is the commercial weed market recession proof ?

[HuffAndPuff]

Simple Microeconomics- The Elasticity of Demand....

The demand for marijuana is INELASTIC. Therefore, an increase in price will do little to alter the demand for the product. One could argue that it is more/less elastic for certain grades of product (schwag, middies, BC, Headies) than for others. Think about when your town is dry (silly non-growers!) and you haven't chiefed in 2 days. You'd be willing to pay a lot more for the same gram of weed than you'd be if the town was flooded with it.

HuffAndPuff

 

[ItsGrowTime]

I think it's about as close to recession proof as you can get for something that's not a physically dependant substance like booze or heroin or tobacco. Anything that helps people cope with stress will always be in demand.

Off Topic, ureapwhatusow, who is that in your avatar? The guy is a dead ringer for my uncle.

 

[HuffAndPuff]

Ureaps avi is Frank Zappa. I wish my uncle looked like him!

On topic- I think the question needs to be more clearly defined. Recessions may involve deflation (falling prices) or inflation (rising prices) via stagflation. A 'recession' can be defined in a couple of ways, but generally, it can be considered a decline in several economic indicators over a few months- GDP, employment, sales, and income.

Are you asking if the price of ganja changes during these periods? Or if the demand for it changes? or if the demand changes with price?

You have to apply the notion of ceterus paribus- holding other things equal. What grade of ganja are we talking about, and in what part of the country during what part of the year? Very difficult to do, as mids can easily replace beasters in some places, texas is always going to have cheaper weed than everywhere else, assuming mexi brick, etc.

I would argue that the price of most ganja is constantly fluctuating, albeit slightly, in the short term. Over time, the price has generally increased. I would also argue that whilst supply may vary (and price, accordingly) the demand for marijuana remains more or less constant. See my comment on inelasticity, above.

HuffAndPuff

 

[sneakyninja]

What you guys are failing to see is that as the recession comes in to full swing more people will be looking for either a new source of income or to supplement their income as they lose buying power due to one of several factors (inflation, job loss, loss of equity etc.)

As a direct result of this influx of growers the price of beasters/low grade headies will initially drop while the supply will spike. As this new generation of commercial growers becomes experienced the prices of beasters/low grade headies will return to closer to normal as will supply and the high end headies will undergo the exact same phenomenon, however this phenomenon will remain until one of the following happens

1)The risk begins to overwhelm the potential gains due to new laws and less people are willing to grow

2)the market price reaches a point where at any lower price the total of the accounting costs (real costs like equipment) + economic costs (opportunity costs (other things you could have been doing instead) and in this case also the cost of taking a risk) is a negative number, at this point some growers will stop and the market will achieve equilibrium (a balance).

Of course all this phenomenon will serve to do in the long term is counterbalance the effects of inflation. Essentially the end user wont see much of a change in price but the growers profit margins will be squeezed a little.

Marijuana is just another part of the economy and while demand for it is fairly inelastic it is still subject to the same rules, just with a few variations here and there due to its current legal status.

 

[Stoner4Life]

Quality weed, cured to perfection = ALWAYS in demand for top $$$.

new growers flooding the market with inferior bud should drive the top shelf prices even higher than they are now, I don't buy or smoke any beasters type bud these days unless I'm out of town w/limited connects, I'll toke up on friends beasters to be polite of course and some of it has a surprising buzz occasionally.


If you're able to grow or inventory any appreciable amount of quality cannabis you can be sure to be able to sell it in short order, finding that perfect balance between keeping that biz on the dl and yet being able to have it make ends meet (ends justifying the means) for you is the key to remaining free.

Quality weed is recession proof for sure.......

 

[Northern_Greens]

weed sells itself, YOU dont sell IT,
but i can say as a new grower with only a few harvests that the market is always flooded with "beasters" we call it "chin-dro". and at least in my area quality over quantity growers are a dying breed. so i really think that what Huff said is true: it depends where when and why



N_G

 

[newbgrow]

Drugs are not only recession-proof, in my opinion, they rise with recessions. What are people going to do when they're not out driving around or shopping anymore?

Edit: And when I say "drugs"... you know what I mean...

 

[zeeba amoeba]

Simple Microeconomics- The Elasticity of Demand....

The demand for marijuana is INELASTIC. Therefore, an increase in price will do little to alter the demand for the product. One could argue that it is more/less elastic for certain grades of product (schwag, middies, BC, Headies) than for others. Think about when your town is dry (silly non-growers!) and you haven't chiefed in 2 days. You'd be willing to pay a lot more for the same gram of weed than you'd be if the town was flooded with it.

HuffAndPuff

I dunno about that, I would pass on weed if it went above $50 for an eighth of dank. There are limits as to how far you can go before people balk.

Also what you will find is that if the price gets too high, new suppliers move into satisfy the demand and reap the huge profits. The market is self-correcting to a large extent... Dealers charge whatever they can but I for one would pass on an unfair price. There's always another dealer somewhere else in town and if not, there's always another town you can try to find a dealer in.

My local hookup ganked me on the first eighth I bought from him...it weighed less than 3 g's... ever since he's been calling, wondering if I'm interested in buying more weed. Answer is no, I found another source, probably won't ever bother w/ him ever again. Weed is just like any other business, reputation is built upon past experiences, and if you treat your customer like shit then you lose that customer not just for a little while but for life. Too bad for him because I got the dough too and he could have sold a lot more than just a lousy eighth. Then there's word of mouth, he misses out on all of the people I could have sent his way. Total cost of his screw up is probably in the neighborhood of a grand, maybe more.

 

[NPK]

So, the economic picture has worsened considerably since the last time anybody commented in this thread. We're hearing that it's going to be a dismal holiday season for retailers. On the other hand, conventional wisdom holds that "vice" sales spike during bad times.

I'm curious: are people still finding a ready market for their wares, even as unemployment and home foreclosure numbers climb?

 

[Rainman]

Ganja is like water in the desert! Its better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it. In Norcal it is better than cash or gold damn near. The problem is the quality of herb is so good if your goods dont really stand out you wont get much repeat business except for the last minute desperation calls. People here really take pride in their herb so Chems , Urkle, GDP, Bubba k, Goo,and TW rule the scene. People hate on the purples and call it played all the time on here but nothing sells out faster around these parts and is asked for more. And dont even get me started on the way prices change in the dry weeks leading up to the harvest season! People start paying crazy prices for stuff when they think there is a drought goin on! Funny! Peace!

 

[JohnnyATL]

Ganja is like water in the desert! Its better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it. In Norcal it is better than cash or gold damn near. The problem is the quality of herb is so good if your goods dont really stand out you wont get much repeat business except for the last minute desperation calls. People here really take pride in their herb so Chems , Urkle, GDP, Bubba k, Goo,and TW rule the scene. People hate on the purples and call it played all the time on here but nothing sells out faster around these parts and is asked for more. And dont even get me started on the way prices change in the dry weeks leading up to the harvest season! People start paying crazy prices for stuff when they think there is a drought goin on! Funny! Peace!

people around these parts pay 140-150 a qtr for anything that has a hint of purple and smells like skunk

 

[ItsGrowTime]

Business is good

People coming up short on hours at regular jobs are seeing the profit opportunity of weed, thus raising demand. I wish I had a bigger room

 

[ureapwhatusow]

funny

since this thread started most ppl are worse off

if i add a zero to the wattage i run i still couldnt meet demand

AND

Im getting calls from all kinds of older folk who enjoy those mid grade imports bsters and the such and with a quiver in their voice crying no one has nothing

 

[mexilandrace]

I wrote a huge rant about commercial growing but decided to STFU about it.

Just don't raise your prices because the demand is there, people are struggling to make ends meet. More stress=more weed sales, don't fuck people over.

please don't hit me with 1000 neg reps over this shit, it's just how I feel

 

[ureapwhatusow]

whos talking bout raising prices, you can stimulate the enconomy by raising supplly also

 

[gdawg]

i usually dont even post on these kind of threads cause they always get locked but i do think that weed sales will rise for the holidays, despite consumer spending drops at the mall and wallyword. (EVERYWHERE) i dont think dealers would raise prices just because of increased demand. maybe if a shortage of supply or such then yes prices may rise and justly so. dealers got kids just like buyers, and if the price of living goes up, like it steadily has been, so must his work. now if that dealers market floods, like norcal with the outdoor right now, then you will see prices drop or that dealer go out of biz and the next one step up. if times keep getting harder and prohibition continues then i woould think prices are going to rise while demand remains steady if not slightly increasing.

 

[bakunin15]

In the Russian economic collapse of the 90's, Vodka was the most reliable form of currency. Because it was rationed, the supply could not keep up with demand, and those that had it positioned themselves well as the economy slowly stabilized.

If a collapse that even slightly resembles that of the Russian 90's hits the U.S. (I think is very possible) some of the immature wise-asses on this site will have more power then they ever imagined lol.

 

[gdawg]

If a collapse that even slightly resembles that of the Russian 90's hits the U.S. (I think is very possible) some of the immature wise-asses on this site will have more power then they ever imagined lol.

FOCK i aint got the first drop of vodka

 

[GET MO]

I believe that with the recession on the rise and more people without jobs and means of support has led to more and more people growing, and (in california anyways) that means prices drop (especially during this season) and the market is completely flooded. Everybody and there momma tryna sell weed these days, so Id suggest dont quit your day job(if you got one) and if your tryna get into the market, go getchou some GDP, Erkel, or SR71 Purple clones and make sure they turn color, otherwise your shit wont sell. Either that or find an out of state connect.
I couldnt imagine sellin herb, shit I usually give away 3/4 of my crop to my folks in need, but I got friends in the business and they say its ugly right now.

 

[Pops]

I have contacts with 4 delivery services in the SD area and business is down. Lots of outdoor going around. There is enough good indoor that you had better have quality stuff to sell or you better discount it. Caregivers who don't charge or who accept donations are seeing prices for goods go up, but their donations go down as folks are having a harder time paying bills.