This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

[Robrites]

Dangerous heat wave to hit Southern California this weekend

Dangerous heat wave to hit Southern California this weekend

A dangerous heat wave is expected to hit Southern California this weekend, with the warmest temperatures forecast for Friday and Saturday, the National Weather Service said.


An excessive-heat watch is in effect for much of southwestern California for those days, the weather service said. Temperatures in the valleys, the lower mountains and desert locations are expected to range between 102 and 112 degrees. Parts of the coast could reach around 100 degrees.


The heat will be accompanied by very dry conditions, forecasters said, with the potential for low humidity. Northerly winds will also blow through portions of the region, with gusts up to 35 mph hitting the Santa Barbara coast.


Forecasters warned of a significant heat and fire threat and urged people to take necessary precautions.


“Stay hydrated, try to wear light clothes and light colors, and try to limit activity outside,” said Keily Delerme, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “Do not leave pets or kids in the car, even if it’s for a short period of time. It can be dangerous.”
Temperatures are expected to drop by about 10 degrees in Los Angeles by Sunday, Delerme said, with the weather slightly cooling into next week.


“Temperatures will be above normal, but in the 80s and 90s, and in coastal areas in the 70s,” she said. “It’s still going to be hot, but a few degrees less.”

Dangerous and possibly record breaking temperatures coming up on Friday and Saturday for #SoCal!! #CAwx #LAheat pic.twitter.com/UM6smJJXrU
— NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) July 4, 2018


​

 

[Robrites]

Southern California sets all-time heat records amid broiling conditions

Southern California sets all-time heat records amid broiling conditions

Many parts of Southern California hit new high-temperature marks Friday, with a few spots reaching the hottest readings ever recorded.


Among the places that set all-time records were Van Nuys Airport (117 degrees), Burbank Airport (114), UCLA (111), Santa Ana (114) and Ramona (115), according to the National Weather Service. Riverside tied its all-time high temperature of 118.


Downtown Los Angeles hit a new high for the day, at 108. Long Beach Airport hit 108 and Woodland Hills, 118.


The heat wave will continue this weekend, but forecasters said Friday marked the peak.


The broiling temperatures were the result of a strong high-pressure system combined with offshore winds blowing from the desert to the ocean, said Todd Hall, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Like many Southern Californians, Hall does not have air conditioning at home and was not looking forward to leaving his nice, cool office.


What you need to know about this weekend's heat wave and how to stay cool »

By midmorning Friday, it was already 105 degrees in Los Feliz as Zeneith Evenstar heaved a shopping cart full of her belongings uphill.


A petite homeless woman with graying hair, Evenstar, 56, said she knew how to keep cool after seven years of living on the streets. She pours water on herself as she walks her route collecting cans. She spends afternoons at her church. And she knows the patches of shade where she can rest and security guards won’t chase her away.


“I just keep going,” Evenstar said. “What can you do?”

A message board at Calvary Church on Shoup Avenue reads 117 degrees in West Hills. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)


Friday was forecast to be the peak of the heat wave, but triple-digit temperatures were expected to linger through the weekend, according to the weather service. Coastal areas also are expected to see temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s.


On the waterfront, temperatures soared to record-breaking heights Friday, climbing to 85 degrees in Newport Beach by the afternoon.


Thousands of beachgoers who sought relief wading in 65-degree ocean water were met with more accommodating conditions than earlier in the week. Sizable surf from Hurricane Fabio that had pounded south-facing beaches with 6- to 8-foot waves in Huntington Beach, Newport Beach and Laguna Beach beginning Wednesday had tapered off by Thursday night, lifeguards said.

 

['Boogieman']

If global warming could just hit Indiana around October/November I will be a happy man.

 

[Robrites]

Oregon's 2019 winter weather could be warm and dry, thanks to likely El Niño

Oregon's 2019 winter weather could be warm and dry, thanks to likely El Niño

There is a 70 percent chance that warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, commonly known as El Niño, will impact the Pacific Northwest during the coming winter, possibly bringing warmer and drier conditions to Oregon.
Forecasters caution, though, that predicting weather more than a week or so out is difficult at best.
Still, the warming of equatorial waters can affect weather across the country and around the globe, making normally cold winters abnormally warm and vice versa. The chances of an El Niño winter can have ramifications for everyone from winter sports enthusiasts to farmers to fishermen.
And it appears an El Niño is more likely than not.
"Forecasters ... favor the onset of El Niño in the coming months," the Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, said in its monthly forecast.
What that means locally is a little less certain, according to Laurel McCoy, a meteorologist with the service based in Portland.
"What it means for us is a little wishy-washy," she said. "Going back and looking at the all the Niño winters we've had, statistically, they tend to be warmer than average."
El Niño winter also tend to be drier than average, McCoy said, though precipitation is harder to predict than temperature.
"That doesn't mean that we won't see snow in the Cascades," she continued, though she said the region could see fewer low-elevation snow events.
Though the forecast isn't predetermined by any means, the prospect of a drier than average winter has some climatologists worried.
"Coming off of such a dry, hot summer, our snowpack is depleted," said Kathie Dello, a researcher at Oregon State University and Associate Director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. "We've already spent all our water savings."
According to federal drought monitors, nearly all of Oregon is in at least a moderate drought, with much of the state in either severe or extreme drought.
A drought map of Oregon shows nearly the whole the state in either moderate drought (beige), severe drought (orange) or extreme drought (red).
"We need a decent winter to bring us into next year," Dello said.

 

[cabo5150]

look into it

look into it

https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/climate-engineering-wildfires-to-temporarily-cool-earth/

 

[cabo5150]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=...D0iypsRXDSa1E&time_continue=164&v=-nmL0aTXXoM

 

[therevverend]

A buddy called up the other day. He was happy about the El Nino thinking we'd have warmer and drier weather in October. I had to give him the bad news.

This far north warmer means wetter not drier. Our weather is either cold and dry or wet and warm. We almost never get snow because we need a warm wet system hit a cold dry one out of the Frazier River valley. If it works right we get snow overnight and sun the next day along with cold temperatures. Used to happen several times a year, now maybe once a year if we're lucky.

The good news is that El Nino's don't hit us until late October, hopefully I'll be finished by then.

The greatest El Nino ever was in 1999. November 30th which is usually way past our first frost brought mild weather, lots of rain, and the WTO riots to Seattle. It also brought a huge second flush of psychedelic mushrooms, the most I've ever seen.

Every cop in the county was downtown chasing protesters. I was out rampaging through the bushes and fields behind the cop's horse farm. Normally when I'd be crouched down, butt in the air grabbing mushrooms I'd be looking over my shoulder every 30 seconds. Not that year!

I was still finding a few mushrooms past January 1, an all time record.

As a side note on how much the city has changed, last time I went back there homeless people had cardboard mats, garbage, empty malt liquor bottles, dirty underwear, human shit, toilet paper, all over. I found a few pinners (tiny baby mushrooms).

But when I went back to check on them a few days later they were gone and the mycelium was torn up. They'd been found and picked prematurely and the ground had been ruined so mushrooms won't grow there again. Very sad.

 

[Robrites]

This is a long range forecast...not sure how it will play out. I hope we get into November before a hard frost. Some years things don't finish up until Nov. 15th.

 

[Robrites]

Santa Ana winds pose extreme fire danger amid record heat, dry conditions across Sout

Santa Ana winds pose extreme fire danger amid record heat, dry conditions across Sout

Santa Ana winds pose extreme fire danger amid record heat, dry conditions across Southern California

Los Angeles Times (Los Angeles Times)

When the Charlie fire broke out in Castiac over the weekend, it exploded to 3,000 acres within hours as the flames chewed through dry brush.


But for as fast as the blaze moved, firefighters said it could have been so much worse if the Santa Ana winds had been blowing. Without the winds, firefighters were able to keep the Charlie fire away from homes, and by Monday it was 30% contained.


“We could have been there much longer,” said Tony Imbrenda, a captain with the Los Angeles County Fire Department.


The luck isn’t expected to last much longer. Southern California is entering its most destructive fire season, as hot winds from the east move in. Santa Ana winds pose a fire danger every year. But 2018 has been particularly brutal because record high temperatures and a lack of rain have left brush ready to burn.


From October 2017 through Sept. 24, 2018, downtown Los Angeles received about 4.7 inches of rain, making it the third-driest in 141 years, said former JPL climatologist William Patzert.


And in the seven Southern California counties, this year was the hottest summer in 124 years of records, according to data by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In Los Angeles County, average temperatures between June and August in 2017 and 2018 were tied for the highest on record.


These factors, combined with the ominous Santa Ana winds, are cause for concern, Patzert said.


“This is the time where we really have to be vigilant,” he said. “In the fall, two things happen. One is the beginning of the rainy season and the other thing is the arrival of the Santa Ana winds. So it’s a race to see which one arrives first.”


Last year, the rains never got here, and that spelled disaster. In December, a series of wind-whipped fires destroyed homes from San Diego north to Sylmar, Bel-Air and into Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.


The worst of those, the Thomas fire, for a time became the largest wildfire in modern California history as it swept from Ventura to Montecito. It burned more than 280,000 acres and destroyed more than 1,000 structures. It was surpassed in size this summer by the Mendocino Complex fire in Northern California.

Temperatures rising (Los)



The Santa Ana winds begin in September and slowly gain speed and intensity through December. This has been the period of some of Southern California’s worst blazes, including the 2003 October firestorm that destroyed thousands of homes.


Santa Ana winds are strong, extremely dry, downslope winds. They originate inland in desert regions of Southern California and northern Baja California and occur mainly in the fall and winter.


Most Santa Ana events are caused by high pressure in the the Great Basin and lower pressure off the coast. Air from areas of high pressure flows toward those of lower pressure, and the gradient, or difference, causes the intense winds.


When that air moves over the ridges and valleys and toward the California coast, it warms up because it’s under increasing pressure and lower elevation, said Mike Wofford, a forecaster with the National Weather Service.


“Our largest, most destructive fires are in the month of December, because of the winds,” said Imbrenda, the L.A. County Fire captain. “They directly relate to rapid spread.”


The National Weather Service said it cannot predict how severe the winds will be this season but will send out alerts when conditions become potentially dangerous.

 

[VonBudí]

Hope your doing well Robrites where ever you are.

Weather/length of string Question

Europe got hammered by drought last summer, winter was very dry & mild, is this all a nino/nina thing? possibly another dry summer?

 

[St. Phatty]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

From doing controlled burns, I know there's a time when the forest becomes very scary to be in, even with a small fire.

Sort of like a test moment. The test is, you can drop lit matches on the forest floor, when there's a light breeze, without it being a problem.

This year, that happened a few days ago. Late April, 2019. Caught me by surprise. A week ago I was doing a guerilla planting and the entire forest floor was wet leaves.

Glad it's been cool the last few days because I need to put covers on my water tanks and I don't want to lose water to evaporation.

The people I hear talking about Nino/Nina are the surfers trying to do surf forecasts.


I wonder if there is a new weather 'force' that sort of negates Nino/Nina. "Hot and getting hotter", e.g. the weather they had in Redding CA last July.

 

[aridbud]

Supposed to be a wetter summer due to Pacific air flows. We'll take the moisture as the SW is finally climbing out of severe drought these last 6-7 years.

Winter proved as much. Climatologists and hydrologists with the National Weather Service provided a favorable water supply outlook for the basin that feeds the Rio Grande, saying snowpack in the mountains where the headwaters form is about 135 percent above median levels.

 

[St. Phatty]

Supposed to be a wetter summer due to Pacific air flows. We'll take the moisture as the SW is finally climbing out of severe drought these last 6-7 years.

I would love to have some normal summer rain.

The last memorable summer rain we had was during a serious lightning storm that used my land as ground zero for about 15 minutes.

It dropped 2 inches of rain in 45 minutes. Totally screwed up fruit drying & other tasks.

It was blasting lightning bolts all the way to ground, in a forest that was very dry.

Then the water dropped.

It eventually dawned on me that walking around outdoors, trying to get photographs of that lightning, was not so smart. I had a camera on an aluminum ladder. Then realized - oh - aluminum, conductive, step away from ladder.

Finally a fire truck came. Neighbor had a leaf pile that was still on fire, after the 2 inches of rain.

 

[aridbud]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah, fire, wind storms, little rain, snow pack really did a number to vegetation, wildlife, water restrictions, etc. for years. Never complain about what falls from the sky unless it's ultra damaging to vehicles and living, breathing things.

 

[Cannabologist]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

From doing controlled burns, I know there's a time when the forest becomes very scary to be in, even with a small fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGosqRfMTMM

Watch this, then watch it again.. And again a few months later. I prob watch it every year now


The general basics are, el nino is the hot dry season, and la nina the cool wet season. This can vary some depending on your local area of course.


These cycles in essence dictate what the weather will be of the USA and Canada.

When they flip from el nino to la nina and back and forth, this causes lots of variability in the system, as it goes a little wacky trying to balance itself out from the change. This causes events like the polar vortex, (ie. nothing to do with global warming), which shifts the jet streams from the change in warming/cooling currents, again causing variability that takes time to balance out.



These periods last in cycles, there is a short 1.5 to 2 year cycle, a 10-15 year cycle, a 40 year cycle, and so on.

Once you realize these cycles, and your own local weather and how this pattern affects your local weather, you will be a fucking wizard.


Trust me - A fucking wizard. You're friends will hate you, because you will be able to forecast the weather so accurately. Your coworkers will be amazed, and steal your secrets and use them on other coworkers and clients as though they came up with it. You will be more accurate than any meteorologist. You will look up the farmers almanac and then say "oh ya, I guess I was right", and throw it away, you'll never need it again.


We just flipped from a la nina to el nino, this last la nina lasting about 1 and a half years... You'll remember the flip when california was screaming for rain, and dry for years, and then it flipped, and they flooded, and then flooded again the next year...

We've been in a long term el nino cycle (ie. the ~15 yr cycle) since the 2000s, and this also just ended as we flipped into la nina a couple years ago, which is also what made the la nina event extra strong since we are going into both a 2 year but also moving into the 10-15 year la nina cycle....

Now we are in a el nino and this'll last again another 1.5 to 2 years but we are in a longer term la nina now, so I wouldn't expect the highs we got from this el nino as we did the earlier 2000s to 2016.


meow meow meow

 

[Lyfespan]

with all these chemtrails being made off the coast of socal, we are getting very unpredictable weather, seems this is also causing issues everywhere..

im now seeing rain that's nowhere in the forecasts this year

 

[therevverend]

The forecast for my part of the world is hotter and dryer then normal through July. On the one hand it's nice for a gardener, but it's really 3 or 4 weeks at the end of September/early October that make or break my year. The hot weather means another bad fire season is likely. We've had strange temperature fluctuations through the winter into spring but there's lots of snow in the mountains. The pattern has been lots of rain then lots of dry but in the end it doesn't matter as long as the rain falls. The question is how quick the hot will dry out the forest tinder.

 

[St. Phatty]

The question is how quick the hot will dry out the forest tinder.

There's a word when you grow regular veg. garden in the forest.

wild-crafting ? maybe.

Anyway, about 2 weeks ago I pushed through the thicket of baby trees in one area of the hill in my backyard, to find a flat area covered in wet leaves. Right after some recent light rain.

All the leaves were wet. I planted a mini veg. garden and put wire mesh covers over the holes with the seeds.

1 Week Later, I went back to the same area, about 50 yards down, to take a bite out of a big pile of dry wood that is a fire concern.

I made a mistake. The fire almost got away from me.

I was surprised how a week of not much heat (70 degrees F) and 'sunny' just plain changed the forest.

And that was just 70 degrees.

Here comes Triple Digits !!!

 

[igrowone]

old thread but some new news
current la nina is being projected to end in the next few months
probably - 60% - for those that find this useful

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

[Cannabologist]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

El nino is the hot dry season


la nina is the cool wet season




These periods have yearly, multi-year, decade-long, and hundreds years long cycles.


It is caused by warming or cooling of the pacific waters, which pushes air currents up along cali to washington and across the USA.



There can be some interesting weather when you are in a short term la nina/el nino and a long term one (ie. the 1-1/2 yearly cycle versus the ~7-12 year cycle).


When you have el nini cali will be hot, dry, and burn. When it flips you get all the rains.


If you learn the el nino/la nina cycles you can predict the weather of the west with amazing accuracy, and even predict the weather in the east as it also affects things here, to the point people will think you are a wizard.


You will never be tricked or confused by lying news media and moron claims of "global warming" (the earth has been COOLING the last 10+years)