This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

[St. Phatty]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

From doing controlled burns, I know there's a time when the forest becomes very scary to be in, even with a small fire.

Sort of like a test moment. The test is, you can drop lit matches on the forest floor, when there's a light breeze, without it being a problem.

This year, that happened a few days ago. Late April, 2019. Caught me by surprise. A week ago I was doing a guerilla planting and the entire forest floor was wet leaves.

Glad it's been cool the last few days because I need to put covers on my water tanks and I don't want to lose water to evaporation.

The people I hear talking about Nino/Nina are the surfers trying to do surf forecasts.


I wonder if there is a new weather 'force' that sort of negates Nino/Nina. "Hot and getting hotter", e.g. the weather they had in Redding CA last July.

[aridbud]

Supposed to be a wetter summer due to Pacific air flows. We'll take the moisture as the SW is finally climbing out of severe drought these last 6-7 years.

Winter proved as much. Climatologists and hydrologists with the National Weather Service provided a favorable water supply outlook for the basin that feeds the Rio Grande, saying snowpack in the mountains where the headwaters form is about 135 percent above median levels.

[St. Phatty]

Supposed to be a wetter summer due to Pacific air flows. We'll take the moisture as the SW is finally climbing out of severe drought these last 6-7 years.

I would love to have some normal summer rain.

The last memorable summer rain we had was during a serious lightning storm that used my land as ground zero for about 15 minutes.

It dropped 2 inches of rain in 45 minutes. Totally screwed up fruit drying & other tasks.

It was blasting lightning bolts all the way to ground, in a forest that was very dry.

Then the water dropped.

It eventually dawned on me that walking around outdoors, trying to get photographs of that lightning, was not so smart. I had a camera on an aluminum ladder. Then realized - oh - aluminum, conductive, step away from ladder.

Finally a fire truck came. Neighbor had a leaf pile that was still on fire, after the 2 inches of rain.

[aridbud]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah, fire, wind storms, little rain, snow pack really did a number to vegetation, wildlife, water restrictions, etc. for years. Never complain about what falls from the sky unless it's ultra damaging to vehicles and living, breathing things.

[Cannabologist]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

From doing controlled burns, I know there's a time when the forest becomes very scary to be in, even with a small fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGosqRfMTMM

Watch this, then watch it again.. And again a few months later. I prob watch it every year now


The general basics are, el nino is the hot dry season, and la nina the cool wet season. This can vary some depending on your local area of course.


These cycles in essence dictate what the weather will be of the USA and Canada.

When they flip from el nino to la nina and back and forth, this causes lots of variability in the system, as it goes a little wacky trying to balance itself out from the change. This causes events like the polar vortex, (ie. nothing to do with global warming), which shifts the jet streams from the change in warming/cooling currents, again causing variability that takes time to balance out.



These periods last in cycles, there is a short 1.5 to 2 year cycle, a 10-15 year cycle, a 40 year cycle, and so on.

Once you realize these cycles, and your own local weather and how this pattern affects your local weather, you will be a fucking wizard.


Trust me - A fucking wizard. You're friends will hate you, because you will be able to forecast the weather so accurately. Your coworkers will be amazed, and steal your secrets and use them on other coworkers and clients as though they came up with it. You will be more accurate than any meteorologist. You will look up the farmers almanac and then say "oh ya, I guess I was right", and throw it away, you'll never need it again.


We just flipped from a la nina to el nino, this last la nina lasting about 1 and a half years... You'll remember the flip when california was screaming for rain, and dry for years, and then it flipped, and they flooded, and then flooded again the next year...

We've been in a long term el nino cycle (ie. the ~15 yr cycle) since the 2000s, and this also just ended as we flipped into la nina a couple years ago, which is also what made the la nina event extra strong since we are going into both a 2 year but also moving into the 10-15 year la nina cycle....

Now we are in a el nino and this'll last again another 1.5 to 2 years but we are in a longer term la nina now, so I wouldn't expect the highs we got from this el nino as we did the earlier 2000s to 2016.


meow meow meow

[Lyfespan]

with all these chemtrails being made off the coast of socal, we are getting very unpredictable weather, seems this is also causing issues everywhere..

im now seeing rain that's nowhere in the forecasts this year

[therevverend]

The forecast for my part of the world is hotter and dryer then normal through July. On the one hand it's nice for a gardener, but it's really 3 or 4 weeks at the end of September/early October that make or break my year. The hot weather means another bad fire season is likely. We've had strange temperature fluctuations through the winter into spring but there's lots of snow in the mountains. The pattern has been lots of rain then lots of dry but in the end it doesn't matter as long as the rain falls. The question is how quick the hot will dry out the forest tinder.

[St. Phatty]

The question is how quick the hot will dry out the forest tinder.

There's a word when you grow regular veg. garden in the forest.

wild-crafting ? maybe.

Anyway, about 2 weeks ago I pushed through the thicket of baby trees in one area of the hill in my backyard, to find a flat area covered in wet leaves. Right after some recent light rain.

All the leaves were wet. I planted a mini veg. garden and put wire mesh covers over the holes with the seeds.

1 Week Later, I went back to the same area, about 50 yards down, to take a bite out of a big pile of dry wood that is a fire concern.

I made a mistake. The fire almost got away from me.

I was surprised how a week of not much heat (70 degrees F) and 'sunny' just plain changed the forest.

And that was just 70 degrees.

Here comes Triple Digits !!!

[igrowone]

old thread but some new news
current la nina is being projected to end in the next few months
probably - 60% - for those that find this useful

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

[Cannabologist]

I don't understand El Nino/La Nina.

El nino is the hot dry season


la nina is the cool wet season




These periods have yearly, multi-year, decade-long, and hundreds years long cycles.


It is caused by warming or cooling of the pacific waters, which pushes air currents up along cali to washington and across the USA.



There can be some interesting weather when you are in a short term la nina/el nino and a long term one (ie. the 1-1/2 yearly cycle versus the ~7-12 year cycle).


When you have el nini cali will be hot, dry, and burn. When it flips you get all the rains.


If you learn the el nino/la nina cycles you can predict the weather of the west with amazing accuracy, and even predict the weather in the east as it also affects things here, to the point people will think you are a wizard.


You will never be tricked or confused by lying news media and moron claims of "global warming" (the earth has been COOLING the last 10+years)

[trichrider]

El nino is the hot dry season


la nina is the cool wet season




These periods have yearly, multi-year, decade-long, and hundreds years long cycles.


It is caused by warming or cooling of the pacific waters, which pushes air currents up along cali to washington and across the USA.



There can be some interesting weather when you are in a short term la nina/el nino and a long term one (ie. the 1-1/2 yearly cycle versus the ~7-12 year cycle).


When you have el nini cali will be hot, dry, and burn. When it flips you get all the rains.


If you learn the el nino/la nina cycles you can predict the weather of the west with amazing accuracy, and even predict the weather in the east as it also affects things here, to the point people will think you are a wizard.


You will never be tricked or confused by lying news media and moron claims of "global warming" (the earth has been COOLING the last 10+years)

just a few posts up^^^^^this prediction was explained. spot on.
igrowone's post verified it.
guy's a wizard.

[Dube]

El nino is the hot dry season


la nina is the cool wet season




These periods have yearly, multi-year, decade-long, and hundreds years long cycles.


It is caused by warming or cooling of the pacific waters, which pushes air currents up along cali to washington and across the USA.



There can be some interesting weather when you are in a short term la nina/el nino and a long term one (ie. the 1-1/2 yearly cycle versus the ~7-12 year cycle).


When you have el nini cali will be hot, dry, and burn. When it flips you get all the rains.


If you learn the el nino/la nina cycles you can predict the weather of the west with amazing accuracy, and even predict the weather in the east as it also affects things here, to the point people will think you are a wizard.


You will never be tricked or confused by lying news media and moron claims of "global warming" (the earth has been COOLING the last 10+years)

The climate may be cooling in the short term, but not in the long term. You are being misleading.

[Cannabologist]

The climate may be cooling in the short term, but not in the long term. You are being misleading.

The long term like what, thousands and thousands of years??? Are you one of those gobble warming types



The earth has been warming since the end of the last ice age and will continue to warm for thousands of years until this warming peaks, levels off, and we move into another ice age. This process will take anywhere from 5k to 20k years.

Nothing going on today, tomorrow, in the past, or in the future, has to do with humans or human activity.



CO2 is a (great) benefit to plants and has no effect on temperature - the physics of CO2, cloud cover, and the carbon cycle are 3 reasons alone that CO2 is prevented from ever acting as a warming agent in the environment.

Not to mention, it is temperature that makes CO2 go up or down in the environment, not the other way around


So, the type of cloud cover that matters here, is low atmospheric cloud cover. These clouds COOL the earth. And it turns out, low atmospheric cloud cover has more of a cooling effect on the planet than all green house gasses combined, and then some.



The effect is so over-dominant to other effects, it's pretty staggering really.... And once again, it is water vapor, not other minuscule greenhouse gasses, that is the real factor here over any and all others.


This water vapor, incidentally, absorbs all the infrared radiation before other greenhouse gasses like CO2 can absorb that radiation, meaning there isn't any radiation, ie. heat, left over for CO2 to absorb, hold on to, and then re-radiate later (and there's another big point to this as well..!!!) and thus act as a greenhouse gas... Water does all the work first.


And remember what I just said about absorb, hold onto, and re-radiate later? Well CO2 wouldn't be a greenhouse gas if it just absorbed heat and them immediately re-radiated it - the reason it is thought to act as a greenhouse gas is because it holds onto this heat for a period of time, then re-emits it later on.


This period if time has actually never been experimentally observed or verified to happen - it is only assumed and modeled.

The modeling for this re-remittance of heat varies - most estimates put it at around 20 to 40 years, with some as high as 50 or 60 years.



One asshole (because of the problems we will see with this in a moment), was able to come up with modeling that puts to 10-20 years... Which, doesn't work for the global warming hypothesis if it only holds onto heat for 10 to 20 years, then re-emits it, so anyway...

So we'll take for given an estimate, just for the warmist's sake, at 20 years time, which is the number most will use for this process.



BUT! What this whole idea hinges upon regardless is residence time, ie. how long CO2 is actually in the atmosphere before it is re-absorbed and moves somewhere else in the carbon cycle, like plants or the oceans.

This we absolutely know and have experimentally verified....

And that time is an average of 5 years.

In other words, CO2 is emitted from a source anywhere, that CO2 is then re-absorbed somewhere else in the system after 5 years time.




20 years............ 5 years.




20 years............... 5 years....


THE CO2 IS NEVER AROUND LONG ENOUGH IN THE SYSTEM TO EVER ABSORB ANY HEAT AND RE-EMIT IT LATER

Co2 is not, never was, and simply by the very nature of physics and other mechanisms on earth can never be a greenhouse gas.


You can take it into a lab and do whatever you want with it, but it will never ever in nature be a warming agent.



So where IS a majority of that extra CO2 coming from then if not humans? Its coming from the oceans. As the oceans change in temperature, they either suck up or release CO2.



The total amount changes over time, but what is absorbed also remains constant over time - in other words CO2 is released, and absorbed, but what is released is re-absorbed after 5 years, which is then replaced by what was released prior to that, and is then re-absorbed again 5 years later.

More off-gassing releases more CO2, which can change the total amount, but what's absorbed factors with this.



Again, with no amount of time is CO2 ever in the system long enough to absorb enough heat to re-emit later and act as a greenhouse gas in the system.



It is cycled in the system somewhere else before this heat absorption and release process can ever take place.

The amount of CO2 that is naturally around in the system pales in comparison to what humans emit - our CO2 contributions are minuscule, a drop in the bucket.



But it doesn't mean we shouldn't try - the more CO2 we emit, the bigger, stronger, and faster plants grow, and the more they yield. So we should do all we can to put MORE CO2 into the environment and give nature a boost.



The hypothesis that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can cause global warming or cooling, is false