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    I’ve seen fucking EVERYTHING now....

    Trichrider, buddy, do you realize you’ve switched sides with these last two posts????
    The FUTURE: *LIVE* it - or live *with* it...it’s just starting...NOW

    Don’t vote for rich people - they’re not going to vote for YOU...
    ——————
    “You never see the lies that *YOU* believe, you know you have been captured,
    Still you feel so civilized...”


    I’m not a fool, but I can recognize one
    ——————
    Letting my freak flag fly!

    Comment


      hot off the wire, which describes the situation quite well
      in short, September 2020, hottest September in the record book
      matches arctic conditions very well

      Monthly Temperature: September 2020

      During September 2020, warmer-than-average temperatures were present across much of the globe. Temperature departures of +1.5°C (+2.7°F) or higher were observed across parts of the North Pacific Ocean, western parts of Canada and the U.S., the North Atlantic Ocean, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. Record-warm September temperatures departures were present across the Middle East and Mediterranean Sea, northern and southern parts of Asia, Kara Sea, the north and western Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, northwestern Australia, as well as parts of South America and the western contiguous U.S. Overall, about 8.49% of the world's land and ocean surfaces had a record-warm September temperature. This was the second highest September percentage since records began in 1951, behind September 2015. Cooler-than-average conditions were limited to parts of Greenland and adjacent portions of the North Atlantic Ocean, eastern Canada, the eastern U.S., the tropical eastern and central Pacific Ocean, the southern Indian Ocean, and the western part of Asia and northern Africa. However, no land or ocean areas had record-cold September temperatures.
      Regionally, Europe had its warmest September with a temperature departure of +2.33°C (+4.19°F), exceeding the now second warmest September set in 2015, 2017, and 2018 by 0.22°C (0.40°F). Europe's five warmest Septembers have occurred since 2006. Meanwhile, South America, Asia, and Oceania had their second-warmest September since regional records began in 1910.

      September 2020 Blended Land and Sea Surface
      Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius


      September 2020 Blended Land and Sea Surface
      Temperature Percentiles

      Averaged as a whole, the September 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature was the highest for September in the 141-year record at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F). This value surpassed the previous record set in 2015 and, again in 2016, by only 0.02°C (0.04°F). The month of September 2020 marked the 44th consecutive September and the 429th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. The ten warmest Septembers have occurred since 2005, while the seven warmest Septembers have occurred in the last seven years (2014–2020).
      current grow: www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?p=7872194

      Comment


        hot year in Arizona too.

        Especially hot.

        https://www.chron.com/news/article/P...g-15647373.php

        Lucky people have AC, a cultural difference with Europe.
        Never Under-estimate the Psychopathic-ness of a Politician

        who is in Save the Children Mode.

        Comment


          Inside Venice's bid to hold back the tide
          https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...sea-level-rise



          ---

          "All men's souls are immortal, but the souls of the righteous are immortal and divine."
          --Socrates

          Comment


            Biggest CO2 drop: Real-time data shows Covid-19’s massive impact on global emissions



            10/14/2020 - While the ongoing Corona pandemic continues to threaten millions of lives around the world, the first half of 2020 saw an unprecedented decline in CO2 emissions – larger than during the financial crisis of 2008, the oil crisis of 1979, or even World War II. An international team of researchers has found that in the first six months of this year, 8.8 percent less carbon dioxide were emitted than in the same period in 2019 – a total decrease of 1551 million tonnes. The groundbreaking study not only offers a much more precise look at COVID-19’s impact on global energy consumption than previous analyses. It also suggests what fundamental steps could be taken to stabilize the global climate in the aftermath of the pandemic.
            Empty streets in Belfast, Northern Ireland during the lockdown (Photo: K. Mitch Hodge/Unsplash) “What makes our study unique is the analysis of meticulously collected near-real-time data,” explains lead author Zhu Liu from the Department of Earth System Science at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “By looking at the daily figures compiled by the Carbon Monitor research initiative we were able to get a much faster and more accurate overview, including timelines that show how emissions decreases have corresponded to lockdown measures in each country. In April, at the height of the first wave of Corona infections, when most major countries shut down their public life and parts of their economy, emissions even declined by 16.9%. Overall, the various outbreaks resulted in emission drops that we normally see only on a short-term basis on holidays such as Christmas or the Chinese Spring Festival.”
            An in-depth look at different economic sectors

            The study, published in the latest issue of Nature Communications, shows which parts of the global economy were most impacted. “The greatest reduction of emissions was observed in the ground transportation sector,” explains Daniel Kammen, professor and Chair of the Energy and Resources Group and also professor in the Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley. “Largely because of working from home restrictions, transport CO2 emissions decreased by 40% worldwide. In contrast, the power and industry sectors contributed less to the decline, with -22% and -17%, respectively, as did the aviation and shipping sectors. Surprisingly, even the residential sector saw a small emissions drop of 3%: largely because of an abnormally warm winter in the northern hemisphere, heating energy consumption decreased with most people staying at home all day during lockdown periods.”

            To paint this comprehensive and multidimensional picture, the researchers based their estimates on the widest array of data possible: precise, hourly datasets of electricity power production in 31 countries, daily vehicle traffic in more than 400 cities worldwide, daily global passenger flights, monthly production data for industry in 62 countries as well as fuel consumption data for building emissions in more than 200 countries.
            "We need structural and transformational changes"

            The researchers also found strong rebound effects. With the exception of a continuing decrease of emissions stemming from the transportation sector, by July 2020, as soon as lockdown measures were lifted, most economies resumed their usual levels of emitting CO2. But even if they remained at their historically low levels, this would have a rather minuscule effect on the long-term CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

            Thus, the authors stress that the only valid strategy to stabilize the climate is a complete overhaul of the industry and commerce sector. “While the CO2 drop is unprecedented, decreases of human activities cannot be the answer,” says co-author Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Instead we need structural and transformational changes in our energy production and consumption systems. Individual behavior is certainly important, but what we really need to focus on is reducing the carbon intensity of our global economy.”
            https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/l...obal-emissions
            "when i run outta weed, i smoke match sticks...
            that first hit is FIRE!!!"


            "I'm not always a dick...but when I am, I drink cheap beer".

            Comment


              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd64xdXLccM


              [youtubeif]Wd64xdXLccM[/youtubeif]
              "when i run outta weed, i smoke match sticks...
              that first hit is FIRE!!!"


              "I'm not always a dick...but when I am, I drink cheap beer".

              Comment


                good evening gents
                time for update because the arctic conditions are noteworthy
                in short we've been in significant record lows for the last couple of weeks
                the last record lows were last year in 2019, back to back
                so it's getting to be a pattern, ice just doesn't build as quickly as it did
                Attached Files
                current grow: www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?p=7872194

                Comment


                  https://www.earthfiles.com/2019/08/3...in-antarctica/

                  This is self explanatory.
                  You do NOT see this material in the MAINSTREAM news around the world.
                  Shit in your pants all you non-believers out there.
                  https://www.earthfiles.com/2019/08/3...in-antarctica/
                  And remember kids, always use Grandma's Molasses at 1 teaspoon per gallon for your last few waterings, you'll be glad you did......check on ebay for Grandma's, I found a couple there.

                  http://www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.p...light=molasses

                  Home distilled water: Check on ebay for countertop distillers.

                  Insects got you down? Try HOTSHOT No Pest Strips (NPS). Say goodbye to spider mites, etc.

                  $20 Hash Press http://www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?t=47524



                  How to transplant stress free: http://www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.p...94#post1500194

                  Need durable Plant Markers? Cut an old venetian blind to your size and label with a Sharpie!

                  Overgrow the world


                  *****ANYBODY for President *****

                  The only WOODSTOCK I saw was the WOODSTOCK of my M-14 rifle.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by gladysvjubb View Post
                    https://www.earthfiles.com/2019/08/3...in-antarctica/

                    This is self explanatory.
                    You do NOT see this material in the MAINSTREAM news around the world.
                    Shit in your pants all you non-believers out there.
                    https://www.earthfiles.com/2019/08/3...in-antarctica/
                    I'm laughing too much to be shitting in my pants.

                    Comment


                      https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/l...an-surf/101741

                      Live Youtube stream of Nazare, big wave spot in Portugal.

                      About to meet clean & Large open ocean swell, Thursday & Friday.

                      The North Pole is in the background & off to the right.
                      Never Under-estimate the Psychopathic-ness of a Politician

                      who is in Save the Children Mode.

                      Comment


                        Coupling of the subpolar gyre and the overturning circulation during abrupt glacial climate transitions

                        M. Klockmann
                        U. Mikolajewicz
                        H. Kleppin
                        J. Marotzke

                        First published: 22 October 2020
                        https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090361

                        Abstract

                        We present a mechanism for self?sustained ocean circulation changes that cause abrupt temperature changes over Greenland in a multi?millennial climate model simulation with glacial CO2 concentrations representative of Marine Isotope Stage 3. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG) oscillate on millennial timescales. When the AMOC is strong, the SPG is weak and contracted; when the AMOC is weak, the SPG is strong and extensive. The coupling between the two systems via wind?driven and density?driven feedbacks is key to maintaining the oscillations. The SPG controls the transport of heat and salt into the deep?water formation sites and thus controls the AMOC strength. The strength and location of the deep?water formation affect the density?driven part of the SPG and thus control the mean strength and extent of the SPG. This mechanism supports the hypothesis that coupled ocean?ice?atmosphere interactions could have triggered abrupt glacial climate change.

                        Plain Language Summary

                        Between 57.000 and 29.000 years ago, the last glacial period was marked by several abrupt warming and cooling events over Greenland and the North Atlantic. Understanding the mechanism behind these so?called Dansgaard?Oeschger events increases our understanding of possible tipping points that cause abrupt change in the earth system. The role of the ocean in causing these events is still a topic of debate. We _nd abrupt changes in the North Atlantic circulation that resemble Dansgaard?Oeschger events in a simulation with a state?of?the?art climate model. These simulated ocean circulation changes are generated without adding external triggers such as meltwater from glaciers. Instead, the events are generated by the interaction of the the two large?scale current systems in the North Atlantic {the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Both current systems are affected by changes in surface winds and the density pattern of the North Atlantic. We find that the location where the densest water is formed controls how the SPG interacts with the AMOC. Under favorable conditions, the effects of wind and density combine in such a way that changes in the SPG cause abrupt changes in the AMOC.

                        https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2020GL090361

                        A continuous pathway for fresh water along the East Greenland shelf
                        1. View ORCID ProfileNicholas P. Foukal1,*,
                        2. View ORCID ProfileRenske Gelderloos2 and
                        3. View ORCID ProfileRobert S. Pickart1

                        Abstract

                        Export from the Arctic and meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet together form a southward-flowing coastal current along the East Greenland shelf. This current transports enough fresh water to substantially alter the large-scale circulation of the North Atlantic, yet the coastal current’s origin and fate are poorly known due to our lack of knowledge concerning its north-south connectivity. Here, we demonstrate how the current negotiates the complex topography of Denmark Strait using in situ data and output from an ocean circulation model. We determine that the coastal current north of the strait supplies half of the transport to the coastal current south of the strait, while the other half is sourced from offshore via the shelfbreak jet, with little input from the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results indicate that there is a continuous pathway for Arctic-sourced fresh water along the entire East Greenland shelf from Fram Strait to Cape Farewell.

                        INTRODUCTION

                        Along the continental shelf of East Greenland, fresh water near the coast and saltier water offshore create a cross-shelf density gradient that supports a southward-flowing coastal current (Fig. 1A). The current intensifies as it flows southward, reaching a maximum of about 2 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3/s) near Cape Farewell (1). Despite its relatively small transport, the exceptionally fresh waters of the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) make it a vital component of the large-scale circulation. Over 30% of the total oceanic freshwater transport between Greenland and Scotland is carried by the EGCC [referenced to the section mean salinity (2)], and it is an important component of the Arctic freshwater budget (1).




                        Fig. 1 Circulation of the East Greenland shelf.(A) Schematic circulation of the East Greenland shelf region. Bathymetry is shaded, and the 350- and 500-m isobaths are highlighted in black. The East Greenland Current (orange) flows southward at the shelfbreak along the entirety of East Greenland. The EGCC (pink) has been documented upstream of Denmark Strait and downstream of the Kangerdlugssuaq (KG) Trough, but its connection across Denmark Strait is unknown (dashed line). Other circulation features are shown in gray. The black dashed line outlines the region shown in (B). (B) Depth-integrated absolute geostrophic transports (see section S1) for water with salinity less than 34 from various hydrographic sections across Denmark Strait (year and cruise codes provided in legend). Bathymetric contours are shown every 25 m for 0 to 250 m, every 50 m for 250 to 500 m, and every 200 m deeper than 600 m. The 250-, 350-, 500-, and 1000-m isobaths are highlighted in black.


                        As the EGCC rounds Cape Farewell, a portion of the fresh water progresses northward along the west coast of Greenland, while the remainder is fluxed offshore into the interior of the subpolar gyre (1). The potential fate of this fresh water in regions of deep water formation has led many to speculate that the accelerating melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3, 4) will stratify the subpolar gyre, slow or stop the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (57), and trigger nonlinear shifts in future climate sensitivity (8). However, the fresh water on the East Greenland shelf is also supplied by the Arctic via Fram Strait (9, 10), and the Arctic may play a larger role in setting the coastal current’s variability than the input from Greenland (11, 12). This distinction between the two source regions is particularly important because fresh water stored in the Beaufort Gyre may be released in pulses when the anticyclonic winds periodically weaken (13), whereas input from the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely increase more gradually. The existence of a continuous pathway for the EGCC from Fram Strait to Cape Farewell will determine whether both sources of fresh water will primarily affect deep-water formation in the Greenland and Iceland Seas or continue southward into the North Atlantic and affect convection in the subpolar gyre.


                        Direct observations of the EGCC are plentiful south of Denmark Strait (1, 2, 11, 1418), but the current’s evolution north of 66°N is poorly known. A series of observational and theoretical papers (17, 19) suggested that the EGCC could emerge from the interaction of the East Greenland Current with the deep Kangerdlugssuaq Trough. In this conceptual model, a net input of fresh water into the trough splits into the coastal current south of Denmark Strait and a return flow out of the trough. Although this model does not require a coastal current upstream of Denmark Strait, such a coastal current has been observed in the Nordic domain as far north as Fram Strait (20, 21), referred to as the Polar Surface Water Jet (21). This raises the question of whether the EGCC south of Denmark Strait is supplied by more northerly sources.


                        In this study, we use shipboard hydrographic data from multiple cruises, a high-resolution regional ocean circulation model, and historical surface drifters to address the connectivity of the coastal current across Denmark Strait. We find that while the coastal current does indeed connect across Denmark Strait, it is enhanced by flow diverted inshore from the shelfbreak north of the strait, with little input from the Greenland Ice Sheet. This onshore flow is due to both downwelling-favorable winds pushing fresh water closer to the coast and a geostrophic onshore flow induced by the widening of the shelf at Denmark Strait. This process may be broadly applicable to other buoyant coastal current systems. Last, surface drifter tracks along the East Greenland shelf demonstrate that the coastal current flows continuously from Fram Strait to Cape Farewell.

                        https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/43/eabc4254
                        "when i run outta weed, i smoke match sticks...
                        that first hit is FIRE!!!"


                        "I'm not always a dick...but when I am, I drink cheap beer".

                        Comment


                          The uncertain future of the oceans

                          Study analyzes the reaction of plankton communities to increased carbon dioxide


                          26 October 2020 / Kiel. Marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles react very sensitively to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) - but the effects are far more complex than previously thought. This is shown in a study published by a team of researchers from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel in the journal Nature Climate Change. Data were combined from five large-scale field experiments, which investigated how the carbon cycle within plankton communities reacts to the increase of CO2.

                          The ocean plays a key role in the current climate change, as it absorbs a considerable part of the atmospheric carbon dioxide emitted by mankind. On the one hand, this slows down the heating of the climate, and on the other hand, the dissolution of CO2 in seawater leads to acidification of the oceans. This has far-reaching consequences for many marine organisms and thus also for the oceanic carbon cycle. One of the most important mechanisms in this cycle, is called the biological carbon pump. Part of the biomass that phytoplankton forms in the surface ocean through photosynthesis sinks to the depths in the form of small carbonaceous particles. As a result, the carbon is stored for a long time in the deep sea. The ocean thus acts as a carbon sink in the climate system. How strongly this biological pump acts varies greatly from region to region and depends on the composition of species in the ecosystem.
                          The study, which has now been published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is one of the most comprehensive studies so far on the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. Scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel have now been able to show for the first time that ocean acidification influences the carbon content of sinking organic material, and thus the biological pump. Surprisingly, the observed changes were highly variable. The carbon content of sinking particles increased or decreased significantly with increasing CO2, depending on the composition of species and the structure of the food web. Since the underlying data cover a wide range of ocean regions, this seems to be a global phenomenon. These findings allow a completely new assessment of the effects of ocean acidification.
                          Dr. Jan Taucher, marine biologist and main author of the study, says: "Interestingly, we found that bacterial and animal plankton, such as small crustaceans, play a key role in how the carbon cycle and biological pump respond to ocean acidification. Until now, it has been widely held that biogeochemical changes are mainly driven by reactions of phytoplankton. Therefore, even modern Earth system models do not take into account the interactions we observe between the marine food web and the carbon cycle. Our findings thus help to make climate models more realistic and improve climate projections".
                          Up to now, most of the knowledge on this topic has been based on idealized laboratory experiments, which only represent ecological interactions and the dynamics of the complex marine food web in a highly simplified way. This makes it difficult to transfer such results to real ocean conditions and project them into the future. In order to gain a more realistic insight, the study summarizes several field experiments that were conducted with large-volume test facilities, so-called mesocosms, in different ocean regions, from arctic to subtropical waters.
                          Mesocosms are, so to speak, oversized test tubes in the ocean, in which changes in environmental conditions in a closed but otherwise natural ecosystem can be studied. For the present study, a large amount of data from five mesocosm experiments was synthesized to provide a more precise picture of plankton communities and biogeochemical processes within the ecosystem. A total of over ten thousand data points were included in the analysis.
                          The newly gained knowledge can now be used to implement the complex ecological interactions in Earth system models, thus contributing to further improve climate projections.

                          Reference:
                          Taucher, J., T. Boxhammer, L.T. Bach, A. J. Paul, M. Schartau, P. Stange and U. Riebesell, 2020: Changing carbon-to-nitrogen ratios of organic-matter export under ocean acidification. Nat. Clim. Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00915-5


                          https://www.geomar.de/en/news/articl...stoffkreislauf


                          Irregular Appearances of Glacial and Interglacial Climate States
                          A clearer picture of the sequence of glacial and interglacial periods
                          [26. October 2020] During the last 2.6 million years of Earth’s climate has alterd between glacial and interglacial states. As such, there have been times in which the transition between the two climate states appeared with either regular or irregular periodicity. AWI researcher Peter Köhler has now discovered that the irregular appearance of interglacials has been more frequent than previously thought. His study makes a significant contribution to our understanding of Earth’s fundamental climate changes.
                          In order to understand human beings’ role in the development of our current climate, we have to look back a long way, since there has always been climate change – albeit over vastly different timescales than the anthropogenic climate change, which is mainly due to the use of fossil fuels over the past 200 years. Without humans, for millions of years, climate altered between glacial and interglacial states over periods of many thousands of years, mainly because of the Earth’s tilt which changes by a few degrees with a periodicity of 41,000 years. This in turn changes the angle at which the sun’s rays strike Earth – and as such the energy that reaches the planet, especially at high latitudes in summer. However, there is strong evidence that during the course of the last 2.6 million years, interglacials have repeatedly been ‘skipped’. The Northern Hemisphere – particularly North America – remained frozen for long periods, despite the angle of the axial tilt changing to such an extent that more solar energy once again reached Earth during the summer, which should have melted the inland ice masses. This means Earth’s tilt can’t be the sole reason for Earth's climate to alter between glacial and interglacial states.



                          Aerial view of the Beyond EPICA camp (Photo: Beyond EPICA)



                          In order to solve the puzzle, climate researchers are investigating more closely at what points in Earth’s history irregularities occurred. Together with colleagues at Utrecht University, physicist Peter Köhler from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) has now made a significant contribution towards providing a clearer picture of the sequence of glacial and interglacial periods over the last 2.6 million years. Until now, experts thought that, especially over the past 1.0 million years, glacial and interglacial periods deviated from their 41,000- year cycle, and that interglacial periods were skipped, as a result of which some glacial periods lasted for 80,0000 or even 120,000 years. “For the period between 2.6 and 1.0 million years ago, it was assumed that the rhythm was 41,000 years,” says Peter Köhler. But as his study, which has now been published in the scientific journal Nature Communications, shows, there were also repeated irregularities during the period between 2.6 and 1.0 million years ago.
                          Köhler’s study is particularly interesting because he re-evaluated a well-known dataset that researchers have been using for several years – the LR04 climate dataset – yet arrived at completely different conclusions. This dataset consists of a global evaluation of core samples from deep-sea sediments that are millions of years old, and includes measurements from the ancient shells of microscopic, single-celled marine organisms – foraminifera – that were deposited on the ocean floor. Foraminifera incorporate oxygen from the seawater into their calcium shells. But over millennia, the level of specific oxygen isotopes – oxygen atoms that have differing numbers of neutrons and therefore different masses – varies in seawater.

                          The LR04 dataset contains measurements of the ratio of the heavy oxygen isotope 18O to the lighter 16O. The ratio of 18O/16O stored in the foraminifera’s shells depends on the water temperature. But there is also another effect that leads to relatively large amounts of 18O being found in the foraminifera’s shells in glacial periods: when, during the course of a glacial period, there is heavy snowfall on land, which leads to the formation of thick ice sheets, the sea level falls – in the period studied, by as much as 120 m. Since 18O is heavier than 16O, water molecules containing this heavy isotope evaporate less readily than molecules containing the lighter isotope. As such, comparatively more 18O remains in the ocean and the 18O content of the foraminifera shells increases. “If you take the LR04 dataset at face value, it means you blur two effects – the influence of ocean temperature and that of land ice, or rather that of sea level change,” says Peter Köhler. “This makes statements regarding the alternation of the glacial periods uncertain.” And there is an additional factor: climate researchers mainly determine the sequence of glacial periods on the basis of glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. But using 18O values doesn’t allow us to say whether prehistoric glaciation chiefly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere or in Antarctica.


                          Aerial view of the Beyond EPICA camp (Photo: Beyond EPICA)


                          Computer model separates the influencing parameters

                          In an attempt to solve this problem, Köhler and his team evaluated the LR04 dataset in a completely different way. The data was fed into a computer model that simulates the growth and melting of the large continental ice sheets. What sets it apart: the model is capable of separating the influence of temperature and that of sea level change on the 18O concentration. Furthermore, it can accurately analyse where and when snow falls and the ice increases – more in the Northern Hemisphere or in Antarctica. “Mathematicians call this separation a deconvolution,” Köhler explains, “which our model is capable of delivering.” The results show that the sequence of glacials and interglacials was irregular even in the period 2.6 to 1.0 million years ago – a finding that could be crucial in the coming years. As part of the ongoing major EU project ‘BE-OIC (Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice Core)’, researchers are drilling deeper than ever before into the Antarctic ice. With the oldest ice core recovered to date, ‘EPICA’, they have ‘only’ travelled back roughly 800,000 years into the past. The ancient ice provides, among other things, information on how much carbon dioxide Earth’s atmosphere contained at that time. With ‘Beyond EPICA’ they will delve circa 1.5 million years into the past. By combining the carbon dioxide measurements with Köhler’s analyses, valuable insights can be gained into the relation between these two factors – the fluctuations in the sequence of glacials and the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. And this can help us understand the fundamental relationship between greenhouse gases and climate changes in Earth’s glacial history.

                          Original publication

                          The study has now been released in Nature Communications:
                          Köhler, P., van de Wal, R.S.W., Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland. Nat Commun 11, 5124 (2020). DOI:10.1038/s41467-020-18897-5


                          one more...


                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCha9_U8Dlk


                          [youtubeif]jCha9_U8Dlk[/youtubeif]
                          "when i run outta weed, i smoke match sticks...
                          that first hit is FIRE!!!"


                          "I'm not always a dick...but when I am, I drink cheap beer".

                          Comment


                            greetings on a cool but not cold evening in upstate NY
                            get down to it and it just isn't all that cold in many places
                            enjoy the hot up in northern Siberia, what could it hurt?

                            Monthly Temperature: November 2020

                            The combined global average temperature over the land and ocean surfaces for November 2020 was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F). This was the second warmest November in the 141-year global record, behind the record warm November set in 2015 (+1.01°C / +1.82°F). The 10 warmest Novembers have all occurred since 2004; the five warmest Novembers have occurred since 2013. November 2020 also marked the 44th consecutive November and the 431st consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.
                            The month of November was characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the globe, with the most notable warm temperature departures from average across western and northern Alaska, most of the contiguous U.S., northern Europe, northern Asia, Australia, and across parts of South America, the North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea and parts of the western Antarctic, where temperatures were at least 3.0°C (5.4°F) above average. Record-warm November temperatures were observed across parts each of the continents where data is available and across parts of all of the major oceans. As a whole, about 6.74% of the world's land and ocean surfaces had a record-warm November temperature—the fourth highest November percentage since records began in 1951. Only Novembers of 2015 (9.73%), 2019 (9.23%), and 2010 (7.61%) had a higher percentage of record warm November temperatures. Cooler-than-average November temperatures were observed across parts of Canada, northern Africa, southwestern Asia, across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, the northern Atlantic and southern oceans. However, no land or ocean areas had record-cold November temperatures.

                            November 2020 Blended Land and Sea Surface
                            Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius


                            November 2020 Blended Land and Sea Surface
                            Temperature Percentiles

                            According to NCEI's regional analysis, Oceania had its warmest November on record, with a temperature departure from average of +2.06°C (+3.71°F). This value shattered the previous record of 1.85°C (3.33°F) by 0.21°C (0.38°F). Seven of Oceania's ten warmest Novembers have occurred since 2002. Australia had its warmest November in the nation's 111-year record with a national mean temperature departure of +2.47°C (+4.45°F). This surpassed the now second highest November temperature set in 2014 by 0.40°C (0.72°F). The national maximum and minimum temperatures were also the highest on record. All regions had a top five warm November, with South Australia and the Northern Territory having their warmest November on record. New Zealand also had a very warm November, with a national temperature of 14.6°C (58.3°F) or 0.9°C (1.6°F) above the 1981–2010 average. November 2020 marked New Zealand's 46th consecutive month with temperatures above average. Several locations across New Zealand had a top five warm November. Of note, the town of Motueka had their warmest November since temperature records began in 1956.
                            Europe, as a whole, had its second highest November temperature departure on record at +2.15°C (+3.87°F), which is 0.33°C (0.59°F) less than the record set in 2015. The United Kingdom's national mean temperature for November 2020 was 7.7°C (45.9°F) or 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average—this was the sixth highest since national records began in 1884. Regionally, England and Scotland had their fifth warmest November on record. According to Norway's Meteorologisk Institutt, Norway's November 2020 temperature was 4.6°C (8.3°F) above average and tied with 2011 as the highest November since national records began in 1900. Spain had its third warmest November since national records began in 1961, with a temperature departure of 2.0°C (3.6°F) above average. Only Novembers of 1983 and 2006 were warmer.
                            South America (third warmest), the Hawaiian region (fourth warmest), and Asia (fifth warmest) had a November temperature that ranked among the five highest on record. November 2020 was Kingdom of Bahrain's warmest November since national records began in 1902, with a mean temperature departure of +1.9°C (+3.4°F). The previous record set in 1954 and, again in 2017, was 0.2°C (0.4°F) cooler. The nation's minimum and maximum temperatures were the second and fifth highest on record, respectively.
                            current grow: www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?p=7872194

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                              November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
                              Author:
                              Emily Becker
                              November 12, 2020

                              La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.


                              The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the Niño 3.4 region of tropical Pacific was -1.3°C according to the ERSSTv5 dataset, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value in the ERSSTv5 record, which dates back to 1950. I’ll talk more about feats of strength (vis-à-vis La Niña, that is) later.


                              October 2020 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Lots of cool water at the equator in the Pacific. Image from Data Snapshots on Climate.gov.

                              Let’s count our chickens

                              First, we’ll check in with the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. One of the ways we monitor the atmospheric response to ENSO is through satellite images of the amount of thermal radiation leaving the Earth’s surface. Clouds block this outgoing long-wave radiation, so when the satellites see less outgoing long-wave radiation than average, it means more clouds and rain than average. Conversely, when the satellite picks up more OLR, the skies are clearer than average.


                              During La Niña, we’d expect to see less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific and more rain over Indonesia—the strengthened Walker circulation, La Niña’s atmospheric response. The OLR map for October 2020 shows this pattern clearly.


                              Outgoing long-wave radiation anomaly in October 2020. Regions with more clouds and rain than average are shown in green; areas with fewer clouds and less rain are shown in brown. Figure from the IRI from CPC data.

                              Another component of the strengthened Walker circulation is stronger Pacific trade winds, the near-surface winds that blow from east to west near the equator, and stronger west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere. Both strengthened wind patterns were observed during October, providing more evidence that the ocean-atmosphere coupling we expect during both phases of ENSO is present.


                              As Michelle discussed just a couple of weeks ago, this coupling is a feedback mechanism that strengthens ENSO. In the case of La Niña, cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific mean the difference between the warm western Pacific and the cooler central Pacific is greater than average. This greater difference leads to the stronger Walker circulation, and the stronger trade winds further cool the surface water in the central Pacific and also pile up warm water in the west. For more details on this feedback, and a whiff of fresh-baked bread, check out Michelle’s post.


                              Eggs in baskets

                              Several computer models are suggesting that this La Niña is likely to be a stronger event, with a Niño 3.4 anomaly during November–January cooler than -1.5°C.


                              Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index. Dynamical model data (black line) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): darker gray envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter gray shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data.

                              The substantial atmospheric coupling supports these predictions, as does the amount of cooler water under the surface. These cooler subsurface waters, which are also evidence of the coupled system, will provide a source of cooler-than-average water for the surface over the next few months. October’s average subsurface temperature was the 7th-coolest October since 1979.
                              The Climate Prediction Center is now providing a probabilistic outlook for the strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Tom described this new technique in a blog post a little while back—it’s too much to get into here, so please check out his post for the details. While forecast probabilities are provided for every season, it is the November–January season that has the largest chance (54%) of Niño-3.4 being below -1.5°C. This would make it a strong event; of the 23 La Niña events since 1950, seven have had maximum Niño 3.4 cooler than -1.5°C.


                              What came first

                              As we’ve observed in a few earlier posts about this La Niña, it appears to be relatively rare in our observed record (starting in 1950) for La Niña to develop following a neutral or slightly warm winter like we had in 2019–2020. I got curious about this, so I thought I’d exercise my newfound Python skills a bit and look at the data. (Python is a computer programming language. I’m not a snake wrangler…yet!)


                              Relationship between the Niño3.4 index in one November–January (vertical axis) with the Niño3.4 the following October (horizontal axis). Figure by climate.gov; data from CPC.

                              It turns out that the previous La Niña events we’ve observed so far (dots below the blue line) have all been preceded by either El Niño or La Niña. 2020 stands out, following a winter where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were slightly warm, but not quite El Niño. Since we only have about 70 years of observations, it’s hard to say exactly how unusual this is—we’d need to do more studies with climate models to find out, but that’s a lot for my monthly ENSO Blog post, to say nothing of my Python skills!


                              When the conditions come home to roost

                              We pay so much attention to ENSO because it affects global weather and climate; a stronger La Niña event means these effects are more likely. We’ve already seen hints of some of the weather and climate patterns we’d expect during La Niña. The most obvious one of these is the extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña leads to reduced shear (the change in wind from the surface to the upper levels) in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, allowing hurricanes to grow and strengthen.


                              Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains. I wrote about potential impacts in more detail last month, so check that out if you missed it.


                              https://climate.gov/news-features/bl...st-us-chickens
                              "when i run outta weed, i smoke match sticks...
                              that first hit is FIRE!!!"


                              "I'm not always a dick...but when I am, I drink cheap beer".

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                                in Southern Oregon, we have lost the hope for a White Christmas.

                                it's OK with me, I'd rather not be snowed in like in some previous years.

                                I walked up to the top of the hill this morning, and noticed that the back hill was already getting started on 2021 grass crop.

                                Little tiny grass seedlings everywhere that there is exposed soil.
                                Never Under-estimate the Psychopathic-ness of a Politician

                                who is in Save the Children Mode.

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