it last year...rare i hear...i will try and locate the pics...i hear these are some special seeds too..

i also had a female plant that was growing calyx's at the apex of the fan leafs...YES thats what i said...rare i hear...

this plant is capable of almost anything!

anyway i say 50/50 is pretty much all a person could expect...NOT HOPE FOR but expect...you can always HOPE...

crawdad

interesting....have you grown these beans out? i would guess that seeds from a hermie plant would produce hermies....am i wrong?

as for the main topic, i say that if you plant 1 standard M/F seed today your chances are 50/50.....proper growing conditions can help your odds i guess...but it's still a coin toss...

peace

 

[Pompey_Monkey]

not tryin to start an argument or anything but i dont see how you can give me ten seeds that are just random seeds and not feminized or whatever and think you can predict an outcome that its better than 50/50...

if i have ten seeds and i pull out one seed and plant it today, then that seed has a 50/50 chance of being either sex....right or am i really stupid?

repeat that over and over till all ten seeds are gone...you still end up with 50/50 chance for each seed...

i have planted two seeds and gotten two females....thats just luck...

there is no change in probability if they are all planted at the same time or come from a different hand...from the same bucket...

the title of the thread is odds and probability...i say it is still 50/50 unless you monkey around with the plant or the seed like with gibberilic acid or whatever that crap is called..

if you want to make female seeds, thats easy....take a female plant (known solid female), then make sure there is no way for the plant to get pollenated....

once the plant realizes it wont be pollenated it triggers an amazing thing....self preservation...the plant will try and pollenate itself....people on here call them "nanners"..these nanners are supposed to be all female pollen...thats what i hear..

thats why if i find a seed or two hidden in a bud of some kill then i always save that baby because it will be a female seed more than likely...self pollenated by the same plant it came from..

i also had a male plant that had grown some calyx's on it and actually got seeds from the male plant...no bs its true...i had some pics of it and i was sure i posted about it last year...rare i hear...i will try and locate the pics...i hear these are some special seeds too..

i also had a female plant that was growing calyx's at the apex of the fan leafs...YES thats what i said...rare i hear...

this plant is capable of almost anything!

anyway i say 50/50 is pretty much all a person could expect...NOT HOPE FOR but expect...you can always HOPE...

crawdad

Crawdad -

The math used to calculate the numbers in the table is good.

Yes you are right to say that a seed picked at random has a 50/50 chance of being male or female.

The above two statements are not mutually exclusive. In fact the table was calculated using the same assertion that you use to argue against it!...


...All the table is saying is that (for example) if you plant 4 ramdomly selected seeds then you have a 68.8% (actually 68.75%) chance of getting at least 2 females.
It does not say that 68.8% of seeds germinated in batches of four will be female.

Consider the diagram (that I'm about to have a go at) below - I shows all the possible combinations of male/female when planting 4 seeds, assuming a 50% chance of either sex presenting. M = male and F= female btw

1 M M M M
2 M M M F
3 M M F M
4 M M F F
5 M F M M
6 M F M F
7 M F F M
8 M F F F
9 F M M M
10 F M M F
11 F M F M
12 F M F F
13 F F M M
14 F F M F
15 F F F M
16 F F F F

Now in 11 out of the 16 cases there are at least 2 females.
11/16 * 100% = 68.75%

The table is correct. It does not guarantee 68% females. It guarantees a 68% chance of getting 50% or more females.

geddit?

I've had enough - I need a smoke after that! hehe.

 

[LolaGal]

Hermie seeds will all be females, both (?) parents only had female genes....

Feminized seeds = hermie seeds...........Dat's how dey makes em!